Hot PPI, Anthropic Slows, and Elon's AI Game Theory

0:00What is up, everybody? Good morning and welcome back to another episode of Full Port.

0:05I’m joined, as always, with my fantastic host and partner in crime, gmoney.

0:11We’ve been going over a lot of the AI effect that we’re seeing throughout the entire market, as well as CPI, PPI, and some other overall news that, again, is affecting a little bit of a red market this morning.

0:27But how are you doing today, Mr. G-Money?

0:31A little bit of red market is an understatement. It’s a massacre out there.

0:36So I’m doing well. I think we should kind of just get right into it because we have a ton of stuff to go over.

0:44First off, I think the PPI number, CPI came in hot yesterday, started weighing on all risk assets.

0:53The PPI number came in even hotter today, which is also significant because PPI is the producer price index, whereas CPI is the consumer price index.

1:04So inflation showing up in PPI usually is a signal that it’s coming to CPI, right?

1:13So it means like we’re not topping. Rate hike odds for this month have started skyrocketing after yesterday’s CPI.

1:23So there’s that, right? Inflation is hot. No imminent rate cuts.

1:29I think that’s probably why we’ve started seeing Bitcoin and crypto in general.

1:33They started getting weak yesterday. They got weaker again this morning, although Bitcoin looks like it’s kind of bounced back a little bit.

1:43But I think to me the bigger news in everything is Anthropic.

1:50And basically on this roadshow that they’ve been going around, I guess they came out and they published what their revenue numbers were or they came out and publicly said what their revenue numbers were last night.

2:05And revenue growth has slowed in Q3 and significantly where I think it was like over 100% year over year last quarter.

2:16And I think or maybe it’s quarter over quarter. I’m not exactly sure, but but but growth has slowed.

2:22And why is that significant is because the entire AI trade and the people that have been bears are telling you, oh, like they’re not going to generate the revs to justify all this CapEx build.

2:35So that has I think like just from like looking at things and I know we were talking about it on Tuesday show where I was like a Monday.

2:43I was like I was looking to sell some exposure, but then I was like, oh, no, like it’s a it’s a federal holiday.

2:50So I didn’t Tuesday after the show. I ended up selling some of my AI exposure yesterday.

2:57I sold most of it. I think I have smaller ish positions, much smaller positions.

3:06I kept NVIDIA and I kept Nebius. I sold out of all my Micron stuff yesterday just because the news coming out on Micron as well as Elon kind of.

3:19Also, like being really bearish on the timeline on it, and I want to get into that the game theory behind that in a second, because I think I’ve been thinking about that all morning.

3:28I think that’s interesting, but I think that the big news for me is this anthropic stuff and it almost seems like and again, this was it’s funny because I remember one of the main reasons that I got.

3:42I was really interested in crypto was because at the end of my like trading professionally equities, I was just really frustrated that sometimes news would leak before I actually got the headline.

3:57And this anthropic stuff seems to be very similar where they’ve been having meetings like for whatever the last week or the last since the beginning of this week, the entire AI trade has been weighed down heavily, which means people probably came out of those meetings and being like, oh, my God, I know anthropics going to miss.

4:18So I’m going to sell. And then the headline hits two days later. It’s like, oh, yeah. All right.

4:22So that’s why CoreWeave bonds started blowing out on Monday. Right. That’s why the entire AI trade has started blowing out.

4:30So it’s like, again, this is something that as much as there probably should be some sort of federal enforcement action on it won’t happen.

4:40But to me, this was one of the most frustrating things that I found with TradFi was, you know, being a smaller fish compared to these large fund managers that have access to management.

4:50You get the news late. Right. By the time the headline hits. And like you can kind of see it in the fact that, you know, a lot of these stocks, these AI stocks opened at the lows today.

5:00They’re rallying off the lows because if you were shorted on Monday, you know, you’re locking in profits today on this and whatnot. Right.

5:10So to me, like, again, it’s more more of a thing of like one of the things that I didn’t like about TradFi towards the end where I just felt like I was just getting I was getting even with like, you know, having fast news wires and whatnot like that people leaking this information before it actually hits the wires was just really frustrating.

5:29So I feel like that’s kind of what’s been happening here. But the more important thing is like, well, if anthropic growth is slowing, then that like how like I think they have five hundred billion dollars worth of CapEx commitments over the next three to five years, I think.

5:49So the question is, where are they going to get that money from? And I think and that’s kind of what we’ve seen here. Right. And like this is kind of exactly to the point that we were talking to since Micron reported. Right.

6:03And, you know, even more so. And just the fact that stocks aren’t going up on good news. And so that’s something to be cognizant of. I probably should have cut bait like way sooner.

6:16But like I was giving it the chance that I felt like it needed to breathe. And yesterday, like I said, yesterday, even before this anthropic news came out, I’m just like things just like aren’t acting right.

6:28Right. And like with CoreWeave bonds blowing out. I’m like, let me just.

6:32Well, yeah, I think Micron was the first one that we noted, you know, and obviously the nice thing about having the website now is I can go back and search through, you know, when we talked about certain things and see exactly on the chart.

6:47And when Micron’s earnings came out, our initial reaction was like, hey, we’re bullish on, you know, AI and memory still, but this is not reacting the way we would expect it to, which was the first canary in the coal mine, at least in my eyes, looking back.

7:02And now I think we’re just starting to see the additional ripple effects and we’ll continue to see it.

7:08I think going forward here, the the question of where does that money come from then kind of leads to that secondary other topic that we’ve talked about for at this point, you and I have talked about it for a year now, which is.

7:24Does the government step in when if things get really bad?

7:30Yeah. Yeah, so I mean, listen, if you want to bring up the the my screen real quick, the issue I have with that, and I still firmly believe that right and I’ve been tweeting about this for I think over a year or around a year at this point when I first started publicly tweeting about it, is that if you view AI as an order of national defense, which the US government definitely does, then there is no slowdown in this right.

8:01The problem is the S&P 500 is like, I don’t even know what that number is, but that’s like less than that’s definitely less than 5% off all time highs.

8:13The Q’s are not as strong, but still relatively close to all time highs, right?

8:18And the Q’s are not as strong because this is more tech heavy, right?

8:21And the AI trade has really, if you look at NVIDIA, Nebius, like these things have had like massive down moves over the last week, right?

8:31And so it’s, I think it’s very interesting in that we’re, we’re like approaching, I don’t want to call it the end game, but like we’re approaching that moment where the government’s gonna have to like, like backstop things, right?

8:49And the question is like, where does that come from?

8:52But like, I do, I want to highlight something that I’ve been thinking about last night and this morning that throws like a wrinkle in this.

9:02And like, let’s, I’d love for us to like kind of walk through it on the air is that, okay, Elon has been over the last, let’s say this week, he’s been pretty negative on memory, right?

9:16And so basically he was like, China is going to flood the market with memory once they figure this out.

9:25And that’s going to weigh obviously on memory prices, which is going to weigh on, you know, that’s where the weakness of Micron’s coming from, SK Hynix, like, you know, the KOSPI was down again massively overnight.

9:38It’s been down, like limit down, I think like every day this week.

9:41Every day this week. Yeah. And so the game theory that I hadn’t been thinking about is like one, okay, great.

9:49I think as a buyer of memory, right, he wants to weigh down on, he wants to weigh on the price of memory.

9:56So, okay, that kind of makes sense why he’s going to try to talk down.

10:00Memory suppliers. But I think what’s more interesting here is that SpaceX is now public. SpaceX, I don’t know, they announced a week or two ago that they were trying to raise $40 billion in financing for data center buildouts.

10:18I don’t think that that – or it hasn’t been confirmed that that’s been filled out yet. But I think the fact that they have publicly available shares, they already have relationships with a lot of these lenders, means a lot. And so SpaceX is out and they’re public. Anthropic is not.

10:38And so it’s almost like the game theory of whereas maybe Anthropic and OpenAI were going for regulatory capture as their way to win. Elon is kind of going more of, let’s say, the free market route in that sense, in the sense that he’s public, he’s out the gate.

10:58If he wants to slow down Anthropic and OpenAI, then his maybe best move is to keep them from going public. So if he can like scare the AI complex into going lower, even though SpaceX will suffer as a publicly traded company, like it’s like the game theory of, well, we move up the board if Anthropic and OpenAI can’t get financing.

11:24And obviously Elon has been able to raise capital. He’s been able to raise financing. He’s out the gate. We know he’s like in the world building data centers. And I think this is just interesting. I hadn’t thought about it, right?

11:38And so now you see this game theory playing out among the, let’s call them Frontier adjacent labs, because I wouldn’t say that Grok is Frontier.

11:51And I think Meta is probably going to enter this as well, right? Because Meta is a cash cow, right? In the sense that they make so much, right? And Google as well, right? These companies make so much cash.

12:01And now these startups might not be able to go public. Maybe they fall behind because they can’t secure financing. And then we see these incumbents that are public, mainly like a Google, a Facebook, or a Meta, and at this point SpaceX, now start to maybe leapfrog them because they have access to cash that they can finance, right?

12:25Because these guys throw out so much free cash flow from their current activity. So I don’t know. I think this is very interesting. On top of the fact that maybe this lowers the U.S. government put that, yes, they will backstop AI, but now maybe they don’t need to backstop Anthropic because they’re like, all right, well, if Anthropic fails or OpenAI fails, you have Google, you have Google, Meta, SpaceX, you know, NVIDIA, you have a lot of these other players that will fill that void. And now it’s almost like maybe like Anthropic, OpenAI could be in this, let’s call it like, they might not be able to make it through it, right? Because they don’t have enough capital.

13:14So I just think this is very interesting. Like first move, right, is obviously lower, because if their revenue is slowing, then that affects the entire AI CapEx build out. But then I think the next question after like you sell everything and raise cash is like, okay, well then, if Anthropic is going to be, and OpenAI are going to be generating less in revenue, then who’s going to pick that up?

13:41If any, if anybody will pick that up? I firmly believe somebody will pick that up, right? I use GrokBot all day, every day now. So yeah, so that’s kind of like my high level overview of stuff I’ve been thinking about over the last, whatever, 48 hours since we’ve been off the air.

13:58Yeah, I think the main kind of picture I would paint to everybody to like concise that down is, you have you have companies that are trying to go public, you have companies that are public, that are public already that generate cash, Elon could be in all of this 40 chessing and kind of pulling the ladder up behind him and saying, all right, you guys want you want to play ball, we can make it a very hard environment for you.

14:23Throw, you know, throw, you know, a wrench into the machine. And yeah, have fun operating when nobody wants to finance with you. Deals get harder and your projections and finance, like everything just becomes a nightmare, which I think is, it’s a thesis that I haven’t heard before, which is why it’s so interesting.

14:45Um, but like there are, we’re dealing with billions and billions and billions of dollars, like trillion dollar market caps are, uh, you know, end games here.

14:56And I saw like, there is no off limits.

14:58So like yesterday, the market, I saw a headline that the market lost like over a trillion dollars in market cap yesterday, um, which again, like it’s a large number, but, you know, as the valuation of all these companies keep going higher and higher, uh, that number like percentage wise becomes smaller.

15:14Uh, but I will say another thing that’s interesting that I’m watching if you want to bring up my screen again is if you look at rates, rates have come in significantly.

15:26Right. And part, so that’s like another little, um, let’s say thing to notice is because, okay, from what I was reading over the last couple of weeks, the reason why rates were also going higher was because as a bond investor, right.

15:43If I want to put my capital to work and buy bonds, uh, now a lot of these data center build outs from, you know, if Google or Apple or Meta were issuing bonds as a bond investor, you only have like your portfolio is only a certain amount of size.

16:00Right. And so when you’re, when you’re looking to allocate towards like, um, lower risk assets or triple A rated bonds or double A rated bonds, um, you, you have, you have to decide what you’re doing.

16:13You’re going to do. Right. And so it’s like, it’s like, oh, I can buy Google with like a good balance sheet and good cash flows, or I can buy U S government papers.

16:21So now a lot of these companies, these AI build out CapEx companies were competing directly with the U S government in terms of trying to issue paper. Right.

16:32And so now if this thing slows down, then there’s less supply of this debt coming to market, which means there’s going to be more demand, more, more money available to buy U S government debt. And that’s why we’ve seen rates come in over the last couple of days. Right. And significantly today. Right. Like you, I mean, this is a huge down move, uh, in both the 10 year and the 30 year.

16:56And so again, this is like another thing to like, think about because obviously it’s like a, it’s like a double-edged sword, right? Because on one side, pretty much the AI CapEx build out is like the only thing that’s driving the U S economy at this point.

17:13Uh, so I don’t necessarily think that the government wants that to slow down, but then also high interest rates really screws up everything else in the U S economy. Right. So as interest rates come down, then the cost of a mortgage comes down, right.

17:29Which increases demand for housing. Like there’s all these, these, uh, knock on effects of higher and lower interest rates for both ways. So these are definitely things that, you know, Scott Bessent, uh, the, the new fed chair, everybody is definitely looking at.

17:45And that is, um, you know, more nuanced than just, uh, rates up bad rates down good. Uh, because like, these are, it’s like, how do these interlink with everything that’s going on in the AI CapEx build out?

18:02Yeah. Yeah. And I think, you know, the, the one thing kind of like going through some of the show notes here, uh, that I prepped before here is like, this is all AI related.

18:13There is no, like, I don’t think CPI and PPI are going to like affect things too, too crazy. Like it all boils down to everything is just, it’s AI, which is incredibly like, it’s almost insane to think of like how much it’s just affecting everything we do from like a use basis, but also like on the economy basis, it is the same exact way right now.

18:36Um, so I, I don’t know. I, do you think it’s fair to say like, we’ve seen the top on rates at this point? Cause I, I would, I don’t know.

18:49My, my, I don’t know. I’m like, my gut feels like we’re topping there.

18:54I mean, I, I really don’t know. I think it just comes down to inflation. Right. And, and what, what those numbers look like. Right. Cause as, as we’re talking about this, right. Like it doesn’t seem like there’s any escalation that’s happening, uh, in the middle East with Iran.

19:09And, you know, crude is back at 97 ish. And I think Brent is even higher. Brent’s probably close to 110, um, 10, 107. Right. And so, I mean, this, this looks like it’s kind of getting bullish, getting ready to go, to go higher there. Um, so, you know, energy is obviously a huge cost input into everybody’s everyday lives.

19:34So the higher energy goes inflation becomes an issue. Right. And so, um, again, but this could also be reversed with one headline where we actually have like some sort of ceasefire truce that actually sticks. Um, that’s not just, uh, a headline. Cause it seems for the last couple of months, it is, uh, war off.

19:56From Monday to Friday, war on on Saturday and Sunday, war off Monday, right?

20:02It just like kind of like Trump is just like waging war on the weekends and tacoing every Sunday afternoon so that the market doesn’t get smoked and energy doesn’t climb higher.

20:15So I don’t know, like I don’t think you can say that we’ve seen the top in rates because if inflation stays persistently high, then we have to raise rates, right?

20:26And so I just – I think that’s something to keep an eye out here.

20:32I do – even with the – go ahead, go ahead.

20:36I mean I’ll also say like this is – what’s interesting here is that gold has also caught a bid, right, which I think is very interesting and one thing I’ll note.

20:48And again, I think when you look at macro data, it makes sense to – you have to think of everything.

20:55You can’t look at anything in a vacuum, right?

20:57And so that’s kind of why I’m like highlighting all these different things in these different markets and how they’re reacting because not everything is going to react exactly the same, right?

21:07Because you could like – you could spin any data point as like super positive or super negative, right, depending on the story you’re trying to tell.

21:14But where I think a lot of the alpha comes from is like just looking at like – and this is why I bring up, okay, great, rates have come in, but so like so has possible growth expectations if the AI capex – like economic growth is going to come down if the AI capex build out is bad, right?

21:36Or if it slows down.

21:39It seems like, you know, like I said, Fed fund futures hiked today, yesterday and today based off of CPI data and PPI data, which means that we’re going to get probably one more hike probably this month and most likely before the end of the year.

21:57You would think that gold gets smashed, right, because rates are hiking up, but gold seems to have caught a bit here, right, which I think is interesting.

22:06It’s something to know. And you even look at Bitcoin, right?

22:09Bitcoin sold off. It made a new low, like classic – like this could be considered a bear trap.

22:14And now it caught a bit, right?

22:17And so like if we look at like the four-hour chart, like it reversed, right?

22:21Same thing with gold, which is kind of telling me, again, something to look out of like, all right, maybe easing is coming sooner than expected, right?

22:34Maybe like the endgame that we were talking about at the top of the show is like, all right, well, is there an emergency rate cut, right?

22:42Or, you know, I don’t think we need to go to an emergency rate cut.

22:45I think that would be like hyper bearish if we did something like that.

22:49That would remind me of like 2007 when Countrywide imploded and we did an emergency rate cut in between meetings.

22:59And that was like the beginning of the financial crisis, right?

23:02And so – but yeah, these are all things to keep in mind, right?

23:07And so again, like I said, I think the interesting thing here, even though it looks like we’re going to be raising rates, gold has like stopped going down.

23:19Now like obviously gold was weak for the last like two weeks, right?

23:24And that was even something I’ve been bringing up for the last couple weeks is that even like with Bitcoin, the Bitcoin strength, and people were talking about like the divergences.

23:33I’m like, well, if gold led this up move and gold kind of led this down move, right?

23:39Now to Bitcoin’s credit, it’s been holding up way better than gold has, right, which is positive, right?

23:47And so I think in like those scenarios where gold starts to get higher or hard assets start to go higher, then like Bitcoin ETH, SOL, pick your favorite crypto hard money assets probably start to move a little faster off the bottom.

24:06So again, these are all things that I’m looking at and the things that I find interesting that are like, hey, like let’s take a look at this and then let’s try to understand why, right?

24:16And you’re not always going to have those answers because it’s like kind of like the fog of war.

24:20You don’t really know how all these assets are interacting with each other.

24:24It could be something as simple as money flows between assets, foreign governments, lowering exposure to certain markets and whatnot.

24:35But like you have to look at all of this as holistically as you possibly can.

24:39Yeah, no, I think in addition to, you know, the macro environment for the bull case on these risk assets, I would say crypto specifically, there’s some key points after doing a lot of research over the last 48 hours.

24:55I know we had Witt just leave the White House, who was a crypto advisor, a crypto chair within the White House.

25:06While that was kind of like a bear signal of like, okay, we have some some change up happening.

25:10And obviously, the we haven’t been able to get any of the anything through Congress or the Senate.

25:18And we’ve been relying mainly on the CFTC, the SEC, and any of the other agencies, which I think is bullish because we’re seeing action actually happen here.

25:30But we’re also seeing the tokenization of assets actually go pretty much parabolic at this point.

25:36We’re seeing more people have stable coin strategy and discussion.

25:41And I do think that in the world of agentic trading, I would say with everything that we just talked about, once that starts to play out, I believe we are also going to see exponential activity start to happen on chain.

25:55And while that might not be the assets in your bag right now, like, you know, the ones we have coming across the bottom of the screen, they may very well be the assets that you’re trading on, you know, Charles Schwab, JP Morgan today, just coming to a chain near you.

26:14This is a bull case for me on Robinhood.

26:17I’ve talked about, you know, who wins this tokenization race.

26:20I think Robinhood, once again, could not be in a better position.

26:26Coinbase, similar position, has their own chain.

26:29But I do think that they’re struggling on the consumer trading base.

26:33I think a lot of consumers that are using Coinbase right now are using it to buy crypto once or twice or three times a year.

26:41And then they just they log off.

26:44They’re not going there to actively participate in the market the same way you see on Robinhood.

26:48Robinhood, as you start to see all these assets come on chain, I think whoever has that activity, as we’ve seen on the trading terminal trade of who’s going to win, whichever platforms have the most activity, even if they didn’t have the most users, you saw that growth grow over time as word of mouth, as P&L sharing would kind of flood the timelines, flood the subreddits.

27:11It’s it’s the bull case. I do see Robinhood here being strategically positioned again, crypto across the board.

27:20I’m bullish on the long term, whether or not we see some local lows here.

27:24So, I mean, I think kind of like to what I was talking about, all right, like where do you look at crypto in relation to like the rest of the markets here?

27:35And like I was even saying, you know, last week, right, like I could see us going back to this like mid 70 level.

27:41And I just think, again, like people are like hyper depressed on like this pullback, like like Bitcoin still looks so strong here, in my opinion, and it could pull back to 75K and still look incredibly strong.

27:57And like it could even pull back to like 68, 69, you know, like we could go back to like the low 60s.

28:04And like, I still think it would look pretty decent.

28:09You know what I mean? Like, yeah, yeah, there’s there’s a significant drop that could happen percent wise here that we’re still it doesn’t invalidate the trade.

28:17Yeah. And so like, I that’s why, like, you know, I think there was a clip we put out yesterday or this morning about how like, I think the bottoms are the bottom is in right.

28:29Right. But like, that doesn’t mean we can’t like retrace and like, you know, have a decent pullback.

28:36Right. Before we go higher, like that’s that’s not totally out of the question.

28:41And so I think as a trader or as a person that’s allocating assets, you want to be like thinking about those things, because even though all the things that you just said could be true in terms of tokenization and stuff coming on chain.

28:55But at the end of the day, like everything is driven by liquidity flows and what is Bitcoin doing in these scenarios?

29:04Right. And where is it going? Because, you know, sentiment like we were talking about on Tuesday.

29:09Right. If Bitcoin is higher than on chain activity is higher because people feel that wealth effect and they’re like, OK, I can gamble on these low market cap tokens.

29:19But because my Bitcoin bag is up and when Bitcoin goes down, then people feel poorer.

29:25They lock in. They don’t necessarily want to gamble or be taking moonshots here and there.

29:31And so that activity slows down. And so we know this. Right.

29:34And so I think to me, it’s like if you want to be like I would say like be long Bitcoin on like little to no leverage and just understand that we could pull back significantly and still be bullish.

29:46Right. We could pull back to 65K and it’s still, you know, like the lows are whatever, 57, 58.

29:54Like we have a ways to go.

29:56To break those lows. And we could like come back and backfill things significantly, right? Like even if I’m looking at this thing as like, how do I draw again? Is this the drawing one? Maybe. Like, boom. And then, you know, reverse head and shoulders, right? Like.

30:16The sign-up’s there.

30:18This thing could go significantly lower before going higher, right? Like the key is you don’t want to see it break a new low, but it could like go back and test that low pretty hard. You know, I would like to not see that. I hope this thing stays here, right?

30:34That next support level for Bitcoin, the next support level for Bitcoin is around that 75k number, like you said. And then after that, that second support level is around what? Like 64,000, maybe? 65,000?

30:51Yeah, probably like 62,000, 63.

30:54Okay. 62, 63. Okay.

30:57You know, so we could go significantly lower and still be like bullish long-term, you know? So I think those are things to, man, this is going to be great to look at this, my chart drawings in a couple of weeks to see, to see how that does. But yeah, I mean, I think that these are all things you need to be cognizant of.

31:15Um, and again, like there is great innovation happening on chain, but you know, you also need to be wary of the price action. The macro is especially right now driving everything. Everything is correlated to the AI trade. Uh, but like I said, it’s like from a macro perspective, I think the fact that gold, what the gold is kind of telling us something here, right?

31:41It pulled back. It’s now like finding a base. Bitcoin is higher and stronger. And these are just things that like I’m looking at personally.

31:51Yeah. No, I think this is, uh, it’s an interesting setup. I think, uh, you know, it’s a pull into like what else everything’s related to AI.

32:01The one thing when we’re looking at assets and trying to understand where there’s opportunity in the market is understanding where has AI not truly crept into yet. Um, the big topic of this week for the loser on this topic has been Adobe. Adobe has absolutely gotten slaughtered. Uh, their stock price is down incredibly significantly as a lot, again, this reverse engineering of software, uh, has become prevalent.

32:28Um, we are likely going to see this also happen on the flip side, who is leaning into AI and adopting it. Um, I do believe the, the topic that we discussed back in September, September 22nd, I believe is the first time on show we brought this up, but, uh, Amazon has taken the position of not allowing Grok, not allowing, uh, Claude or any of these agents to come to their site.

32:56Um, I believe this is a position that they’ve taken likely to push back on. And it always is this group of people, the drop shippers, the people that are coming in and trying to probably, uh, figure out, uh, how to data scrape Amazon and then, you know, flood Amazon and other sites with, uh, you know, Temu products. Um, I do still think that whoever leans into it and just says, you know, F it, we’re going to, we’re going to let it happen. It’s the future. We’ve got to solve it and jump into it. Um, Um, I think Walmart has a stance here, but the people that have done the best job with this have been at Microsoft this week. Uh, we saw the CEO of Xbox basically say, uh, and I don’t know if you saw the, uh, the, the trending video game, uh, that was the first person shooter. Uh, I think it was like a, it was like a hood first person shooter.

33:47Um, to me, wait, hold on, before we go into that, let’s talk about this. Like you just glossed over.

33:53Well, no, I was gonna wrap it back in, but jump into it.

33:56Um, I, first off, I, I think I closed my Walmart trade, like at the lows. I think I closed it here. Um, so, you know, I think part of that is probably the news that we were just talking about where my idea on it was like, if Amazon, uh, is going to block your agents, this is kind of Walmart’s game to lose here, right?

34:15Walmart’s pretty much the only other retailer that I think can compete in terms of speed and, um, and price with Amazon. I don’t think anybody else can the same way that Walmart can. So I was like, oh, this is like Walmart’s game to lose. You know, obviously Amazon is very tech first tech forward. They’re a tech company. And Walmart is more of a, um, brick and mortar retailer that does have like a tech component. But like when I think Walmart, I don’t think like, oh, like tech awesome. Right.

34:44And, and I think that like, when I go to buy a lot of the stuff that I buy on Amazon, which is like toothpaste, toilet paper, um, you know, like some chocolate, like vitamins or whatever, whether I buy it from Amazon or Walmart, like I really don’t care as what I want it there for the cheapest price possible, as fast as possible.

35:06So I was like, kind of like, that was like my thesis behind putting that trade on now, like it wasn’t acting as strongly as I wanted it to. And I think I sold, I literally like sold the bottom, but like it has, it seems like it’s been playing out now.

35:20I think part of it is people rotating out of the AI CapEx trade into consumer staples. Um, but also part of it is probably like what we were just talking about here is like when I’m buying something.

35:34And this was like a tweet that, um, you know, I saw this this morning, uh, I retweeted it and, and, you know, you astutely said that we were talking about this a couple of weeks ago where, you know, I don’t think, you know, people go, would you switch stores for your bot?

35:49And I absolutely would, because like, again, I don’t care if I’m buying a designer t-shirt, then yeah, like I care where I’m getting it from. I care like who makes it or whatever. But if I’m buying toothpaste and I’m buying like crest or Colgate and they both functionally do the same thing. And like one is whatever, a dollar, 50 cents cheaper, whatever it is, it doesn’t matter to me where I’m buying it from. Right.

36:17I mean, this is exactly the point. I think Jason Calacanis tweeted that he had told, uh, a founder that he needs to hire a, a very good salesy social co-founder, uh, so that, you know, they can do well on sales.

36:31And that founder’s reply back to him was, well, I’m not going to be selling to people. I’m going to be selling to agents. And my, like, I don’t need a forward facing person in the world of AI and the world of agentic, you know, consumer consumption.

36:44It doesn’t matter what the UI looks like. It just, it really matters. Can I buy what I, what I need and will it arrive quickly? Um, and that’s what sets Amazon, uh, and Walmart up for potentially a, a flipping, uh, in the, you know, consumer retail space or not even retail space in the, uh, logistics environment, which I think becomes the, the bigger topic.

37:08Right. Well, I, but listen, like, and I think I saw something, it’s like, okay, why is Amazon doing this? One is the first thought is like, oh, maybe they’re working on their own agentic solution. Fine. Uh, but another thing is that from my understanding is that they sell, or there’s money to be made on the margins of, you know, when results pop up, when I search for something on Amazon, because there are a bunch of different sellers, like maybe I’m not getting the best deal when I’m like, Hey, like deodorant, right? Like, it’s like, uh, when, when I asked my Grok bot, like find me the best deodorant for me based on like what you know about me, it’ll like come up. Like I, and I’ve been doing this with a couple of different things where I’m like, uh, one of the things that I I’ve wanted is, uh, I need new like insoles for, uh, I’ve been playing a ton of paddle.

37:59So like I need new insoles for my, my sneakers, because if not, like it, it, like I, I have like too much like, um, pain in, in my heels and whatnot. And so I was like, Hey, find me like the top three on Amazon, uh, for paddle. And like, it came back like really quick. And then like, I just went through them. I’m like, all right, which one do I like the best? And like, I like fell for it. Right. Or like fell for like whatever the sales tactics are and buying whichever one that might not have been the best price.

38:27But if like one of those things that I’m very price sensitive, right. When I go to amazon.com and I search for it, I’m not always necessarily buying like the first results that you’re shown aren’t always the best value. Whereas like, I can tell my Grok bot to get the best value or any, any agent.

38:43Yeah. I did this last night. I needed spark plugs and I literally just went in and said, all right, I need, I need spark plugs order. And you know, it, it doesn’t matter as long as they’re not some cheap Chinese.

38:56Yeah. But like, I mean, even if they are, even if they are, if they can do, if they conduct electricity, like, isn’t that like all you need?

39:07Fair, fair, fair. I mean, look, it’s, it’s so funny to me though. Like, I feel like people still haven’t picked up on this. Like that is the, that is the future we’re heading towards.

39:15Um, I mean, even this morning and like, of like video editors, I saw a post from somebody about like, Hey, this entire video is done by AI. Like, here’s a result and didn’t touch it. And I was like, my jaw dropped. And I was like, Oh my God. Like, uh, if you, if you think about it, the we’re, we’re reinventing the, not only the internet, but we’re reinventing.

39:41I think we’re reinventing the computer right now where like, uh, the model is, is now the computer, right? Like everything runs on the model and everything else becomes like this app and service layer.

39:56And all the big, all the big labs are basically absorbing every other company that, that has no real, right now, no physical moat or like logistical or like human resource moat.

40:12Well, it’s funny because, it’s funny because we were talking about this right before we went on the air along, along the lines of, you know, how agents are taking over.

40:23Uh, I have, uh, I’ve been working on like my taxes with my accountant and I just had the agent, like I, I basically created an account, an accountant agent for myself where I’m like now tracking all my expenses, uh, on a, like a weekly basis so that I don’t like forget what things are.

40:39And it just asked me, he’s like, Hey, what should this be categorized as? Right. And it’s just like, Oh, okay. Like, I remember that, that from last week, but now like, I’m like having it double check the work that my accountants did.

40:50And it found like three or four mistakes. And then it just like sent out an email of being like, Hey, like this is wrong. Cause I’m like, Hey, I want to lower my tax liability, obviously all legally right within the letter of the law.

41:02But like, you know, check to make sure that there are no mistakes made. Right. And it like literally went over everything. And I’m like, Oh, I’m like, this is pretty incredible. Now, like, I think for something as, as important as taxes, I do think like, again, to like, will I ever have an agent just file my taxes?

41:21Probably not like anytime soon, because I do probably want an expert that will give me their expert opinion and be willing to one sign off on it. And two, if there’s ever any issues, they, they will be able to like their, it’ll be like their job to kind of defend like, but here’s my pushback on this.

41:39I, I think everything within like the, the lawyer layer and the CPA layer and turning layer.

41:49Um, there’s a reason the labs are spending millions and millions and millions and millions of dollars to buy up all the data from the CPA firms and these, these tax firms and the law firms like that.

42:02Those three sectors are insane right now from the data broker side. And we’ve seen that in the headlines of how these, you know, kids are going around and basically being data brokers, making millions of dollars.

42:12Um, I, what I think will end up happening here is you will see a lot of the, you will, you will go to a agent and say, Hey, here are all my, here’s all my files. Here’s all my stuff. Go do it.

42:25But when the model realizes, Hey, we actually have an uncertainty here. These are the three things that we need to go have reviewed. We’ll present it all to an attorney. And it’s like, do you want to spend the three grand to have this done or the thousand dollars to have this like reviewed and looked at those key things are then looked at and then matured.

42:44But, and so it’s this weird thing of like, you, but that’s exactly what I was saying. Right. Like, it’s like, you would go to, you would go to an attorney, have them do it all and then review with AI.

42:56No, no. What I’m saying is that I’m like, like right now, like I’m having my accountant do stuff and I’m having my, my AI review it. Right. But like, what’s going to end up happening is I’m going to go, like, I have like a complicated tax structure. Right.

43:10But if I had like a very simple one, right. Like people that generally would go to H&R Block can now just be like, all right, here’s my W2 here are my deductions make my return. Okay. This, I don’t, I’m not going to spend the thousand dollars or $1,500. It’s not worth it for me. Right. Like in terms of like tax savings.

43:31But then there are those complicated returns where, all right, cool. I’ll do 98% of it on my own. And now that last 2%, I want you to sign off as an attorney. Cause I don’t think the model, the LLM labs are going to be doing this anytime soon. Maybe I’m wrong.

43:50Maybe they’re like, okay, well, this is all the value where it’s like, all right, if you get audited, right. Anthropic tax LLC is going to defend you against the U S government. Then like at that point, then like a lot of, a lot of accountants and a lot of attorneys are probably out of business.

44:06I don’t think that they’re going to do that anytime soon, but what I think is probably going to happen is exactly what I just said, where now on a go forward basis next year, I’m probably going to be like, all right, well, I don’t think I should be paying.

44:19Let’s say I get charged $5,000 a year to do my taxes. Like, I don’t think I should pay $5,000 a year for you to do this because I’m, I’m getting rid of like a lot of your busy work.

44:30And now it’s like, I just want you to review these four to five things and sign off on them in the case that I do get audited or there is an issue.

44:40You reviewed them and you will defend me in court. Right. Cause I think that’s what like a lot of, that’s what you pay a lot of these professionals for, right.

44:48Is for their expert opinion. Cause like, it would obviously be cheaper to do all of this on your own.

44:53And, um, but regardless, right. Regardless of the cost, but you really are like, all right, well, if I am in a situation where I have to defend myself, I want an expert to defend myself.

45:05And that person needs to have signed off on that and can’t be like, oh yeah, well looking over this. Yeah. Like, of course, like you shouldn’t have done that. Of course you shouldn’t have taken this deduction, blah, blah, blah. Right.

45:15And so, you know, it makes, it makes their job much more difficult, uh, to defend you as opposed to them signing off on it. So I do think we’re probably going towards that world. Um, and then probably by like next year. Right.

45:28And so like, again, I think these agents have gotten so good in the last two, three months that now I’m like giving it more and more stuff to do on a more consistent basis that requires less work from me where it’s like, even I’m at the point right now where if it asked me to sign into a website, like I’m annoyed, you know what I mean?

45:52And I’m like, bro, like I gate, like you have access to my 1Password. I I’ve given you the password, figure it out. And then like, sometimes it pushes back and I’m like, well, if I needed, if I had to sign in, then like, why do I need you? Because you’re not making my life easier. And then like, it figures it out. Right. So yeah, I think we’re headed towards that. We’re like there. We’re at the beginning of, I think by this time next year, it’ll be way more pervasive.

46:16It’s going to get so weird. And again, we say this every show, but it’s getting weird. I do want to give a quick shout out and thank you to some of our viewers here that have been chatting with us. PowerPay, Kenobi, QuadWitch, as always love having you in chat. Good to see you.

46:37Um, if you are tuned in and watching, drop us a high, say hello. Um, again, love the support you haven’t already. Make sure you’re following us on X. Uh, you can check out the website as well for all the stuff we talked about this show and every other show at fullportshow.com. Um, gee, as we wrap up here in the last few seconds, uh, any, any closing thoughts, anything on your radar as we go into the weekend? Um, for yourself here. Um, not particularly, I think just like, again, um, I think we did like some pretty good coverage of macro, uh, today and just like things just to keep an eye on. Right. And again, everything is fluid. So, you know, as things change, as new information comes out, um, I think you should always be analyzing these, these different types of things. But, you know, I think, uh, the markets, there’s volatility, volatility is picking up. That means there’s going to be a lot of opportunity to make money. So there’s no need to be a hero in anything and just be patient and wait for your setups. And, you know, um, don’t, don’t never kill yourself as they say. Right.

47:51Very true. That is a, that is a very true take. Um, the one, the one thing I’ll leave everybody with here is I do think that there’s probably going to be, uh, outsized pain into the alt space. Uh, if you’re playing in the trenches, um, we obviously have some Pump.fun, uh, drama happening right now. I think the entire launch pad space has gotten incredibly crowded. Um, and we’re ultimately entering a point in space where the most creative and interesting companies are going to have, uh, the most upside point in case paper, uh, from paper trade right now paper, I believe is trading up, uh, over the last few days. And people that have played that game correctly, uh, seem to be quite excited and walking away with a decent, uh, bundle of cash in their pocket. Um, but I think the bull case right now, is can you either make revenue, can you have insane moat from distribution, or can you have be so interesting, so creative that everybody has to pay attention to you? Uh, I think, I think paper falls into a few of those categories right now. And, you know, you’ll have to look through the lens of that as you’re analyzing your bag going forward. Um, but we’ll have to see how that plays out over the next few days. And we’ll check back in on, on Tuesday. Um, I appreciate everybody tuning in.

49:17We’ll catch you in a few days. Enjoy your weekends, everybody. Uh, and we’ll see you next show on Full Port. Cheers guys.