AI Trade Selloff, Blur Shuts Down, and Is Crypto Next?

0:00What is up, everybody? Good morning and welcome back to Full Port. Joined with my partner in crime, gmoney. We’ve got a lot to talk about. Obviously, a lot of leverage, liquidations. We’ve got drama over in China, drama over in South Korea with the KOSPI into early hours this morning.

0:19And obviously, everybody’s talking about the AI trade, the crypto trade. We’re going to cover all of that today and more. Hope you’re having a good start to the week and you had a great weekend. G, how are you doing today?

0:32I’m doing good, all things considered, considering the market’s getting, well, the AI trade has been getting smashed for the last couple of days, pretty much since we came off the air on Thursday.

0:45It’s basically been straight for sale. So I definitely want to kind of go over that, talk about that, obviously, to start off the top of the show.

0:52And I think, I feel like there’s a lot of stuff for us to talk about this today. So I think we should probably just get right into it.

0:59So much to go over. Let’s jump into the first topic. We had a lot of convo before the show. I’m not sure where you want to actually start here.

1:08Yeah. So basically, right, like, I think there was a lot of news that came out over the last couple, maybe like, let’s say 48 hours.

1:15I think one was CXMT news, right, which is, you know, let’s call it the number four competitor for the memory trade.

1:25And I think what there, there was conversations around them, you know, increasing supply, which we always see at the top of memory cycles.

1:34And this is stuff that we’ve been hearing over and over again for the last couple of months, you know, that, you know, like that this is what tops look like.

1:43Like, I think what concerned people a lot was maybe Elon’s response to one of those tweets, basically saying that once China figures it out, they’re basically going to own the industry and do to memory what they did to, I believe it was lithium and solar, right?

2:03And those industries where they just send the cost of everything down close to zero and just like get rid of all competitors.

2:10So I think that was one. Number two, which I saw overnight, because let’s go over, like, I’ll just go over, like, all the three headlines, and then we’ll see more about how this is, like, how this has been a confluence in the trade.

2:24The second headline that I saw overnight was NVIDIA cutting Vera Rubin forecast for, I believe, for the year or for Q3, almost in half, I think, or by 5,000 units, which is significant.

2:38And then I’d say number three was the Kospi sell-off overnight on the memory stuff.

2:46And then the CEO of Broadcom, Hawk Tan, was quoted by Bloomberg saying the quote, I guess, so basically the quote came out on Bloomberg basically implying that all AI investors are gamblers.

3:03But the actual quote that was attributed to him was him saying, like, by basing a trade off one data point is the equivalent of gambling.

3:12And so I know there’s been a couple people that have been clearing that quote up, but I think in this skittish market, people shoot first and then ask questions later.

3:26So I do think that – and also I believe it was SK Hynix that came out with earnings late last week or maybe it was yesterday.

3:36I don’t really know. Like, all the dates are combobulating here.

3:42Basically, hit numbers, numbers were gray, and sells off, the same thing that we saw with Micron.

3:47So I think that a lot of these things – and this goes back to, like, what I said with Micron’s numbers a couple weeks ago where the number was great and the market, it didn’t go up, right?

4:01You know, it was hanging out there, went up a little bit, and now it’s significantly lower than where it was.

4:06So these are all, like, this last night and this morning I was kind of like, all right, I’m probably going to cut down on my – on the exposure on my trade at this point, especially, you know, maybe like cut – I wouldn’t say I’m going to get out of everything personally, but probably cut the exposure down in half.

4:23I’m waiting to see how the market shakes out probably into the rest of the day before doing that.

4:29But I was looking at the open this morning, pretty much a lot of the AI basket opened on lows and has been rallying weekly, but not very, very strongly.

4:41And I think the most concerning one is Micron in terms of, like, what that chart looks like.

4:46So, again, you know, I’m still hyper-bullish on the AI trade long-term, but I think from maybe, like, a positioning perspective, obviously rates are high.

4:58That’s, like, I think one of the things that also at some point maybe, you know, people are like, all right, well, you know, I mean, looking at the chart right now, rates have come in a decent amount over the last couple days.

5:10But, you know, I think people, investors just kind of maybe want to lock in stuff.

5:15And I think one of the things that we always talk about on the show and highlight is you don’t have to be in every trade all the time, right?

5:23And I was actually, like, kind of going over my trades.

5:25I’m like, I probably should trade it around stuff a little more, but I was going for the next big up leg.

5:32But it’s fine, right? It’s just kind of like I think when you’re wrong, and I think this is one of the things that I myself, as well as others, you need to be always cognizant of is when you’re wrong, just cut your loss.

5:45Like, the thesis has changed, and you can’t sit there and, quote, unquote, manage P&L and be like, oh, I’ll get out when I get back to break even.

5:52It’s like when you’re wrong, get out, and then reevaluate the situation.

5:56And I think that’s kind of where we’re at right now.

5:59Yeah. When I was going through the previous calls, which we now have a great repository or directory of all the things that we talk about on the show, we can get to that in a minute.

6:10But I was kind of taken back by your analysis, which was the numbers are great, everything looks good, but we’re not seeing the reaction we need.

6:19Plus, there were some also reactions to some fright.

6:23I think it wasn’t even memory related, but there was also some, like, China model drama around that time that had sent the AI trade a little bit lower.

6:32And it was, like, all these little data points of, like, all right, like, it’s fragile.

6:36And we have to probably recognize that, okay, just because we want things to go up and we’re bullish on this long term does not mean that we should ignore, you know, the market not reacting in a strong way.

6:50Obviously, today, if you look across the bottom of the screen, we’re starting to see that, you know, very, very clear pullback across the board.

7:00Some of these I do have some theses for, but, yeah, a very, very fragile trade right now.

7:11Yeah, I mean, like, listen, again, I think, like I said, me personally, I’m going to be watching price action into the close today, deciding if maybe I want to.

7:21And also, like, news headlines, right, because, like, obviously all this can change with a headline, whatever, and then deciding, right?

7:29But, like, literally, I remember yesterday I was, like, looking at the price action a little bit.

7:33I was, like, ah, I should sell some. But also since the bond market was closed, usually on Columbus Day, volumes are really low.

7:40So I was just, like, ah, I’ll wait till tomorrow.

7:43And basically I probably – I should have cut my exposure yesterday.

7:46I would have saved myself a little bit.

7:49But, I mean, it is what it is, right?

7:51And, like, to me, it’s, like, all right, well, my thesis has been invalidated a little bit.

7:56But it’s not acting the way I think it should on the news that’s coming out.

8:01So maybe I should take a step back and reevaluate, right?

8:07And then find those times, right?

8:08Because it’s, like, it’s – you could be – and I think we’re seeing this in crypto a little bit, too.

8:15And I don’t know if we want to jump into crypto just yet.

8:17But, like, I definitely – because I definitely think this – the AI trade, it seems like it’s spilling over into the crypto trade, right?

8:24Where it’s, like, as sentiment is in AI that determines the risk on trade for all other markets.

8:31And crypto was weak over the weekend.

8:35And, like, I don’t know.

8:36I just felt like people were, like, oh, my God, we’re going to new lows.

8:41Like, I would have thought that, like, Bitcoin over the weekend based off the timeline was at, like, 70K, you know?

8:49And that was, like, literally, like, into, like, I don’t know, this down move here, like, down to, like, 82 where people are, like, oh, my God, we’re going to zero.

8:57Now, ETH is much weaker.

8:59And, listen, there’s – I think a lot of this, the weakness in crypto is, one, from the risk on, risk off trade.

9:06But then, two – But also – yeah, go ahead. Quantum fears. And then the ledger stuff that’s, like, I’m freaked out over it, right?

9:14Like, yeah.

9:16I mean, I’m, like – I was, like, I took out – I took out my – I have a ledger flex.

9:22And I took it out and I weighed it this morning.

9:24And then, like, I was reading afterwards, like, that – like, you have to open it, right?

9:27Like, even weighing it doesn’t even know – doesn’t even give you peace of mind.

9:33So, I don’t know. Like, I think it’s, like, a combination of the two because ETH has definitely been the weaker of the two.

9:39And I think that’s partly because of the quantum stuff.

9:42And, like, I feel like we’ve seen definitely a pickup in hacking across the board in crypto.

9:48Hacking, scams, it’s – the uptick over the last 30 days has been absolutely noticeable.

9:56I’ve unfortunately been on – I’ve been on – I’ve been on – I guess on the end side of part of that, which, you know, I notice it come in waves when people are really starting to scam or I see people impersonating me, et cetera.

10:10I’m like, okay, market’s clearly back. Numbers are high enough. There’s enough attention because, you know, obviously scammers are coming in looking for dumb money or dumb users.

10:19Um, yeah, I, I do want to like add to your point on, on like crypto being affected by AI. There are two narratives that also came out over the last 48 hours, one of them being, uh, buoyancy, a CEO of Product Hunt talking about, uh, what successful companies look like going forward.

10:39Um, and, you know, this idea of moat has kind of gone away. We’re seeing people reproduce Photoshop and the entire Adobe suite, um, and GitHub repos that are literally named like re-engineer where you, you just drop in a .exe file and you can reproduce an entire program in, you know, a couple of days for a hundred and a hundred dollars.

11:04Have you used the, um, those Adobe, those, uh, Adobe githubs yet?

11:09I have not, but like, I, I can verify from my own reverse engineering. I have gone, taken a piece of software that I was like, I don’t want to keep paying for this and have prompted, uh, it to be re-engineered.

11:24And like, it might not be one-to-one, but it’s like 85% there and it has every, like all the core stuff I need and I own it and can customize it.

11:32And I’m like, all right, well, yeah, I just saved $75 a month there.

11:36Um, yeah, no, I like, I think, I mean, that’s like, I think the product, the AI again to, I guess, come back to AI for a couple of minutes from like, I think not from the trading perspective, but from the usefulness perspective is dude, like the products are just so much better.

11:52And I think we’re finally starting to get into that productivity wave where even for us, for the show, right.

11:57And I, we’re about to do shameless plugs here.

12:00One is on, on all, on all our socials, right.

12:04I basically started running a rock bot last week where, and like, you know, we’re testing stuff, right.

12:10We have a couple of different formats that we’re testing across all of our socials for shorts, um, you know, to try to get people onto like the podcast in long form, uh, and get discovery that way.

12:21But then also over the weekend, you were working on the website, right.

12:25And here, I’ll, I’ll bring up the website real quick.

12:28Um, so you can share it, but like, this was all done with AI, you know what I mean?

12:35This is, this is, this took maybe three hours of work and was just kind of like, I was drinking a coffee and was like, Hey, I have an idea here.

12:46Um, obviously loot runs a company called index, which is, is blockchain data.

12:51And we’ve got a lot of stuff that we can build off of that.

12:54I was like, Hey, let’s just throw it all into a site.

12:57Um, and like the weird thing is there’s, it’s not just like, Hey, here are our shows.

13:04But if you click in like every single thing we’ve ever said, every call we’ve ever said, every, uh, asset we’ve ever talked about is, is long tracked and dynamic now.

13:16This is what I thought was really, really, really interesting that you mentioned, right?

13:21So here’s like some of the stuff I’ve been doing, right.

13:24And you can see the different formats and, you know, we’re testing it.

13:27And I have like a weekly report where it’s coming out and telling me all that stuff.

13:31But, um, this was very interesting, right.

13:34Where to your point is it goes through the transcripts, um, has, you know, the price when we talk about it on the show gives the return since they’re like what the quote actually is.

13:45Right. And, and stuff like that. I think this is very cool. Uh, and I do think we’re probably going to see more and more stuff like this, uh, from not just us, but just people in general being able to now utilize these agents, um, in a way that increases productivity.

14:01Cause I think up until now, um, things have been cool and they’ve been like, it’s been, um, I, you know, I was, I was kind of talking about it.

14:10I think it was over the weekend with somebody where it’s like up until maybe about a month ago, I just kept getting nerd sniped.

14:16Right. I was just like, Oh, this like new thing.

14:19It’s fucking awesome. I’m going to go try it out. And I spent a bunch of hours setting it up and then it doesn’t really like improve my productivity or makes me more money or whatever.

14:28Cause I think like, I think you have to be viewing AI from two lenses is like, one, does it make me more productive?

14:34Which increases like the, the amount of output that I can put into something, which increases probably the amount of money that I can make or two, does it like just make me money?

14:44Right. And so I think now we’re starting to get into that phase again, like to your point is like this website, uh, even like these clips, um, I’ve been like super impressed with this.

14:55Cause like, so like, just so the users understand basically what we’re doing side by side, um, these, these clips that have, the graphics in them, um, I basically have been utilizing Claude, it’s called motion, but I don’t have access to it yet.

15:11And like, I asked the rock bot to use my, my Claude code in order to make this.

15:17And it’s like, you don’t have access to it, but I know what it is.

15:19So I’m going to do it. So it’s been doing that. So based off of what we’re talking about, it creates a like live action, like, like live animation, like screen, uh, presentation.

15:31And then these are opus clips on the other ones, right.

15:34Where, um, we have an opus clips account and we upload our stream on there.

15:39And that’s like a trade model that they, it helps, helps short clips go viral.

15:45Right. Or like, how is it in the format for virality?

15:48So basically like we’re, we’re comparing them side by side.

15:51I just think you’re going to see more and more of this, um, of people that are taking that initiative and you’re going to see them winning.

15:56Right. And so it’s going to be, I’m down to, I definitely am down to talk about this a lot on a go forward basis to see, to talk about how we’re applying it to ourselves, but then, you know, people will see how to apply it for themselves as well.

16:09Well, I think, I think it’s certainly going to continue to advance here.

16:13Um, to tie it back to the beginning of the show, if you go up to the top and search micron real quick, or MU, uh, just an example of this where, um, I think there, if you just click on that.

16:26Well, the numbers are really good, but the stock isn’t reacting exactly as I would expect it to.

16:32I’m still bullish. Like that is, that is a great tagline of like, Hey, we recognize something’s wrong.

16:38And then it played against us, which look, there are certainly times where we’ll be wrong.

16:41But I think when you can start to take all these data points and apply them, um, and then actually act off of them, this is where this show becomes like less of like, Oh, I’m just watching for entertainment.

16:53And then you can actually trade off of it.

16:55If you had actually taken everything we’ve talked about G since we started the show, um, dependent on your timeline, you’d be up two to three X right now.

17:05If, uh, you had listened to all of our, our calls that had a directional trade available for them.

17:11This is, this is very, very cool.

17:13Um, you know, I, we, we, I know we spoke about it over the weekend and I gave you some feedback on stuff, but like, this is, this is also very cool to be able to see this, um, in real time.

17:23So that’s kudos to you for building it out.

17:27Shout out to the, shout out to the index team, man.

17:29They, uh, the only reason any of this is possible is that we, we own all of the blockchain data and don’t have to, uh, to pay for any of that or technically don’t have to pay for any of it.

17:41So, um, yeah, shameless plug for them as well.

17:45Right. Yeah, no, again, but like, I think to that point, right.

17:48And I know we talk about it a lot of like, how do you utilize these tools to ultimately make money?

17:53Right. To ultimately make your life better.

17:55Uh, and I do think that I’ve, I’ve been telling more and more of my friends that are very non-technical as well of like, Hey, like download Muse, download GrokBot.

18:05Like there’s so much more user-friendly than, uh, your chat GPTs and clouds, although like they’re catching up very fast.

18:11Right. And so, um, I don’t know.

18:14I’m just like, I’m still crazy bullish on the space.

18:17I still think that ultimately like AI usage is going to skyrocket from here.

18:22And I, I do want to talk about again, like, you know, as to come back to the AI trade for a second, right?

18:29Like even like those Nvidia headlines.

18:31Right. And like, that’s, that was negative for Nvidia.

18:34Right. If they’re not going to be shipping as many, um, as many units, either the next quarter or throughout the year, the numbers are probably going to come down.

18:42But I do think that like demand is still skyrocketing.

18:46Right. So then you sit there and you’re looking at neoclouds and you’re like, well, their rental rates should probably get even tighter.

18:53Right. If that’s the case. Right. And so, um, again, you know, there’s, there’s probably two sides, there is two sides to every coin.

18:59And I think that that’s something that people need to, um, take into account.

19:03So it’s like, even though it’s like, all right, how, how negative is this news?

19:07And I know Nebius is, is also gapping down with the AI trade, but then I’m sitting there and I’m like, well, is this really that negative?

19:13Because like, if there’s less chips that are shipping out, then that means that like, there’s less demand that can be filled.

19:23So rates go up. Right. Like that’s the way capitalism works. Right. That’s the way that’s my, that’s micro econ, like one-on-one.

19:29Right. And so we’re macro both. And so, um, yeah, it’s just like stuff to be cognizant of.

19:35Um, but again, I, I just think that, um, maybe with the way, you know, midterms coming up, we’ve got less than 30 days.

19:44It seems like stuff is really heating up.

19:46I, I just see more and more, let’s call it like dividing propaganda on my timeline.

19:52Um, that like, is like rage bait for either side of the aisle, whether you’re Dem or Republican.

19:56Um, there’s just a ton of rage bait out there.

19:59And yeah. It’s going to continue for the next 30 days, and then it’s probably going to die down.

20:02The way it has, I’d say, like every election cycle, probably at this point for the last like nine years, I think since like the first Trump election.

20:11And it’s just been getting, I think, like a little bit worse and worse each election cycle.

20:16And we’re probably just going to see that.

20:17And rates are still high.

20:19And I think people are just going to wait, you know, just be risk off or risk neutral until after midterms at this point.

20:28Yep, I’m expecting a lot of neutral positions here going forward.

20:32That seemed to be the sentiment of the timeline from a lot of the bigger accounts and even smaller accounts.

20:39We’re starting to see anybody who is wading into the pool of risk on getting kind of, you know, death by a thousand paper cuts right now.

20:48I know Robinhood chain has been also a very large center of attention on, is this capitulation, where you see a lot of people saying, all right, the trade on Robinhood is completely over.

21:01Meanwhile, Robinhood is talking about, hey, in our first hundred days, we’ve done billions of volume of tokenized equities.

21:09Because there’s, I think there’s a lot of scrutiny on, like, where, what is the right time to put real risk back on the table with capital you don’t want to lose.

21:20I don’t know, I’m still, as far as, like, the Robinhood stuff goes, I do think that some of the euphoria of the chain being around is certainly fading.

21:28I think the pawns trade, which I said I was still bullish on, I think you have to take a real understanding that the entire macro plus the Robinhood sentiment is really harming that.

21:43And we’re likely seeing Solana also get really aggressive here.

21:48So, you know, there’s a multitude of reasons why we’re starting to see a pullback there, less activity.

21:55And I think also a little bit of the, like, hot trench days being over.

22:01I know Adam Tech, who does a lot of the Dune dashboards, is building his own service, has an index for that.

22:09And it is the coldest the trenches have been in four months right now, from a sentiment and activity perspective.

22:15I don’t think there’s any surprise if you look at the numbers and the graduate numbers.

22:21But no, I agree with you. And I think part of that, too, has to do with sentiment around the majors, right?

22:27Particularly Bitcoin and ETH.

22:28And I think we’ve always seen this, right?

22:32Up moves in the majors, it’s like a liquidity cascade, right?

22:35And so, you know, people make money on the majors, they have a little more money to splash around and on chain, which is like, because if you think about it, right?

22:43Like, if you were to look at, let’s say, a classic overall crypto portfolio construction, right?

22:50You’re probably, like, let’s say 50% to 60% in Bitcoin, let’s say 30% to 40% in ETH, Sol, and maybe, like, a couple other, like, let’s call them legacy alts.

23:05And then maybe, like, 5% to 10% in, like, on chain gambling new stuff, right?

23:12And I think, like, that’s, like, the way I personally have, like, let’s say, constructed a lot of my portfolio stuff in the past, maybe a little more further, maybe a little bit bigger allocation on the far end of the curve, because, like, that’s just the way, like, I like to trade it.

23:29But if that’s the case, then, like, you know, people make money in Bitcoin, it starts cascading down and going out on the risk curve.

23:38And if people are scared that Bitcoin is going to move back and make new lows, then, of course, on chain is going to dry up, right?

23:45No matter how cool the primitives are, but, like, I think people, you just have to keep on showing up, seeing cool new stuff.

23:52And then when that liquidity comes back and people want to play those games, you’re positioned accordingly.

23:59Or you at least know what’s going on, right?

24:01And I think also with all these AI tools that people – you can use AI as, like – I feel like AI is really leveling the playing field amongst people in the sense that you don’t have to be as technical to actually, like – You have to be technical at all. I watch somebody who’s never code a line of code build their own website over the weekend, and I genuinely was, like, okay, this is pretty good.

24:28Like, I think we also have to realize a lot of previous websites, you’re, like, hey, build a, you know, a blog for yourself.

24:37They were turning to WordPress and, you know, kind of, you know, these drag-and-drop builders, and you’re very boxed in.

24:44You wanted to do anything custom, you know, you were going to Stack Overflow and trying to understand how to use cPanel and all this stuff.

24:52Like, I was thinking about, like, if I had kids, I think now, like, 30 years down the road from now, I was trying to explain to them, or even less than that, like, 10 years, 20 years down the road, being like, yeah, back in my day, you had to, like, go to a site.

25:07You had to type in to register your domain, that you go about, like, right now, you can literally just be, hey, Claude, I want to do this.

25:14Go buy this domain. Go, like, set this up. Here’s what I want it to do. Here’s my inspiration. Boom, done. And it’s just out there.

25:22And that is this, like, all right, if you can just think it, you can make it happen now.

25:28Which also means IP is dead as far as software goes, in my opinion.

25:32It’s kind of just over.

25:33Okay, so I agree with you, and I’ll bring up the example from Paper Trade over the weekend.

25:38Are you familiar with Paper Trade? I am, yes. Did you look at it? Okay, so Paper Trade, for those unfamiliar, is a 1000x leveraged perps platform built on top of Hyperliquid, and it’s built by two chads, Jez and Blur, right?

25:54And these guys are awesome, great reputations.

25:56I’ve known, I’ve actually never met Jez.

25:59We’ve chatted online a bunch, but I know Blur personally for years, and this guy is, like, the chad of chads.

26:07Like, his stories are insane. So that launched over the weekend.

26:12Going into it, I was, like, you know, working with AI to develop, all right, what’s the best way for me to farm this?

26:19And I was planning on doing it, and I had, like, a whole system set it up.

26:24I set it up on my VPS. I had a wallet. Like, I deposited to it a small amount, but then, like, I was sleeping, like, when it launched, so I was, like, ah, man, like, I guess I’m just watching.

26:34But I think the interesting thing is, like, again, like, if everybody comes up with the same strategy to farm, then you have to, like, kind of think outside the box, right?

26:45And it’s, like, well, if everybody’s doing this strategy, you have to take it one step further.

26:49It’s, like, how do I optimize?

26:51Because this is, like, all, like, this is all game theory, right?

26:53It’s, like, if every player is doing this to win, what do you have to do differently in order to win, right?

26:59And so what I didn’t realize was that you had to be putting $10 million notional in order to be able to farm this at the outset because everybody else was kind of being put in the queue because it was prioritized by trade size.

27:14And so basically, like, the biggest farmers, I guess, like, made a bunch of money really early on, and now the question is, like, whether people come and stay and keep on trading.

27:23So that’s, like, the next portion of this, but, like, I thought it was just kind of interesting because, like, everybody was talking about this on the timeline on Friday and Saturday, and I think unless you were, like, an industrial farmer that has been in the game for a long time and you had that technical know-how, you probably lost, right?

27:43And so, like, I’m pretty happy that.

27:45I think most people certainly lost there, but there are also a lot of people that won incredibly big with very smart strategies and also taking on a lot of risk at the same time.

27:55Like, if you want to make anything in farming, usually there’s a level of risk you are taking, and it’s going to favor the people that are the earliest.

28:06I think there was somebody who did, like, $10 billion in volume, ended up losing $1 million, but was able to realize $1 million on the token, and then ended up making, like, $50K, like, a lot of...

28:22Well, so far, right? Because, like, they also, that, like, that’s, like, earning them yield on top of that, right?

28:27So I saw that as well.

28:29I know, I think CBB said that he farmed it really big and really early and then closed out the position, I think, pretty early on, but, like, was able to farm a bunch of tokens.

28:40So, again, I think the people that have experience doing this are still, you know, going to have that experience because they understand it as opposed to being, like, hey, like, what do you think?

28:48Because, like, I think you also have to have a mind for the game theory behind it.

28:52I’m not necessarily that great at the game theory behind these things.

28:55So I know that, like, I’m at a disadvantage, so I can’t be, like, let’s go in with, like, a million dollars to do this, like, because I know that I’m at a structural disadvantage, right?

29:05Because I don’t think about it adversarially the way that maybe these guys that do understand it.

29:11So, but, like, you know, at the very least, though, I was able to kind of understand the optimal strategy, which pretty much everybody was saying on the timeline on Friday and Saturday, which I don’t know if that turned out to be the optimal strategy.

29:28Because if everybody’s doing it, again, like, the alpha is in trading against them.

29:33So I just thought that that was interesting, though.

29:35But I think that’s one of the things.

29:37And I think this will be more and more pertinent in AI when it comes to financial decisions and trading overall, right?

29:44Like, if everybody’s AI is telling them that, like, Micron is a buy, then, like, Micron might not be a buy, right?

29:55Because, like, consensus, right?

29:57Because, like, that’s where, like, a lot of the alpha relies on, right?

29:59It’s like, it’s like... What is counter to consensus? And that’s where like the money is made because if everybody’s long, who’s left to buy?

30:06So these are definitely things I think to be thinking about when working with these things, especially in money-making conditions where there’s a lot of different players and everybody is trying to extract money in some way, shape, or form.

30:21Or you just, it’s almost like you have to take it into like that second derivative of, hey, if this is what the message is, what is it?

30:28Which I think is going to be the most valuable area. And so from our perspective, like we are a data provider.

30:36So when we provide this out to somebody, we know they’re going to most likely put this into an AI model.

30:42We assume this all converges. Everybody ends up at the same, you know, they’re like, hey, what meme coin should I buy?

30:48It’s going to look at the same data set and most likely come up with like, here are the three tokens you should buy.

30:53Where I think there’s a far larger outset or upside here is by being a B2B provider, an info provider, also allowing for the customization of the lens you look through and the end user to actually say, hey, I believe in these certain theses or I tend to have this certain risk profile and like, regardless of what anybody says I’m a hype maxi, like those, those biases, those weightings actually don’t exist for a lot of these like companies that are doing this stuff.

31:29So that that’s where my attention is at right now. But I do think that if you extrapolate that across the entire sector, which is kind of what I was getting back to with the product hunt guy earlier in the show, basically comes back to that like where what’s your proprietary thing?

31:45How are you? How are you making something that when the next bottle comes out? You’re not it’s not worthless.

31:52Right. I do think paper trade.

31:55Honestly, paper trade has more daily revenue than hyperliquid right now.

32:01It is one of the most profitable companies in crypto, has the most volume in crypto.

32:07I’m sure that Blur and Jez have more tricks up their sleeve as this continues to go on.

32:14But yeah, something to definitely keep on the radar here.

32:18Good innovation. You love to see people.

32:21Yeah, I mean, it was a very cool on chain game. Right.

32:23And like, I do think I know people have been like pointing out, oh, ways that it could get exploited.

32:30And I think there was an exploit, although I don’t want to necessarily call it an exploit because it just seemed like somebody was trading around on hyperliquid in a low volume like environment and like moving it around.

32:44But listen, like blur is like one of the goats in terms of being an adversarial competitor.

32:52And like, I remember talking to him a couple of months ago and he’s like, I’ve been like trying to break this thing for months.

32:57And he’s like, once I can get to a point where I can’t break it, then I feel comfortable that like it’s a low probability that somebody else can.

33:04And yeah, so it’s it’s very cool in that sense, but it’s very a cool, innovative product.

33:11We’ll see. I’m sure people will try to break it.

33:14People have already been trying, but I’m sure people will try again.

33:17And I think the bigger that honeypot gets of, you know, the because right now it initially was a five million dollar pot and then it pays out dividends to anybody above that five million.

33:28They bumped it up to 10 million. So like that bank, that bankroll is going to get bigger and bigger.

33:33And so that honeypot will get bigger. Right.

33:36And so when that honeypot gets bigger, then people are more incentivized to kind of try to break it. Right.

33:42So it’ll be cool. It’ll be fun. It’ll be fun to watch nonetheless.

33:45Yeah. Not to be. And obviously I had a chat come here, not to be confused, a blur, the platform, which is winding down.

33:55That’s a great that’s a great segue. Wow. That was that was a great segue.

33:59Anyway, yeah. So basically, I guess a lot has happened in the on chain world since since Thursday show.

34:11Right. We had abstract shutting down or announcing the shutdown.

34:16Pac-Man announced the shutdown of blast.

34:19But I think that might have been out a while ago already.

34:22But I think the new news is that blur is shutting down.

34:25And I think that came out Sunday or Monday night.

34:29Good riddance. Right. I feel like blur blur the protocol did a lot to kill NFTs.

34:38And I think it it sucked. I mean, listen, it was probably going to happen.

34:42NFTs were going to. What was going to happen was going to happen anyway.

34:46But I think it just happened much faster.

34:48It accelerated it for sure. It took it took away the idea of like, this is a fun thing.

34:54And, you know, community and kind of just like showing up.

34:58Yeah. It took all the emotion out of it, which, you know, there there were, I think, a small subset of people that were playing this, you know, hey, I’m going to wake up and I’m just going to see how much money I can profit every day.

35:09And a majority of people are like, I want to show up and tweet on the timeline.

35:15And I think it was also accelerated by kind of like this end tale of COVID ending where people were kind of like, all right, I’m done staying in my on the computer.

35:24I’m getting outside. I’m done with this this crap.

35:27But, yeah, we’re that is certainly a smear.

35:32And we definitely saw a lot of the NFT artist community come out and celebrate the death of Blur and Blast and of the pain that might have been felt there from certain people that had their collections, you know, go lower than they wanted them to.

35:47I will note that Pac-Man is associated or linked to another platform that is, I think, going to launch here. That is a Axiom, Loot, FOMO, GMGN competitor.

36:06My opinion there is, you know, they’re probably going to run it back just with something else.

36:13You think so? Yeah, of course.

36:16So, OK, I think Pac-Man is obviously a very good product builder.

36:23He’s very good at product and he’s very good at understanding, let’s say, gamification and user incentives. And he’s very cutthroat. But I don’t know.

36:35I don’t know. Like, I will. I’m not going to rush out to, like, support him.

36:40You know what I mean? I don’t think anybody’s going to rush out after this. This comes back to, like, sentiment in the market and reputation.

36:49Well, I guess to that point, like, I’ll bring up the reputation thing of when he launched Blast, he raised for Blur.

37:00And I know this because I’d spoken to a couple. I was an investor in Blur. I was not an investor in Blur, but I know a couple of people that were. So he raised for Blur. And then when Blur was crushing it, he decided to launch Blast. But then did a separate raise and didn’t even go to hit the didn’t go to the majority of his investors. I think he just went to Paradigm.

37:24Yeah, he went to Paradigm. To raise for Blast. And he cut everybody else out. And he cut everybody else out. So all these people that supported him, all these VCs that supported him were then cut out of his new thing, which at one point, I mean, Blast was, like, I think, valued at, like, a billion or two billion dollars.

37:41Like, it was something insane. Yes. And none of these VCs saw any of that upside or, like, had any of exposure there. And so I think, like, to the point of, like, getting support, I think, you know, he probably doesn’t need to raise.

37:54He probably can still fund this all on his own. But I do think that there’s this element of community support in crypto that sometimes these people that are very cutthroat and maybe see things from a very binary, like, win-lose framework really, like, screw themselves over in the long run. Because at the end of the day, and I think we’re going to see an acceleration of this, especially in the world of AI, is, like, at the end of the day, your reputation will matter a lot and will ultimately, right, like, I think your decision-making either leads to money in the short term and less money in the long term or more money in the long term by foregoing profits in the short term. And I think we’re probably going to see that play out. We’re going to see how that plays out with Pac-Man. But listen, crypto is also notorious for forgiving people. So, you know, maybe he comes back and nobody gives a fuck and, you know.

38:50Yeah, you just need, you need a hundred people. You need a hundred people that’ll ride or die with you and you’re, I think you’re good. I think for, for any, any company that’s launching, you get a hundred people that are like, hey, I’m in this. I’m going to ride with you.

39:01Love it. You’ll, you’ll find that economy of scale. You’ll feel, feel that growth. You’ll have that engagement. It’s, it is probably the most cutthroat vertical in crypto though, right now is the consumer trading platform. I think terminals to a degree are, you know, this is hard, hard to say also as somebody who operates a trading terminal. But I think the desktop trading terminal interface has seen its top to a degree. I think mobile certainly is going to be still like the competitive space where you see everybody fighting for. And I probably would make the argument here with, you know, and I’m happy to talk, talk like my own strategy here, but I do think we’re going to see a large role into, uh, who has the strongest data sets, who has the best automation. Um, I don’t know. Um, um, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, um, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, Thank you.

40:00And probably like, you know, some to a degree agentic trading, but like I want to just be able to wake up and be like, all right, I want to make some money, type a few things on my keyboard, click a few things and know, all right, I’m going to make some money today or, you know, at least I’m setting myself up to make some money instead of just going and clicking in, you know, the compass all day.

40:19I do think there’s a maturity level entering a lot of the trading ecosystem.

40:26No, we’ll see. Obviously, gambling right now is at all-time highs.

40:31Yeah, I mean, listen, I agree. I want to double click on something you just said about the 100 true fans, because I think that’s very pertinent to the abstract shutdown.

40:43And I know there was a lot of conversation on this on the timeline last week. And I was, you know, like I was reading a lot of it. I kind of weighed in here and there.

40:54I want to say full disclosure, I’m an Igloo investor. But I also I guess I want to give like my perspective on what happened. And I see both sides, right. And I will say from a founder that had to shut down a business a little over a year ago, I was, I was flirting with the idea of launching a token up until like three hours before we made the official announcement.

41:23And I’m thankful that I didn’t because, you know, like I was I was talking to a lot of people and getting their points of view.

41:30And honestly, like at the end of the day, if like, you don’t like launching a token is very, very hard. And it is a 24 hour, seven day a week business. And it adds this extra level of strain on a startup, no matter how successful you are, right.

41:49Even if you’re incredibly successful, you don’t, you’re still a startup, right. And you’re still, you know, struggling to stay alive.

41:55So when I saw that announcement, as a founder, I definitely had a lot of compassion in the sense that, yeah, like if you don’t think it’s working, then definitely don’t launch a token.

42:10Because I saw some of the reaction on the timeline was people being like, oh, well, you could have at least launched the token.

42:15I’m like, well, if anything, that probably creates more liability and more losers overall for the ecosystem and more negative reflexivity in terms of feedback.

42:28So I think not launching a token was the right move, especially if, you know, you weren’t going to be leaning into it.

42:33And, you know, I don’t think anybody wants to be working on a business that they don’t see like the upside in, right.

42:42And it’s better to kind of like, you know, I, there was, there was something about, man, who was it?

42:48I think Shamath said it on, on a, on a podcast once that really stuck with me is like, if you’re going to lose, lose fast, right.

42:55Make mistakes fast, learn from them and move on.

42:58You don’t want to delay the inevitable if you know what’s coming.

43:01So I get that, right. Where I do see what people were upset about is the fact that, you know, Luca is, is very persuasive.

43:10And I, you know, hearing him talk anytime I would hear him talk on a podcast or hear him talk, uh, wherever, like in spaces or whatever, he’s very, very persuasive.

43:19And I’d be like, Oh my God, like, I don’t own enough abstract assets.

43:23I don’t enough own enough Pengu.

43:25And I think, um, people fell for that or, you know, like believed him and they feel betrayed.

43:32And so I think that that’s where, um, a lot of that sentiment is coming from where, you know, you see some of these clips in retrospect and you’re like, wow.

43:40Wow, man. Like I, I trusted you.

43:43I believed you. And like, this is how you, you, uh, treated me.

43:46So I know like people since then have also been saying, Oh, well, they could do something with Pengu again.

43:52I’m sure a lot of these combos, um, are being, have been had internally.

43:57Uh, I’m super curious, like what your take is on it, but like, I definitely see both sides and I definitely, but I definitely think not launching a token, knowing that like this wasn’t a viable business was the right move.

44:09Right. Um, and that is without even like thinking about like, you know, what he was saying going into it.

44:18Right. But like, maybe that’s, to me, that’s where like the mistake was probably like hyping it up and getting people really excited about it.

44:25Um, when, you know, but like, again, I think part of it too, as being a founder is like, you have to be insanely optimistic to try to get this.

44:34You have to be delusional. You have to be completely delusional. You know, and like that, and I think that’s like one of the things that you see over and over again with any startup, not just in crypto, but any startup.

44:44Right. And I think maybe somebody like an Elizabeth Holmes was this to an insane degree where, you know, she wanted to change the world.

44:51She really wanted to do this stuff. And she was just trying to like, will it into existence and you have like, to your point, you have to be delusional.

44:58Right. And so you have to get people to believe in your, even like we work.

45:02Right. I remember looking at we work and being like, this is just the coworking space.

45:07Like, why is this being valued insanely?

45:09But like, again, Adam Neumann, great orator, great, very persuasive person.

45:14Right. Um, I would love to meet him in person because I’m sure he’s, you know, I’ve seen him talk on podcasts and stuff, but like, I’m sure he’s even more persuasive when you’re in the room with him.

45:23Right. And so, um, yeah, I, again, shitty situation.

45:28Um, I’m sure, uh, the team is not like happy about it.

45:33Right. Like, I don’t think anybody wants to fail or shut down or whatever, and especially do it so publicly.

45:38So, um, I understand both sides there.

45:41Yeah. My, my short, concise take here is, um, I, I think the core operating team at, at Igloo are incredible salespeople.

45:52I think that they have huge ambitions.

45:55I think not launching a token is the best decision that they could have made, uh, on, on the tail end of this.

46:03I think if you’re going to, they were ever going to do a token, they were either going to do it right at the start, or they were going to do it as things popped off.

46:10And he never really had that, that momentum to drive into.

46:14Um, and I do think that they have a very wide business, uh, when you look at overpass and pudgy penguins and pudgy penguins, uh, the game and the web two side.

46:25Uh, and I think, uh, one core thing that I have learned with, and especially running loot the last almost two years now is you need to just find the thing that you’re the best at and you have the most success and just focus on that.

46:41Like you can’t, you can’t, you can’t spread it into two dozen things.

46:44If you try to do that, you’re going to die, you know, again, death by a thousand paper cuts.

46:48Um, I think they recognize that they’re just dominating on the web two side of, of, you know, pudgy penguins right now.

46:56I think that it was a very expensive, uh, thing to run.

47:01And, um, I think instead of causing more damage to the community, they, they had to take one, you know, a lick on the face and, uh, just know that they were going to get a lot of crap for it.

47:11And I think that’s the responsible choice instead of, you know, trying to, to, to YOLO it, um, the writings on the wall.

47:21So, uh, I, I don’t think I have any hate here.

47:25I obviously I wasn’t like super financially exposed to it.

47:29So I will say, I think like one of the things that this, this brought up to me is like, I’ve never been a farmer per se.

47:38And I think like, if you have maybe like under a certain amount of liquid crypto, then farming to me at scale makes sense.

47:47But I think like once you’re above a certain amount, whether I think that for me, like, I think that number would be like 25 or 50 K then like, you shouldn’t be farming.

47:57I think the upside from farming isn’t all that high.

48:00Um, and for that reason, I like in farming, like, I’ll be like, all right, maybe I leave like generational wealth on the table, but I’m okay with that because my time is more valuable.

48:12And like, if maybe I’m farming something and putting like some of capital work in there and the hopes of getting an airdrop in the future, again, I don’t know what that airdrop is.

48:22I don’t know how much it’s going to be. I don’t know if I’ll be made whole or what the ROI is on that.

48:27So I would prefer not to play those games.

48:29So I think like once you have over a certain amount of net worth, um, in crypto or like whatever your stack is, it probably isn’t positive EV to spend.

48:42And this isn’t just for abstract. I think this is for like almost any, uh, any ecosystem that has.

48:48You got to assume that the airdrops work nothing, right?

48:51Like if you’re fine, I also, yeah, I think that like the airdrops that happened in 2020 that were like very surprise and delight that made people a lot of money.

49:02I, and I can specifically think of like, I remember the Uniswap airdrop.

49:06I think the one inch airdrop was on Christmas day.

49:09Um, and I remember that was like pretty decently sized.

49:13Um, but yeah, I just think like those things are of, of days past of years past where you’ll be like, oh my God.

49:20Like I, you know, did like a thousand dollars worth of volume and I made 10 grand off of it.

49:26Like, I just don’t, I don’t think that, that, um, is going to, that I don’t think that that’s going to happen again at that size.

49:33Right. I think it’ll be a significantly smaller airdrop.

49:35Yeah. It’s going to be, you know, a lottery ticket type thing, which even in previous airdrops, that was kind of like the lottery ticket of like, oh, I hit it big on this.

49:44But, you know, uh, I would say you have to have the mentality in this industry that is once something becomes hot, everybody’s going to do it.

49:54And then that, that kind of met is burned meme coins of celebrities that burned.

49:59You’re never going to see those come back. I think the traditional airdrop play that we’ve seen, that’s burned and the farming that we’ve traditionally seen, that’s burned.

50:08And we’re probably going to, we’ll probably have to wait a little bit before we see the next like real kind of like surprise thing come out of nowhere that’s like, wow, how did I miss that?

50:19That was right around my nose. But it’s also why I got to stay curious. I feel like I preach that a lot on the show.

50:25So, yeah, always stay curious. I think there’s a lot of, a lot of alpha in always wanting to learn to stay curious.

50:33I think that’s kind of one of the things we try to hammer on the show and, you know, to be doing it ourselves and then kind of like sharing, you know, some of that curiosity with people to help them navigate the markets and whatnot.

50:47Yeah. On that kind of topic of curiosity, I do want to, and I kind of gave some hate to the meme points there, but I will say across crypto right now, my curiosity still stays on on-chain equities coming to chain where who’s going to win from that.

51:04I still see Hyperliquid as one of the biggest winners there. Hyperliquid, as it comes across the bottom of the screen, even $81 down from its almost $100 peak a few weeks ago.

51:19I think we were trading around 90, even a few, a few days ago. So continue to see that slip and as well as lighter, who has just gotten the short end of the stick on everything here.

51:29Additionally, I do think that as we start to see AI pop off, I think on-chain inference is going to become a very important topic.

51:39I believe that we’re going to see also Tau coming across the bottom of the screen as I say that.

51:45I also think on-chain verification is going to become probably one of the most anticipated categories into 2027.

51:55This kind of stems off of the idea that cryptography is at its weakest it’s ever been, and if anybody’s going to solve it, it will happen within the world of crypto.

52:10But additionally, I think this whole question of like, is something real? Is somebody human?

52:14Was this photo really taken by somebody? It’s also going to find its way onto the blockchain in a significant manner.

52:22I do think WorldCoin is one that I keep coming back to.

52:26For some reason, this idea of like on-chain verification of human identity is very impactful.

52:35I replied to DC Investor on the timeline today, basically kind of saying, And he was kind of alluding to the idea that everything fails if we don’t address the bot and the slop that is taking over the internet.

52:51And I don’t even know who’s real in some cases anymore that is replying to me or DMing me.

52:58And so like I do think we’re going to see that take flight.

53:03I don’t know who’s going to solve it. I assume it will be Apple because they have the biggest distribution and not only software but hardware and the largest amount of trust.

53:13Again, trust a huge narrative point for where I see upside in trades right now.

53:20It’s funny. I think that along that, right, I think it’s probably Apple.

53:25It’s like let’s think about that.

53:27Apple, I think Meta is up there as well.

53:32And I kind of feel like ChatGPT might be in that race as well.

53:35Because like obviously this is something – and ChatGPT by extension WorldCoin, right?

53:41Because WorldCoin is a Sam Altman project.

53:45And this is definitely something he’s been thinking about for years, right?

53:49So he’s obviously been thinking about this a lot.

53:51So I would say like for me at the top of that list would probably be those three.

53:56I guess maybe you could put Google in there, but they don’t really have the hardware distribution angle.

54:04But this almost seems like it’s – in my opinion, it might be Meta’s game to lose just because they have a lot of like – consumer products that are coming out that like people are going to most likely want, right?

54:21Like the Muse Q-chains, the AR glasses where, you know, Apple definitely does have that distribution at the moment.

54:28But also like, I mean, Apple as a percentage of smartphone distribution is much smaller than Android’s, right?

54:37So I think this is like an interesting playing field.

54:39Yeah, my prediction is that Meta has just decided to completely – at their very North Star model, their like leading frontier model will be consumer and agentic activity focused.

54:56It will not be can we do the best coding?

54:59Can we do – like it will literally be can we have the best assistant?

55:02Can we have the best thing that helps you run and live your life and add convenience to your life?

55:08And I think that is – I don’t know.

55:12I’m more bullish on Meta than I have previously been, especially when I start to think about like the hardware angle that they’re playing.

55:24Will be interesting. I mean, the Meta chart looks pretty bullish, you know, in the face of like AI selling off like Meta and part of it too yesterday, it started pumping because they came out with announcements saying that they have frontier level intelligence in their model, which let’s be honest, it’s going to get leapfrogged with whatever the next drop is, whether – whatever competitor comes out from it.

55:52Because I think even like ChatGPT and Anthropic are both like kind of openly talking about how their models that aren’t released are just doing incredible things at this point.

56:02But I also want to talk about – you brought it up pre-show, and I know we have a couple minutes left, but I want to talk about it too – is Gemini, right?

56:10Yeah. So Gemini, out of the Google camp, they came out with announcements of Gemini 4.

56:18If you look at Polymarket and a bunch of other prediction markets, there’s now a 50-50 toss-up between Gemini and Claude to have the best model by the end of 2026.

56:33This, as of recent, like four weeks ago, I think Claude was up there around like an 80% or so likelihood – yeah, there’s the onscreen – 80% only a few weeks ago – actually, a week or so ago.

56:51And now it is a 50-50 run, nowhere to be seen, open AI or meta or anybody – or Grok.

57:01So it will be an interesting end to the year here.

57:03I think this also kind of alludes to the idea that we’re not going to have another significant model from Anthropic in the next two months, three months here, which is a little disappointing as that is kind of my camp of choice.

57:19But yeah, they’re clearly – Google, as we’ve said before on the show, kind of coming out of nowhere and saying, hey, did you forget about us?

57:27Right. Yeah. I mean, listen, this was what they – October 1st.

57:31I think this was – obviously, people have been kind of expecting this now for a couple weeks, and I think even maybe like a month ago at some point, when one of the weekends where there was a big scare, Google started – people connected to Google started teasing recursive self-improvement, which I think at some point – I saw this week that a lot of people are – a lot of people think that a lot of these models, a lot of these companies now have it.

58:01And I do want to highlight before we go that I read this last week.

58:07I saw the chart, and we’ve seen the chart multiple times, but only 2% of American households pay for AI.

58:14And that is so baffling to me, and Karpathy, I think, came out with a tweet over the weekend of how few people – like something like – I think he estimates something like 20 million people actually use AI to the full of their capabilities.

58:30And that’s like – there’s 8 billion people on planet Earth, and only 20 million.

58:34So it’s like – and if you look at 2% of the population actually pays for AI, how many of them actually pay like the max plan, right?

58:43So you’re talking about probably like less than 1% of the American population.

58:48It’s just like – I think just like learning these tools, learning how to use them, you put yourself at such an advantage over everybody else that much faster.

58:57And I just can’t hammer that enough of like utilizing this stuff as much as possible because you’re going to be in – you’re going to put yourself in such a good spot compared to everybody else, even just paying for like the $20 a month model and then being able to see how powerful it is.

59:15Yep. I had a fun interaction.

59:18I realized somebody was using AI to negotiate or communicate with me, and I know they’re definitely not paying for a model, and I know for a fact that because I have a better model and better context and better setup, I was able to essentially win the outcome of that, which is a story for another day.

59:40But yeah, worth paying for the better model.

59:48It’s paying off for me.

59:50All right. Awesome.

59:52Yeah, I mean I think that that was a good show.

59:54I think we should wrap here.

59:58Chat on Thursday. I mean for everybody that’s not watching this live.

1:00:02You know, please check out our socials as we’re working on them and working on wrapping that, ramping them up.

1:00:08You can listen to everything on YouTube, on Spotify.

1:00:12If you guys have any other recommendations on place to go, check out the website.

1:00:16So, yeah, I think we’ll see you guys on Thursday.

1:00:19We will see you on Thursday.

1:00:21And for those asking, it’s fullportshow.com.

1:00:25You can check it out there. Full recap of the show will be up momentarily.

1:00:29And we’ll catch you on Thursday.

1:00:31Cheers, guys. Cheers.