Quantum Scare, Trump vs Iran, and Who Wins Tokenized Stocks!

0:00What is up everybody? Good morning and welcome back to another episode of Full Port. I’m Hunter Orrell. We’re joined with my co-host, one of my favorite people in the world, one of the best traders in the world, gmoney. Yeah, I got to hype you up. It’s a good Thursday.

0:14I’m feeling it. It’s good, man. We’re surviving what seems to be math Armageddon right now as it seems as a cryptic cryptography has been solved by open AI. I’ve got a huge take there on what I think is going on and whether it’s a big deal or not. But everybody’s concerned about their tokens and their coins. I’m comfy just typing away in in Claude and I’m going to I’m going to pray the nerds figure it out. Let’s let’s start there because I know as we were going through the run of the show, I actually am surprised we didn’t talk about that. But basically, right, like Justin Drake put out and I think this is kind of what led to the little bit of the weakness in the last 24 hours in crypto specifically. But I do think it’s a combination of also rates or the market I felt like got we literally right after we spoke about rates and the market holding in strong. I feel like the market got a little weaker Tuesday afternoon and yesterday. And even today, there was a little bit of a gap down. But I do think the crypto weakness in general came from that Justin Drake tweet, right, where he was talking about he was basically like, hey, there’s no need to panic, but you should move all of your crypto to wallets that have never interacted

1:45with anything before. And so I think that like kind of led to a little bit of a risk off environment within within crypto, although I mean, I mean, I know Bitcoin is broken below the 83k. But I kind of you know, like it’s yeah, I think it’s obviously of something that you should be concerned about. And you should always be thinking about right this type of this type of quantum risk that people have been talking about now for like a little over a year, maybe two years at this point. And it seems to be coming to a head a little bit faster than maybe others think. And that’s maybe because of the progression of AI. So I’d love to hear like your take on it what you’re thinking. But yeah, I think I think the main thing I want people to understand is this how this all spawned in. Because this shouldn’t be a new a new thing for anybody. And I think if you also step back, I think about the original days of the internet, and a lot of the technology we use today, there’s been a similar concern, maybe not at the scale of like what a black swan event would look like. But you know, even in 2000, we thought when the clock switched over, you know, the entire world would stop working. The nice thing about the the doom

3:04of all this is that there’s equally on the other side, a technological innovation that can come out and push this further back. So as encryption throughout the years has always gotten weaker with the advancement of technologies and compute, we are also seeing the advancement of it becoming stronger. This all spawned out of open AI posting some math proofs. And essentially, there was a very glaring lack of cryptographic information within there. And this made a lot of people I think, scratch their heads and say, All right, if they are redacting, or if there’s a lack of actual proof in this, they’re not they’re not holding back in, you know, learning academia, just because they don’t want, you know, just because Oh, like, we don’t want to like overshare, they’re doing it for a very implicit reason of like, okay, if we do share this, we actually are revealing something that gives not only an edge to the people that are creating the solutions and able to understand how to push this forward, but also to maybe some of the people with the less savory takes of how to use that, you know, these innovations. And so that is what spawned this conversation. I do think that the take from Justin was a bit early

4:24to jump the gun. What’s the point? Like, I don’t see the point, like, there’s nothing really anybody can do. If we do see this, it’s going to be something that we deal at, a much different level. But I also think like my take, and as well as I asked, some of the top photographers in the world, some of the top people dealing with the systems in the world, essentially, is this correct, they validated that take. And basically, what came down to was we can always just make it bigger, like we can just make seeds bigger, we can just change like because it’s bound by compute, right? So at the end of the day, like, is this the end of the world? No, is it something to be concerned about? Sure. Do I think it is a by the dip opportunity, unless there is really something that we are not aware of it, unless there is like two, a real Black Swan event. Sure, like that, that’s like the one in a thousand chance. I think this is a by the dip opportunity where, again, as you’ll see in the rest of the show, we talk about tokenized equities and why the blockchain is here to stay, and it will be a technology we use, I think you got to be bullish on the industry you show up to every day, and this is not the end of it. So it’s overblown. I’m not concerned. I will say that,

5:45you know, if you want to share my screen, last night, Vitalik put out a tweet being like, you know, cause for concern, obviously thinking about it, this is a solution we should go towards, but you don’t need to necessarily go guns blazing just yet. I think one of the things that I had read the Justin Drake thing yesterday morning or early yesterday, and then I saw a tweet of somebody said that how Joe Lubin moved like $300 million to like new wallets.

6:17And that to me, I was like, Oh, I’m like, maybe I should be concerned. And that was like, that was when I was like, Oh, shit. I’m like, maybe, maybe there actually is something here.

6:28But I want to be clear about that. There, there certainly is something here. I’m not saying this is all made up. I think the timeline of when it could be affecting, affecting us, the, the thing for the reality of most people is that your balance is not big enough to worry about this, right? Like you don’t, you don’t got to worry. But it’s all relative, right? Because what’s big for you could not be big for somebody else and vice versa and all that, right? So it’s like, if I lost like, some significant portion of my capital and crypto, I’d be, I’d be pretty sad, right? And so I think no matter what that number is, it matters on an individual basis, that like, there was a conversation, I think it was yesterday, or maybe it was the day before, where a buddy of mine, who has a bunch of money, custody to Coinbase was like, Hey, like, you know, tell me about like ledger wallets and hardware or hardware wallets in general.

7:24And I was kind of like, well, I mean, my personal take is that if you’re on Coinbase or one of these centralized exchanges, I feel like you’re pretty safe in terms of like hack, obviously, hack risk. I don’t know necessarily all of this, what’s going on with this cryptography stuff. So I think that like, that brings like an extra layer of, of risk on there. But it was, it was pretty funny because I was not pretty funny, but I was just kind of like, well, you’re basically like the risk you really take on with having your custody at a centralized exchange is solvency risk, right? And so it’s like, if you think that there’s going to be a run on the bank, then for sure, take your money off of Coinbase. That’s, this is what we saw happen with FTX, right? FTX, everything was fine until it wasn’t once there was a run on the bank, you know, some people were, you know, the earlier you got your money out, the safer you were.

8:15And I specifically remember when FTX was happening, you know, I had all of my stuff on my personal wallets and stuff like that. And I was like, all right, well, I don’t have solvency risk in the sense that I think I have some money there that all of a sudden disappears. But there is obviously price risk, because in that situation, right, like people are liquidating crypto in order to raise cash, especially if you’re losing some money that you thought you weren’t going to lose, and this and that. So there was it was definitely like price volatility risk. But I think like generally, and especially like at the beginning of a bull market, I don’t, I don’t think there’s much solvency risk from a centralized entity or an exchange. But you know, maybe when we get closer towards the top of the market, right, as we see is like people are taking on excessive risk, and then there’s a drawdown and people are levered and this and that. That’s where like that exists more. But yeah, I just thought that was interesting, because that was around the time of this Justin Drake tweet and stuff like that. But yeah, if you actually dove into it last night, and actually over the last 48 hours, you would notice that the US government has moved insane

9:28amounts of BTC, ETH, USDC. We’ve seen other ancient wallets that have not moved money in eight years, 10 years, waking up and moving hundreds of millions of dollars. And so this is a very, it is clear that this has made its way through the technology community, the crypto community, as well as at the highest levels of government. And so it’s being taken seriously, because I think look, if the risk is a non zero, you have to take it seriously with those types of money, especially when you were probably high on the list of top, you know, 50 people to probably get, you know, your money taken. But, you know, again, I do think that there are solutions here.

10:15And, you know, if something does happen, we’re probably looking at like a chain rollback chain four type scenario to reassemble it. It’s funny you say that, because I was thinking about it last night, I’m like, this is probably bullish for Solana, right? Like as a joke, right? It’s kind of like, because well, who can stop the chain, right? Like who isn’t centralized enough that they can stop the chain. And I was just like, Ah, it was probably bullish.

10:41It’s so funny. You say that like, well, again, not funny at all. So like, horribly have been dealing with impersonators scamming people on telegram and Twitter.

10:52By the way, I feel like I was one of the first on the first.

10:58Thankfully, I wasn’t a victim. But I remember I like I like fell for it hook line and sinker for maybe like 15 minutes until I figured out it wasn’t. Yeah. And I think like most notably here, I I found myself being like the block like I was like the blocking sucks, because I who do I go to like I can’t I cannot do this. I can’t call up, you know, the head of blockchain and be like, yo, undo this is a scam. But also, I guess like, like just to pray devil’s advocate, of course, like everybody’s like, oh, cryptos at risk. But so is like, so is everything else, right?

11:37Like that’s the so it’s like, yeah, you could like, like, okay, let’s say you you get access to quantum tech, right? What do you go after first? So I understand going after crypto because it’s non like reversible, unless there is a fork, at which point I do think like, if there was a massive hack, right? And like, I think people I think there would be social consensus around rolling it back to pre that hack, and just forking it, I think there probably there would be a conversation around that. But also, it’s like, if you can break all these cryptographic proofs, then like you could also just like, hack that like it would, if you’re a bad actor. And again, it depends what your intents are, because like, I don’t necessarily think your intent would be to make maximize to maximize money, because that money would kind of be effectively worthless, you’d be doing it to affect about effectively maximize chaos, right? So you’re probably trying to be a bad actor, whether it’s like, a North Korea or Iran or whatever, trying to like, bring down the Western financial system. And I think like, what would be what would cause more chaos is bringing down electric grids, financial institutions, right? Banks and causing chaos that

12:53way, because that would bring up all those. But here’s the crazy thing. Every single thing you just said, there’s intertwined now because of blockchain financials now based on electricity, which is all in the blockchain. And they’re not significantly on the blockchain yet, right?

13:08Like, it’s weird that we’re moving that direction where like, yeah, all three of us are pegged together.

13:15I wouldn’t say they’re pegged together just yet, right? Like, we’re at the baby steps of that.

13:20We’re literally at the beginning of that. If you wanted to cause mass chaos today, right? I don’t think blockchain is even on your radar, right? Like, I think before that, you would go after the electric grid, and you would go after financial financial institutions, because that would like if if J.P. Morgan Chase got hacked today, like they’re the biggest bank in the world, like that would cause mass chaos everywhere on the planet, instantly. So it’s almost like the most bang for your buck. I you know, yeah, maybe crypto like a lot of people would be upset, you know, if if they got hacked, and they lost their funds. But I don’t think that would be, again, thinking about it from if you’re operating on that scale, like what’s a billion dollars, five billion dollars, like, you know, I mean, like, it’s like, it’s probably going to be rolled back anyway, you’re probably trying to do it to cause mass chaos. And if that’s the case, then like, there’s there’s higher leverage pain points to hit before you hit crypto. That’s kind of like my thoughts on it. I don’t know, I think they want my quote round. So I probably where they’re going first. That like I said the other day, that was like the first thing I thought of when

14:30that metamask news came out. I’m like, ah, fuck, I’m like, what am I gonna do about my coat? So somewhere in North Korea, there’s a poster on the wall. This is wanted. Speaking of which, I was at dinner last night with someone who was telling me side note, next time I go to Korea or next time you go to Korea to check out the demilitarized zone, the DMZ that’s at the corner at the at the border of North Korea and South Korea, and how it’s like, just like a crazy humbling experience to kind of go and check it out. So the next time I’m in Korea, I’m going to make it a point to go probably spend a half a day or a day up there. But yeah, sorry, back to regularly scheduled programming, full for travel advisory.

15:16The best the best topics of this show. Yeah, exactly. But yeah, look, I look, rewind here into things. I think the entire freak out right now overplayed as you’ve seen the ticker come across the the show for our video viewers. Pretty clear, the markets read. I personally am nibbling on stuff. People keep joking that like, we’re going to repeat 1010.

15:45Well, I’ve you got to be responsible and dollar cost average at anything. I’m not like shoving here. But I’m just buying weakness. I know people are like, this is like, just I feel like human superstition, right? Also, October is traditionally like a terrible month for financial markets in general liquid markets as people mess around with that. Yeah, I mean, again, I just don’t be too over levered. I personally, I personally think that the bottom is in but that doesn’t mean we can’t retrace and like have a decent pullback in terms of like where the market goes, right? Like, we could very well pull back to like the mid 70s, right? 75 k 74, right? And still be like structurally like strong. You know what I mean? And as long as we hold that bottom, like it seems like we we do pretty well long term. But yeah, you don’t need to be a hero, right? If you’re if you’re trading on leverage, just like realize you’re trading on leverage, you don’t need to be a hero. And there will be spots where you can take on significant leverage and take on risk where you know, your risk reward is really good. And, you know, in times of uncertainty, it’s okay, right? Like, I think we kind of always talk about that in terms of

17:05trading on the show is like, you don’t need to catch every single trade and you don’t need to catch every not every trade is equal, right? So there’s some trades where you’re like, I feel really confident in this, I’m willing to risk more and other ones where it’s like, okay, like I want to take on the trade. It’s not the perfect setup, but like, I want some action, right? And and that’s fine. Yeah, the hero mentality, and like, urge has, has ruined many men. I saw a great post, Dee’s re retweeted it about one of these guys, one of our OG friends, getting back into like the trading space and being like, look, it’s hyper overstimulated, nobody’s holding everybody’s just trying to make, you know, $10,000 in five minutes. And everybody is trying to hit that hero trade. And that is not a sustainable way to trade.

17:56I will note, we I analyzed about 3000 wallets last night, I, you know, the data side of the blockchain has become one of much interest, as loot has dove really deep into the data space with index. All of those 3000 wallets that we analyze, the most profitable wallets, and these are randomly sampled over the course of like an hour of like traders that are active today, that were active 60 days ago, the most profitable wallets are ones that do not buy and that aren’t basically dev sniping or dev launching. The most profitable wallets are the ones that are holding longer, buying more mature assets, and are not trying to time anything, it’s all dollar cost in, dollar cost out. And so what is being basically projected on the timeline day after day, is the worst advice you could get, but they just happen to be the most popular people.

19:02And I could go on a long rant about why that is. Unfortunately, it is kind of a jab at some of the larger incumbents in this space who are pushing this narrative, because they want more volume.

19:15And they want the illusion of, you know, this being a game that anybody can do, you just got to get in early enough and sell high enough like that. It’s unfortunate that we are there. It’s almost I feel like there’s a lot of commonalities with, you know, course sellers, ecom, like, I will show you how to do this. And you know, you set this up once.

19:39And it’s like, there’s just a lot more work that goes into all this stuff.

19:43When are you dropping your course? I’m curious.

19:46Yeah, dude, I mean, I did, right? Like, I’ll give you the promo code at the end, at the end of the show for anybody that wants to do it. But yeah, no, it’s code gmoney on fullport.com now. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. So yeah, no, listen, I think like, I’ve been there. It’s funny, because I that reminds me a little bit of, you know, when I was running a trading desk, and sometimes like, you know, we get like some really smart people come come through the desk, and they’d be like, Oh, well, I like, you know, Warren Buffett style, buy and hold value investing. I’m like, Yeah, me too, man. And if I had $5 billion, that’s exactly what I would be doing. But I don’t. And so I need to, I need to kind of try to build my stack and the bet, you know, the fastest way to build anything, right, is to utilize leverage, right? So it works both on the upside, but also on the downside. So I think when when you do trade these types of things, and I think we kind of see that in, you know, the short term FOMO style trading, where, you know, people are like, holding for the catalyst, trying to kind of force the catalyst and then sell into the catalyst that they help create, and then the thing goes to zero. And I think we see that time and time again, I think

21:04it’s very frustrating. It’s not sustainable, because it’s just basically a faster game of musical chairs.

21:12And yeah. Yeah. On the point of Warren Buffett, though, I do think we should revisit our commentary on was it Lenar from last stream here. I still think this is a great identification by you of ZEEM and other ZAG. We’ve seen a lot of people, you know, making commentary about what’s going to happen with rates. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway coming out and basically saying, hey, we’re going to make a large purchase into a stock that should go up as rates go down. Could this be the bottom? Look, I still like this. I don’t think it plays out like this week, or even this month. But I do think you look back in, say, six months, and this is up near 100 as rates change. So I do want to highlight that. I think it’s already a portfolio company of theirs. So they’ve been long for a while. But I think what I thought was interesting was that they were adding to the position here. And so I think this kind of goes to what we were also talking about last episode of Rocket Mortgages, RKT. Or I mean, it’s just I think it’s more of a rocket companies, I think they’re more diversified. And like, that’s probably just more of a leverage bet than Lenar would be. But in general, homebuilders in general are they’re a leverage bet on

22:45rates, right? And you can see that the Home Builders Index is near lows as rates are near highs. But honestly, like this, this has held up better than I thought it would have, comparatively speaking. So yeah, there’s just something to keep an eye on. If and when rates truly are going to start coming down, I think we’re going to start seeing very strong bounces in Home Builders, right? I mean, this is like, I think this is a very broad trade, right? Because if rates are coming down, then, you know, commodities are pumping, crypto is pumping, Home Builders are pumping, these are all like different expressions of the same trade of, you know, shorting rates. I will keep my eye on it. Again, I still think, even if you’re not, like, if you’re watching this, like, I don’t care about Home Builders, I just want to go trade, I want to go know like what to trade and what’s hot.

23:45You should know this, as we especially move closer to tradfi in crypto, it’ll be something you need to understand, and it’ll probably help you make money in the longer term.

23:55So covering this, making sure everybody is aware financially literate, and making sure you know how to trade every asset class that is out there as a, you know, as it could be Pokemon cards, it could be Home Builders, it could be compute credits, who knows? Man, like, so many different markets have come out at this point. Gotcha, the Gotcha market has, I think, driven the collectibles market more than I care to credit it for. And I don’t see it slowing down. And it’s very interesting. I talked to a few people that are launching collectibles companies, even if they aren’t fully Gotcha. It is, it is a sector that is blowing up on the private side. And, you know, I think we’ll have some $100 million back to companies have raised $100 million entering into the crypto or tokenized sphere here in the next six months that are really going to change how people view moving money, whether that is physical gold, bullion, or Pokemon cards, obviously art. But I think even as you start to get into like, seeing some stuff on like fractionalize home stuff starting to like come up again, gets very weird. It’s like very, very spooky as you start to realize, okay, all this is an actual reality, like you have Coinbase

25:24in the same in the same seven day span, announced that they are bringing Pokemon cards, tokenized and on chain to their their service that deals with billions of dollars institutions, millions of retail customers, as well as seven days later, then being like we’re doing a trading competition in Singapore. And we’re going to, you know, basically have a like ESPN level hype, you know, athlete show of people trading walkouts, etc. And so you have this weird disposition of the winners in this space are not only going to have to have as many assets and be open to having whatever you want to trade be traded. But the winner will ultimately have to be trustworthy as you have people moving to stocks, and even borrowing like I thought about this morning, Coinbase is likely in a better position than many others, because they are able to do this bargain against stocks and other assets that they’re rolling out. And I would trust them doing that, because they’re a large institution that’s been around versus a no name. And I could get into this a whole rant between why I think that’s like kind of any of the big centralized exchanges, right? Like, people trust Binance, Kraken, OKX, right? Like, like, these are

26:39sure these guys, you know, I there’s obviously like tiers, right, in terms of centralized exchanges. And they’re all going out there. You know, what these emerging markets where they see kind of like the same pie, right? And growing from there. So yeah, I mean, I tend to agree with you, right? I think that like you want, I mean, trust as a brand is very, very valuable. Right.

27:01So I think this is what’s interesting is that Solana is at a disadvantage here. If you were to look at I know in the meme stocks side, which is probably not the greatest thing to look at.

27:14From the meme stock side, where there’s volume, Robinhood leads about two to one over Solana, who’s in second base is like, they probably own three to five percent of the meme stock volume side. Those three. You think is that high? Like, because I was looking at like, AUM, I think this morning, base has like, almost no, like, AUM in terms of stocks issued on chain.

27:43This is okay. Yes. The analysis here is on meme stocks. Unfortunately, I did not get this graphic pulled in. I’ll throw it on the screen for you to see here.

27:58We’re doing it. We’re doing it live. But this is meme stocks, right? Like, this is not actual stocks, but I think they’re pretty closely correlated here.

28:10So Solana, Robinhood are by far the winners. But where it gets really interesting is that Robinhood and Coinbase, they’re obviously financial institutions and have distribution with like, customers signed up. Solana is at the disadvantage of they don’t have that. So they have to rely on partnerships, etc., which I think brings up a very interesting dynamic of like, will it be an advantage or disadvantage in the long run of whether, you know, based on which chain you’re using or which token you’re buying to try to make the most upside here for that distribution. Though only one though, in this conversation that is interesting, like, truly, truly interesting to me, will be Kraken, because they’re the only one that has all the tech has to a degree, all the distribution of everybody else. And they’re the only ones of the aforementioned here that will have a token for their chain. And so that, that to me is just like the sleeping giant of the bunch at this point. Well, to your point, like Solana obviously has a token, but you’re you’re talking about like, they have a token coming, right? That will there’s the like mass upside. Yeah. And so, but like I will say, I think the interesting thing about Kraken is that it seems like that they’re setting up kind of like, you know, and I,

29:41and I feel like they’ve spoken about this, that they want to kind of be like, infrastructure as a service for, you know, for financial services, right? And to kind of like, help be that for everyone. And it doesn’t matter necessarily your chain, right? And I think you kind of see that with xStocks, right? I think in terms of volume, in terms of tokenized stock volume on Solana, it’s between backpack and xStocks, right? And so the fact that xStocks is on Solana, I think kind of tells you how, you know, Kraken has been viewing just like the space in general, right? And I think kind of going back to what we were talking about earlier this week, where you, I think everybody is viewing it as stablecoins all over again, right? And the reason why USDT and USDC worked and why they’re like, even off the top of my head, I couldn’t even tell you what the number three stablecoin is in terms of volume, maybe like the Tron stablecoin. I don’t even know what it is because I never, I have also the graphic for this made this morning. I just, again, we’re running a little technical difficulties here. But yeah, no, it is the top three here. And this graphic was built purely because of the Samsung announcement with Solana USDC coming to all phones.

31:04USDC on Solana is by far the winner. USDT number two, and then USD1 number three.

31:11So the difference in volume is staggering though. USDC on Solana doing over $750 million in 24 hours.

31:21USDT doing $90 million and USD1 doing $8 million. So what’s 100x gap between one and three?

31:31Okay, but USDT is only at, what’d you say it was? $9 million? That’s for Solana, right?

31:38If it’s on Solana. Right. Because I feel like on a global basis, I thought that USDT did more volume than USDC. Sure. And this is maybe too niche down. USDT, I believe, on the EVM side is absolutely putting on a masterclass compared to everyone else. Right. Yeah. But yeah, I mean, I just think that like, you see this, this is where I think tokenized equities will be. And I think more and more stuff will come on chain. Like again, this is my bull case for Co-tron’s is that if that’s the bet, I think Co-tron’s is one of the more asymmetric bets that you can make on it in terms of valuation wise for that upside, if it happens. Right. So yeah, but dude, I do think that everybody realizes this. I was actually looking at a dashboard this morning. I can’t find it if not to be sharing it, but you know, on those number one, xStocks is number two. This is in terms of AUM.

32:38On those number one, xStocks number two, and Binance tokenized equities. I think they’re called B stocks is number three. And that’s dude, that’s Binance being Binance. Right. I think that’s one of the things that has made CZ so successful is when he sees an opportunity, they will really throw their weight behind it. And I think they understand that with everything that they saw with the stable coin space and everything that happened with USDT, I mean, like, hey, like we have to we have to win this. Right. And I think everybody understands that. Everybody understands it at this point. My question is, I’m like, I don’t think I have an answer.

33:18Nor am I going to go fishing for an answer, you know, just come up with one to have a take on the show. But what does that feel next? Is it like, where, where should you be moving? We know the puck is headed towards tokenized equities being all on chain. What is the next best move as either a builder or as a trader to get the upside? And I know even our audience isn’t all even, even traders or builders, we have managers, we have people in Wall Street, we have people like to that point, right, I think some interesting stuff, right, is like, all right, how like, I actually just read something, I think 10 minutes before we came on the show of how the prime brokerage units of a lot of the Wall Street banks are some of the most biggest revenue generating sections, portions of these banks right now. And so the interesting thing about prime brokerage, prime brokerage is all back office stuff, right? Prime brokerage is like, hey, you want to borrow this stock to short it, you know, we charge you this mount, and then you clear all your trades through us this and that they it basically provides all the support you need as a fund to kind of run it, right? So it’s like, if I have like gmoney capital,

34:29I can prime brokerage at Goldman, you need, you know, about I think $100 million worth of AUM, in order to just entertain the combo. And even then, I think you’d be considered small.

34:41But then what what Goldman does is they’ll custody all your assets. And I have my capital there. And you know, whether I buy or sell a stock, it clears through them, they hold on to it, they charge some, they make some money off of whether it’s charging fees on interest, or, you know, when I borrow something to short it, they make money off that. So I think what we’re going to start seeing is a lot of these back office units start coming on chain. And, you know, this is again, like everything that we thought was interesting. One of the one of the things we thought was interesting about crypto, specifically, like, you know, starting in with DeFi summer is that you can see like, real time, like what risk is, right? Because like, I think all the things that led to 2008, and whenever there’s these questions around marks, and you know, who solved it and stuff like that, you don’t know what’s on the books, right? And so that that’s really kind of like what causes a lot of these issues. And bringing stuff on chain is, you know, you can see these stuff, these things on chain. And, you know, maybe you’re like, oh, well, like, we don’t need to mark this to this number. But I’m like, hey, like, I know that that’s

35:50like, way off mark, right? Like, and so like, I know, whatever, whether I short your stock because of it, or I take the other side of that position and, and kind of force you to be a seller or whatever. And I think these types of things kind of lead to more transparency and more honesty on chain. But I think what we’re going to start seeing is more and more of these business units, maybe not all at once, but start to come on chain and like generate that yield on chain.

36:20Does this mean that the winners of DeFi 2.0 will be the current comments of DeFi 1.0? Like, is does Aave come out of this as the ultimate winner where people want to build on chain?

36:33I actually was talking to somebody yesterday and they just sent me a couple, a couple projects that are building kind of like almost, I think like stock loan type pools on chain and they’re all built on top of Aave, right? So I mean, like we were talking about it last week.

36:49You could take the comparable.

36:52Literally, you could take the comparable uni swap where all the swaps will have to happen on chain. Luneutas Central’s exchange. Great. That is uni swap. But on the borrowing yield side, it’s not uni swap. Who was it originally? I love this take. I love this take. I think Aave could be possibly one of the sleeping giants of this move forward.

37:16I mean, I definitely think like we’re not alone in this, right? Like Aave’s up almost 3x off alone.

37:22We are certainly not the first ones to come up with this take, but it’s still a good take.

37:27But yeah, I agree. And like, listen, uni swap. Well, wrong, wrong chart.

37:37Damn. Okay. Well, there we go. There we go. There we go. All right. So uni’s had a run.

37:45Pull back. I mean, this might be interesting and interesting by around here.

37:49But yeah, I mean, I just think this got overextended, right? To two degree. And I think I got overextended when every single thread you looked at and the buzzword of the fucking cycle became hook. V4 hook, V4 hook, hook this, hook that. Oh, I’m going to bridge hooks.

38:11You can tell it was overplayed to an extent. Still a great product. I think it’s here to stay, but I got a little frothy there. I haven’t heard the word Aave mentioned in some time, though. That hasn’t made its way to KOL Twitter. So the broccoli-haired kids of the broccoli-haired traders. It’s strong. Yeah. I mean, look, it’s been holding pretty strong.

38:37I think, again, those are the two top of mine that I think could be big winners in a medal like this. And also, you know that they’ve been chatting with regulators. Yeah.

38:49Yeah. I mean, I don’t curve. I mean, I don’t know because like curve was really, from my understanding, curve was very focused on stablecoins, right? And it was like stablecoin liquidity. But I don’t know. Like, I don’t know what’s been going on there, to be perfectly honest. CRX, no? Or? No. Curve is CRV.

39:10And then I think there’s like convex, which is. Convex. Maybe with the big C2 output.

39:14Look, I think you got to go back to, and I will break it out because I have all the notebooks from 2017 to 21 because I kept a daily journal, basically, of all my trades, what I was seeing, my hypothesis, how it played out. I should start doing that again. But I have all the old tickers.

39:35And I think that probably worth going back and looking at, like, all right, what was I looking at? What did I think was going to work? Who survived? And I think ultimately, a lot of the ideas we saw fail back in the 27 to 21 cycle, there are definitely a handful of areas there that were just too early. Great ideas would do amazing data if launched, and they’re just a little too early.

40:01It’s I think, you got to be doing some archaeology on DeFi 1.0 this week. In coming weeks, you understand where to move. I mean, this is what I think we’ve been talking about this for the last couple of months is this is what I found the most interesting about the tokenized equity meta is that the biggest problem with DeFi summer from 2020 was that you were trading tokens that were either worthless or massively overvalued, right? Because it was like, Oh, look at like the TAM, right? Like, I mean, Aave, great idea. It definitely got ahead of itself in terms of valuation, right? And if we go back, let’s see. Yeah, $8 billion market cap at the highs. And right now, we’re like 2.5 billion, right? Five years later, six years later, right? And so, will it get there? Hopefully, right? As long as they increase AUM and they keep on, it’s like the slow methodical build, right? It’s like typical tradify. And so, I think the interesting thing about all of this that’s been happening with tokenized equities is that now you can apply these same concepts to products that have inherent value, right? And it’s not like the biggest problem with like, when Aave launched, you’re like, all right, cool. This is a great

41:24concept, but like it’s not going to play out overnight, right? Like all of all the finances incoming isn’t coming on chain within the next 12 months, right? And it’s going to be within the next 10 to 20 years. And yeah, it’s a secular long-term winner, for sure. And I think like tokenized equities is kind of leading to that. But you know, it just takes time, right? Like these large deals bringing massive amounts of assets on chain just takes time. You need to get the infrastructure right. I feel like there’s a lot of things that, you know, we’ve been gearing towards. And I think for the first time, the headline that I read last week along the lines of US Treasury buying has been absorbing a lot of the selling from foreign investors. And that buying has been coming from like crypto stablecoins, right? And so I think that the government and we know this, this is what Besant has said, basically, since he’s been a Treasury Secretary, is that crypto will become a big part of like the Treasury issuance, like circle, right? And it’s like the reason for that is because if the if foreign governments are net sellers of Treasuries, you need to find some buyer, right? And that buyer could and the goal is to kind of keep, you know, the US dollar as

42:45as a reserve currency asset. It’s like if people are buying dollars in crypto in order to do that, because like, I think tether is like the biggest buyer of US Treasuries in the world right now.

42:56Right. And so by far, by far, you know, and so those types of things just tell me that crypto and this is like, it got me rethinking is like, I know we we’ve been talking about how crypto is a very partisan issue right now. But I do think at some point, like, let’s say the Dems come into power in 2020, they win the presidency, whoever is president, then unless they’re like a massive socialist, that is going to like, you know, reverse all these things that that have been happening in terms of crypto in the last couple of years, I think they’re going to realize that I’m like, yeah, if we like want to stay in power, we kind of have to keep this flywheel going.

43:35Because and crypto, we need to like elevate crypto within our ecosystem, because it’s going to help feed US dominance in terms of reserve currency, right? And so these are like long term plays like that. I just, I was reading that I’m like, all right, this is very interesting, because, you know, we know they spoke about it, initially, but now to start seeing it actually in action as, you know, a lot of central banks are selling their dollars. And, you know, we actually have some demand that’s offsetting it. And like, now it’s like in practice, right? Yeah.

44:11Fascinating way that the geopolitical events, the world events are, again, so intertwined in what we’re doing. Years ago, Visa buying a crypto punk was enough to send the entire industry rambling today, it is a normal see to see a lot of our rails being used by some of the largest entities in governments in the world. I would love to chat on maybe on the political side here, as I saw just take across WTI oil up $92. It seems like there’s some ruffled feathers between the Trump administration, which is Trump himself and Iran once again.

44:53You know, regardless of what best it does, etc. We still have this looming issue that is the non settled Iran conflict. What’s your take right now where we stand?

45:05So I was reading a couple of headlines on it this morning. I thought it was kind of weird, because it was saying how Trump wants to strike before midterms. And he wants like the Pentagon is preparing to strike on Iran again, pretty soon. And I it just it just doesn’t make sense compared to like, I feel like everything that we’ve heard up until this point, right of like, it’s almost like we’re at a stalemate. I don’t think like if the US were to strike Iran, unless you have like, a like a lot of certainty that this is going to end the war, it just doesn’t make sense. Because then Iran is just going to strike back at some refineries in the area. And that’ll send up the price of oil even more. So I don’t know, maybe it’s just again, like with all this stuff, especially with politics and geo geopolitics, and the Middle East and oil, I think there’s just so many different factions that are trying to like false flag things and like, maybe push the president or lawmakers into doing the things that they want. It’s almost like maybe something like this gets leaked, to try to kind of force an escalation. And I don’t know, it’s just weird. Like I mean, obviously, oil is up today. But I kind of take it with a

46:19grain of salt in the sense that I almost feel like if Trump were to escalate the war right now, with less than 30 days into the midterms, it’s almost like political suicide, in terms of like, making yourself a lame duck president for the next two years. And so I don’t know if he would want to risk that right? Like if even if he let’s say he was on the table, I feel like the smart thing to do would be to wait until after the midterms. But what do I know?

46:51I have no idea at this point. I think it’s one of those things that where you know, he is watching and he understands the game he’s playing, because we’ve seen it with the stock market. And he understands the election, how important it is. So any decision I feel like he makes is going to be based around like midterm, you know, how it reflects and how it’s so.

47:14So one thing this is like, not exactly related. Well, it’s like somewhat related. I read this tweet this morning, from just another pod guy, where he was kind of talking about the explanations for why Polymarket and Kalshi are so far off the mark. And he gives three reasons. One is users are younger. And so they’re betting along ideologies. All right, that kind of makes sense.

47:38Two is that Democrats are using it as cheap marketing mechanism to drive lower Republican turnout. I don’t know if that necessarily makes all that much sense to me, because like, why wouldn’t Republicans be doing the same thing, if that was the case? And then number three, which I thought was interesting, I hadn’t thought of is that the Trump admin is manipulating and this isn’t specifically towards prediction markets, but like maybe he’s just trying to keep China, Iran and the Europeans kind of like thinking like, okay, we only have to deal with this guy for another month. And then he’s a lame duck president.

48:16And like really, he’s just like, who knows, maybe in like two weeks, he’s like, all right, peace deal with Iran. And then all of a sudden people are like, oh, all right, cool. The number one thing people dislike about what he’s been doing is now like off the table, right. And so again, I think with a lot of these geopolitical events, there’s just so much that’s happening behind the scenes that we don’t know, that all we can do is like kind of like analyze with the information that we have. But I think it’s really tough to make like long term financial decisions based off of it, right. So it’s like, again, headline today, we’re getting ready to strike Iran. We know that the president tacos on pretty much every, every important issue out there, he could come out and be like, oh, we resolved it, right. And it could also be something as simple as like, oh, if we if they think that we’re going to attack, maybe that brings them to the table. Because maybe they have some intelligence that Intel out there that we don’t know, right? That’s like, oh, they’re vulnerable.

49:13They certainly do. Right. Yeah. Yeah. Well, we’ll know we’ll know as this plays out. That’s the good news. I think, oh, man, it’s it’s such a like black mirror way of like being what is going on at the highest levels of the government right now.

49:34Yeah, that is crazy. I did. I really want to flag real quick that as we started the show, 42 minutes ago, the US government moved another additional to what I had said. They moved another billion dollars of Bitcoin 12,200 BTC. I believe this brings a total to like, three or $4 billion of assets the government has moved in the last 24 hours alone.

50:01That are crypto that have not been moved before. Like this is this is I want to be clear. This is not all keep this up. This is not normal behavior. We’ve never seen this much capital on chain be moved by the US government. And it is is certainly to my opening point on the show about, you know, am I concerned? There’s clearly still validity here, right? Like, I also I also want to like very clear that all of these labs have a one to one relationship with the US government at this point, right? Like, the US government knows what is the like the latest and greatest research that’s coming out. I am I’m positive that the US government is forcing the labs that are US based to hold back research. This seems to be one of the ones that they the labs have been allowed to publish. But again, all the crypto, the cryptographic proofs are missing. So again, there’s there’s valid stuff happening here. I just don’t think for you most people it is like freak out move move stuff. But there’s where you’re freaking me out right now. I’ll tell you that much.

51:13I’m like, man, should I be moving all my stuff out? Like, what are you going to do? Like, you move it to a new address. And I would say here, they’re probably take is that if you’ve done transactions, if you’ve moved it, there is there’s a pattern in there there is you can actually back engineer off of more transactions to break that seed. I’m sure there’s something something like that in there when this all comes out. However, if that happens, the entire like the entire space is just it’s cooked. So it’s kind of like a dude if you want. But well, if it’s like, okay, but isn’t the the advice is to come back to the top of the show, I guess, come full circle. But the advice has been to move your assets to a new wallet that’s never transacted on chain because the the public hash key hasn’t been displayed. Right. And so then, correct. Maybe that add like the thought processes that adds like some extra layer of protection that you wouldn’t have with anything that’s transacted on chain, right?

52:22Yeah, I mean, public hash key would be yeah, this goes this would be the US government true surely thinks north like this is this has North Korea slash, you know, other other governments clearly are within striking distance of figuring this out that I think that’s the level we’re at right now, or China, like, I think, I think we also even do a callback to when we started the show. What was that like October, November of last year, when you and I sat down and had that fantastic burger dinner, New York, we we talked about how if this AI compute, and all these labs are a national defense level, and we are neck and neck with China. And I believe we’re probably ahead of China at this point to a degree. And the US knows, okay, we figured this out today. China is only four weeks behind us six weeks, but I that is that’s the reality of the race right now. Right? Maybe Yeah, okay. I mean, I’m a little bit more concerned than I was at the beginning of the show. Did we just talk ourselves into moving all of our assets to you while that’s the real question? Hey, tax write off, baby. Um, but yeah, no, I listen, I agree. I think more stuff will be coming out over the next couple days and weeks. But again, I do think that because it’s all relative, right? So even

53:54though you say that, you know, the smaller the amounts you have on chain, the less like you are to be targeted, but it’s all it’s all relative, right? Because like, no matter how much money you lose, it’s going to be like, unless it’s like an insignificant amount, you’re like, Oh, well, like, I wish I didn’t lose that, right? Because you were you counted on it, right? Like, exactly. Thought it was yours. So but yeah, um, I guess, like, that’s kind of I feel like that was kind of all we got for the show today. Yeah, I’m not sure if we want to touch on Grok or any of the AI trade at all. I started using rock, as you mentioned your use it quite significantly into your workflow. I’m amazed by it. I love it. If you haven’t used it yet. Highly recommend it has been, I mean, really a significant uptake in product activity on my end of things. I will say that, like, I’ve been utilizing Grok as like my overall assistant workflows. And I’ve been doing that for a while. And then I started like refactoring some of the stuff that I’ve done, like, that was more technical, starting like yesterday, with opus 5.5. And it’s been like, incredibly good, and awesome to work with. And I think also, you know, credit to both chat, chibi T and to Claude in the sense that you can now

55:16create remote working sessions. So before stuff that I would have to do from the command line prompt, and be in front of my computer in order to really do I’m now doing it from my mobile app, on the phone on the go, and I’m able to kind of like get feedback and this and that. I don’t know how good the output is yet, but it does seem like it’s catching things that I wasn’t aware of. And so we’ll see. But like, I just think like, these things are becoming better and better, they’re only going to get better from here. And I think we’re just like very compute constrained. And I think it’s funny, because I think we’re at a point right now, when you look at like, the equity valuations, where I think investors still don’t necessarily believe that, you know, there’s maybe a next leg up that is coming. And I think a lot of it is people are a little concerned about anthropic and the IPO that should be coming within, again, the next before the end of the year. And that’s probably weighing on on sentiment a little bit, Samsung reported numbers last night, the numbers were good, it sold off, you know, Samsung competitor to Micron, who reported last week, Micron is what is that? It’s higher than going into numbers,

56:32or I think it might be it’s about flat, since it reported. No, pull it up on the screen. Yeah, yeah, pulling it up right now. And, but yeah, like, to me, it’s like, again, I just think that it’s probably kind of like a show me story. It seems like at this point, ages, this is kind of what I brought up last week is like, the numbers are really good, but the stock isn’t reacting exactly as I would expect it to. So it’s just like something to flag. I’m still bullish, but like, I am noticing that all right, good news is coming out. We’re not like rerating higher.

57:12You know, maybe, you know, the market, the market’s always a forward looking mechanism. So maybe it’s just like something, something to flag and just to look at. So keep it on the radar. I I’m getting text messages about this security stuff. Not making me feel better. Not gonna lie.

57:36Some of the cryptographers that I talked to last night, adding some commentary, saying that I’m downplaying to a level of like, it is more real, like it’s very real.

57:50It’s more a level of like, the question is like, when does it happen? And who does it affect?

57:57So now it’s really kind of like, when’s the timeline? I will say, man, fantastic show. I enjoyed I enjoyed going over everything. And I believe we’ll be back with some significant news as we have some key dates ahead. Next week, we’ll be looking for that from I think there’s some Fed numbers next week that we’re looking for. As well as another fantastic weekend with token 49 wrapping up all our announcements of that are done. And we’ll have some more show improvements next week as well. We’ll be back 1030am next Tuesday here on x make sure you’re following across all the socials. We’ll see you next week. Thanks for tuning in everybody. And we appreciate as always. Cheers.