Quantum Scare, Trump vs Iran, and Who Wins Tokenized Stocks!

0:00What is up, everybody? Good morning, and welcome back to another episode of Full Port. I’m Hunter Orrell. We’re joined with my co-host, one of my favorite people in the world, one of the best traders in the world, gmoney.

0:12I gotta hype you up. It’s a good Thursday. I’m feeling it. It’s good, man. We’re surviving what seems to be math Armageddon right now, as it seems as cryptography has been solved.

0:30By OpenAI. I’ve got a huge take there on what I think is going on and whether it’s a big deal or not. But everybody’s concerned about their tokens and their coins.

0:41I’m comfy just typing away in Claude, and I’m going to pray the nerds figure it out.

0:49Let’s start there, because I know as we were going through the run of the show, I actually am surprised we didn’t talk about that.

0:55But basically, Justin Drake put out, and I think this is kind of what led to a little bit of the weakness in the last 24 hours in crypto specifically.

1:07But I do think it’s a combination of also rates or – the market, I felt like, got weak literally right after we spoke about rates and the market holding in strong.

1:18I feel like the market got a little weaker Tuesday afternoon and yesterday, and even today, there was a little bit of a gap down.

1:26But I do think the crypto weakness in general came from that Justin Drake tweet, right, where he was talking about – he was basically like, hey, there’s no need to panic.

1:38But you should move all of your crypto to wallets that have never interacted with anything before.

1:47And so I think that kind of led to a little bit of a risk-off environment within crypto.

1:53Although, I mean, I know Bitcoin is broken below the 83K, but I kind of – yeah, I think it’s obviously of something that you should be concerned about and you should always be thinking about, right, this type of quantum risk that people have been talking about now for like a little over a year, maybe two years at this point.

2:17And it seems to be coming to a head a little bit faster than maybe others think, and that’s maybe because of the progression of AI.

2:25So I’d love to hear like your take on it, what you’re thinking, but yeah.

2:30I think the main thing I want people to understand is how this all spawned in because this shouldn’t be a new thing for anybody.

2:40And I think if you also step back, I think about the original days of the internet and a lot of the technology we use today, there has been a similar concern.

2:50Maybe not at the scale of like what a black swan event would look like, but even in 2000, we thought when the clock switched over, the entire world would stop working.

3:01The nice thing about the doom of all this is that there’s equally on the other side a technological innovation that can come out and push this further back.

3:12So as encryption throughout the years has always gotten weaker with the advancement of technologies and compute, we are also seeing the advancement of it becoming stronger.

3:21This all spawned out of open AI posting some math proofs, and essentially there was a very glaring lack of cryptographic information within there.

3:35And this made a lot of people, I think, scratch their heads and say, all right, if they are redacting or if there’s a lack of actual proof in this, they’re not holding back learnings, academia, just because they don’t want, just because, oh, we don’t want to overshare.

3:53They’re doing it for a very implicit reason of like, okay, if we do share this, we actually are revealing something that gives not only an edge to the people that are creating the solutions and able to understand how to push this forward, but also to maybe some of the people with the less savory takes of how to use that, you know, these innovations.

4:14So that is what spawned this conversation. I do think that the take from Justin was a bit early to jump the gun.

4:25What’s the point? Like, I don’t see the point. Like, there’s nothing really anybody can do.

4:30If we do see this, it’s going to be something that we deal at at a much different level.

4:36But I also think, like, my take, and as well as I asked some of the top cryptographers in the world, some of the top people dealing with these systems in the world, essentially, is this correct?

4:49They validated that take. And basically, what came down to was we can always just make it bigger.

4:59Like, we can just make seeds bigger. We can just change, like, because it’s bound by compute, right?

5:05Right. So at the end of the day, like, is this the end of the world? No. Is it something to be concerned about? Sure.

5:11Do I think it is a buy-the-dip opportunity? Unless there is really something that we are not aware of it.

5:18Unless there is, like, a real Black Swan event. Sure. Like, that’s, like, the one in a thousand chance.

5:25I think this is a buy-the-dip opportunity where, again, as you’ll see in the rest of the show, we talk about tokenized equities and why the blockchain is here to stay.

5:33And it will be a technology we use. I think you’ve got to be bullish on the industry you show up to every day.

5:38And this is not the end of it. So it’s overblown. I’m not concerned.

5:43I will say that, you know, if you want to share my screen, last night, Vitalik put out a tweet being like, you know, cause for concern.

5:54Obviously, thinking about it, this is a solution we should go towards, but you don’t need to necessarily go guns blazing just yet.

6:02I think one of the things that – I had read the Justin Drake thing yesterday morning or early yesterday, and then I saw a tweet of somebody said that how Joe Lubin moved, like, $300 million to, like, new wallets.

6:17And that, to me, I was like, oh. I’m like, maybe I should be concerned, right?

6:22And that was, like – that was when I was like, oh, shit. I’m like, maybe there actually is something here.

6:27But again – Well, there is. Like, I want to be clear about that. There certainly is something here.

6:32I’m not saying this is all made up. I think the timeline of when it could be affecting us, the thing for the reality of most people is that your balance is not big enough to worry about this, right?

6:48Like, you don’t got to worry.

6:50But it’s all relative, right? Because what’s big for you could not be big for somebody else and vice versa and all that, right?

6:58So it’s like if I lost, like, some significant portion of my capital in crypto, I’d be pretty sad, right?

7:04And so I think no matter what that number is, it matters on an individual basis.

7:09That, like – there was a conversation, I think it was yesterday or maybe it was the day before, where a buddy of mine who has a bunch of money custody at Coinbase was like, hey, like, you know, tell me about, like, ledger wallets and hardware – or hardware wallets in general.

7:23And I was kind of like, well, I mean, my personal take is that if you’re on Coinbase or one of these centralized exchanges, I feel like you’re pretty safe in terms of, like, obviously hack risk.

7:35I don’t know necessarily all of this, what’s going on with this cryptography stuff.

7:41So I think that, like – that brings, like, an extra layer of risk on there.

7:46But it was pretty funny because I was – not pretty funny, but I was just kind of like, well, you’re basically, like – the risk you really take on with having your custody at a centralized exchange is solvency risk, right?

7:58And so it’s like if you think that there’s going to be a run on the bank, then for sure take your money off of Coinbase.

8:03This is what we saw happen with FTX, right?

8:06FTX, everything was fine until it wasn’t – once there was a run on the bank, you know, some people – where, you know, the earlier you got your money out, the safer you were.

8:15And I especially remember when FTX was happening, you know, I had all of my stuff on my personal wallets and stuff like that.

8:23And I was like, all right, well, I don’t have solvency risk in the sense that I think I have some money there that all of a sudden disappears.

8:32But there is obviously price risk because in that situation, right, like people are liquidating crypto in order to raise cash, especially if you’re losing some money that you thought you weren’t going to lose and this and that.

8:44So it was definitely, like, price volatility risk.

8:47But I think, like, generally – and especially, like, at the beginning of a bull market, I don’t think there’s much solvency risk from a centralized entity or an exchange.

8:56But, you know, maybe when we get closer towards the top of a market, right, as we see is, like, people are taking on excessive risk.

9:03And then there’s a drawdown and people are levered and this and that.

9:07That’s where, like, that exists more. But, yeah, I just thought that was interesting because that was around the time, you know, of this Justin Drake tweet and stuff like that.

9:16But I’m sure – if you actually dove into it last night and actually over the last 48 hours, you would notice that the U.S. government has moved insane amounts of BTC, ETH, USDC.

9:32We’ve seen other ancient wallets that have not moved money in eight years, ten years, waking up and moving hundreds of millions of dollars.

9:42And so this is a very – it is clear that this has made its way through the technology community, the crypto community, as well as at the highest levels of government.

9:53It’s something that’s being taken seriously because I think, look, if the risk is a non-zero, you have to take it seriously with those types of money.

10:01Um, especially when you were probably high on the list of top, you know, 50 people to probably get, you know, your money taken.

10:08Um, but, you know, again, I, I do think that there are solutions here.

10:15Um, and, you know, if something does happen, we’re probably looking at like a chain rollback, chain four type scenario to reestablish.

10:25It’s funny you say that because I was thinking about it last night.

10:28I’m like, this is probably bullish for Solana, right?

10:31Like as a joke, right? It’s kind of like, because, you know, who does, who can stop the chain, right?

10:36Like who isn’t centralized enough, uh, that they can stop the chain?

10:40And I was just like, ah, this is probably bullish for Solana.

10:42It’s so funny you say that like, well, again, not funny at all.

10:45So like horribly have been dealing with, uh, impersonators, scamming people, uh, on Telegram and Twitter.

10:52By the way, I feel like I was one of the first, um, contacting me.

10:57Um, thankfully I wasn’t a victim, but I remember, uh, I like, I like fell for it hook, line, and sinker for maybe like 15 minutes until I figured out it wasn’t.

11:09Yeah. And I think, um, like most notably here, I, I found myself being like the block, like I was like the blockchain sucks because I, who do I go to?

11:19Like, I can’t, I can’t undo this.

11:21I can’t call up, you know, the head of blockchain and be like, yo, undo this is a scam.

11:26Um, but also I guess like, like just to pray devil’s advocate of course, like everybody’s like, oh, cryptos at risk, but so is like, so is everything else, right?

11:37Like that’s the, so it’s like, yeah, you could like, like, okay, let’s say you, you get access to quantum tech, right?

11:44What do you go after first? So I understand going after crypto because it’s non like reversible unless there is a fork at which point I do think like if there was a massive hack, right.

11:56And like, I think people, I think there would be social consensus around rolling it back to pre that hack and just forking it.

12:04I think there probably, there would be a conversation around that, but also it’s like, if you can break all these cryptographic proofs, then like you could also just like hack that.

12:15But like, it would, if you’re a bad actor, and again, it depends what your intents are.

12:20Cause like, I don’t necessarily think your intent would be to make maximize, to maximize money because that money would kind of be effectively worthless.

12:29You’d be doing it to effectively maximize chaos, right?

12:34So you’re probably trying to be a bad actor, whether it’s like a North Korea or Iran or whatever, trying to like bring down the, the Western financial system.

12:43And I think like, what would be, what would cause more chaos is bringing down electric grids, financial institutions, right?

12:52Banks and, and causing chaos that way.

12:54Cause that would bring up all those, but here’s the crazy thing.

12:57Every single thing you just said, there’s intertwined now because of blockchain financial is now based on electricity, which is all in the blockchain.

13:05Yeah, but like, but they’re not significantly on the blockchain yet, right?

13:08Like, it’s weird that we’re moving that direction where like, all three of those are pegged together.

13:14I wouldn’t say they’re pegged together just yet, right?

13:17Like we’re at the baby steps of that.

13:19Yeah, we’re moving them. We’re literally at the beginning of that.

13:22If you wanted to, to cause mass chaos today, right?

13:26I don’t think blockchain’s even on your radar, right?

13:29Like I think before that you would go after the electric grid and you would go after financial, financial institutions because that would like, if, if JPMorgan Chase got hacked today, like they’re the biggest bank in the world.

13:43Like that would cause mass chaos everywhere on the planet instantly.

13:48So it’s almost like the most bang for your buck.

13:51I, you know, yeah, maybe crypto, like a lot of people would be upset, you know, if, if they got hacked and they lost their funds.

13:58But I don’t think that would be, again, thinking about it from, if you’re operating on that scale, like what’s a billion dollars, $5 billion, like, you know what I mean?

14:08Like, it’s like, it’s probably going to be rolled back anyway.

14:10You’re probably trying to do it to cause mass chaos.

14:13And if that’s the case, then like there’s, there’s higher leverage pain points to hit before you hit crypto.

14:19That’s kind of like my thoughts on it.

14:21I don’t know. I think they want my Quotron. So I, it’s probably where they’re going first.

14:27Like I said, the other day, that was like the first thing I thought of when that MetaMask news came out.

14:32I’m like, ah, fuck. I’m like, what am I going to do about my Quotron?

14:35So somewhere in North Korea, there is a poster on the wall.

14:39Oh, this is Quotron’s wanted.

14:42Speaking of which, I was at dinner last night with someone who was telling me, side note, next time I go to Korea or next time you go to Korea, to check out the demilitarized zone, the DMZ.

14:52That’s at the corner, at the, at the border of North Korea and South Korea, and how it’s like, just like a crazy, humbling experience to, to kind of go and check it out.

15:02So the next time I’m in Korea, I’m going to make it a point to go probably spend a half a day or a day up there.

15:09But yeah, sorry.

15:11Back to regularly scheduled programming.

15:12Full port travel advisory.

15:16The best, the best topics on this show.

15:18Yeah, exactly. But yeah, look, I, look, I, to rewind here into things, I think the entire freak out right now overplayed, as you’ve seen the ticker come across the, the show for our video viewers.

15:32Um, pretty clear the, the market’s red.

15:36Um, I personally am nibbling on stuff.

15:40People keep joking that like, we’re going to repeat 10, 10.

15:43Um, well, I, I do got to be responsible and dollar cost average at anything.

15:48I’m not like shoving here, but, um, I’m just buying weakness.

15:53I know people are like, this is like, uh, just, I feel like human superstition, right?

15:57Also October is traditionally like a terrible month for financial markets in general, liquid markets as, as people, um, mess around with that.

16:07Yeah. I, I, I mean, again, I just don’t be too over levered.

16:11I personally, I personally think that the bottom is in, but that doesn’t mean we can’t retrace, um, and like have a, a decent pullback in terms of like where the market goes, right?

16:23Like we could very well, um, pull back to like the mid seventies, right?

16:3075 K 74.

16:33Right. And still be like structurally like strong, you know what I mean?

16:37And as long as we hold that bottom, like, it seems like we, we do pretty well long-term, but, um, yeah, you don’t need to be a hero, right?

16:45If you’re, if you’re trading on leverage, it’s like realize you’re trading on leverage.

16:49You don’t need to be a hero and there will be spots where you can take on significant leverage and take on risk where, you know, your risk reward is really good.

16:59And, you know, in times of uncertainty, it’s okay.

17:01Right. Like, I think we kind of always talk about that in terms of, uh, of trading on the show is like, you don’t need to catch every single trade and you don’t need to catch.

17:10Not every trade is equal. Right. So there’s some trades where you’re like, I feel really confident in this.

17:14I’m going to risk more. And other ones where it’s like, okay, like I want to take on the trade.

17:19It’s not the perfect setup, but like, I want some action.

17:21Right. And, and that’s fine. Yeah. The hero mentality and like urge has, uh, has ruined many men.

17:30I saw a great post D’s retweeted it, um, about one of these guys, one of our OG friends, uh, getting back into like the trading space and being like, look, it’s, it’s hyper overstimulated.

17:42Nobody’s holding. Everybody’s just trying to make, you know, $10,000 in five minutes.

17:48Um, and everybody is trying to hit that hero trade.

17:51And that is not a sustainable way to trade.

17:55Um, I will note, we, I analyzed about 3000 wallets last night.

18:01I, you know, the data side of the blockchain has become, uh, one of much interest as loot has dove really deep into, uh, the, the data space with index.

18:14All of those 3000 wallets that we analyzed, the most profitable wallets, and these, these are randomly sampled over the course of like an hour of like traders that are active today that were active, uh, 60 days ago.

18:29So the most profitable wallets are ones that do not buy, and that aren’t basically dev sniping or dev launching.

18:37The most profitable wallets are the ones that are holding longer, buying more mature assets, and are not trying to time anything.

18:47It’s all dollar cost in and dollar cost out.

18:49Um, and so what is being basically projected on the timeline day after day is the worst advice you could get, but they just happen to be the most popular people.

19:01Um, and I could go on a long rant about why that is.

19:04Uh, unfortunately it is kind of a jab at some of the larger incumbents in this space who are pushing this narrative because they want more volume.

19:14Uh, and they want the illusion of, you know, this being, uh, a game that anybody can do.

19:20You just got to get an early enough and sell high enough.

19:22Like I, it’s unfortunate that we are there.

19:25Yeah. I mean, it’s almost, uh, I feel like there’s a lot of, uh, commonalities with, you know, course sellers, e-com, like I will show you how to do this.

19:38And, you know, you set this up once and it’s like, there’s just a lot more work that goes into all this stuff.

19:42Then when are you dropping your course?

19:44I I’m curious.

19:46Yeah, dude. I, I mean, I did, right. Like I’ll give you the promo code at the end, at the end of this show for anybody that wants to go, but yeah, no, use code G money on fullport.com.

19:55Now. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. So, um, yeah, no, listen, I, I think, uh, Like I’ve been there. It’s funny because that reminds me a little bit of, you know, when I was running a trading desk and sometimes like, you know, we’d get like some really smart people come through the desk and they’d be like, oh, well, I like, you know, Warren Buffett style buy and hold value investing.

20:20I’m like, yeah, me too, man. And if I had $5 billion, that’s exactly what I would be doing, but I don’t. And so I need to, I need to kind of try to build my stack and the best, you know, the fastest way to build anything, right, is to utilize leverage, right?

20:36So it works both on the upside, but also on the downside. So I think when, when you do trade these types of things and I think we kind of see that in, you know, the short term FOMO style trading where, you know, people are like holding for the catalyst, trying to kind of force the catalyst and then sell into the catalyst that they help create.

20:59And then the thing goes to zero. And I think we see that time and time again, I think it’s very frustrating. It’s not sustainable because it’s just basically a faster game of musical chairs. And yeah.

21:15Yeah. On the point of Warren Buffett, though, I do think we should revisit our, our commentary on, what was it? Lenar from last stream here. I still think this is a great identification by you of zigging one other zag. We’ve seen a lot of people, you know, making commentary about what’s going to happen with rates.

21:41Warren Buffett’s one Buffett’s, uh, Brookshire Hathaway coming out and basically saying, Hey, we’re going to make a large purchase, uh, into a stock that should go up as rates go down. Um, could this be the bottom? I look, I, I still like this. I don’t think it plays out like this week or even this month, but I do think you look back in say six months and this is up near a hundred as rates change.

22:08So I, I do want to highlight that. I, I think from, I think it’s already a portfolio company of theirs. Uh, so they’ve been long for a while, but I think what, what I thought was interesting was that they were adding to the position here. Right. And so I think this kind of goes to what we were all also talking about last episode of rocket mortgages, RKT, or, I mean, it’s just, I think it’s more of a rocket companies.

22:31I think they’re more diversified and like, that’s probably just more of a leverage bet, uh, than Lenar would be. But in general, home builders, um, in general are, are there a leverage bet on, uh, on rates? Right. And you can see that the home builders index is near lows, um, as rates are near highs.

22:51But honestly, like this, this has held up better than I thought it would have comparatively speaking. Um, so yeah, there’s just something to, to keep an eye on if, if, and when rates truly are going to start, uh, coming down.

23:07I think we’re going to start seeing, uh, very strong bounces in home builders. Right. I mean, this is like, I think this is a very broad trade, right. Cause if rates are coming down, then, you know, commodities are pumping. Crypto is pumping. Home builders are pumping. These are all like different expressions of the same trade of, you know, shorting rates. Right.

23:30I will keep my eye on it. Um, like, again, I still think, uh, even if you’re not like, if you’re watching this, like, I don’t care about home builders. I just want to go trade. I want to go know like what to trade and what’s hot. You should know this as we especially move closer to TradFi, uh, in crypto, it’ll be something you need to understand and it’ll probably help you make money in the longer term. Um, so covering this, making sure everybody is aware, financially literate, um, and making sure you know how to trade every asset class, uh, that is out there as, uh, you know, as it could be Pokemon cards. It could be home builders. Give me compute credits. Who knows? Um, man, like so many different markets have come out at this point. Gotcha. The gotcha market, um, has, I think, driven the collectibles market more than I care to credit it for. Um, And I don’t see it slowing down. And it’s very interesting. I talked to a few people that are launching, uh, collectibles companies, even if they aren’t fully gotcha. Um, it is, it is a sector that is blowing up on the private side. And, you know, I think we’ll have some hundred million dollar backed companies that have raised a hundred million dollars, uh, entering into the crypto or tokenized sphere here in the next six months that are really going to change how people view it.

24:59You moving money, whether that is physical gold bullion, uh, or Pokemon cards, obviously art. Um, but I think even as you start to get into to like seeing some stuff on like fractionalized home stuff, starting to like come up again, gets very weird. It’s like very, uh, very spooky.

25:19As you start to realize, okay, all this is an actual reality. Like you have Coinbase in the same, in the same seven day span announced that they are bringing Pokemon cards, tokenized and on chain to their, their service.

25:33It’s that deals with billions of dollars, institutions, uh, millions of retail customers, as well as seven days later than being like, we’re doing a trading competition in Singapore.

25:43And we’re going to, you know, basically have a like ESPN level hype, you know, athlete show of people trading walkouts, et cetera.

25:51And so you have this weird disposition of the winners in this space are not only going to have to have as many assets and be open to having whatever you want to trade be traded, but the winner will ultimately have to be trustworthy as you have people moving to stocks and even borrowing.

26:09Like I thought about this morning, Coinbase is likely in a better position than many others because they are able to do this bargain against stocks and other assets that they’re rolling out.

26:20And I would trust them doing that because they’re a large institution that’s been around versus a no-name.

26:27And I could get into this, a whole rant between why I think.

26:29Yeah, but like, I mean, that’s like kind of any of the big centralized exchanges, right?

26:34Like people trust Binance, Kraken, OKX, right?

26:38Like these are, these guys, you know, there’s obviously like tiers, right?

26:43In terms of centralized exchanges and they’re all going out there, you know, what these emerging markets where they see kind of like the same pie, right?

26:51And growing from there. So, yeah, I mean, I tend to agree with you, right?

26:55I think that like you want, I mean, trust as a brand is very, very valuable, right?

27:01I think this is, what’s interesting is that Solana is at a disadvantage here.

27:06If you were to look at, I know in the meme stocks side, which is probably not the greatest thing to look at, but on the meme stock side where there’s volume, Robinhood leads about two to one over Solana, who’s in second.

27:21Base is like, they probably own three to five percent of the meme stock volume side.

27:29Base is like, you think it’s like, you think it’s that high?

27:32Like, because I was looking at like AUM, I think this morning, base has like almost no like AUM in terms of stocks issued on chain.

27:43This is, oh, yeah, yes.

27:45The analysis here is on meme stocks.

27:50Unfortunately, I did not get this graphic pulled in.

27:52I’ll throw it on the screen for you to see here.

27:58We’re doing it. We’re doing it live.

28:01But this is meme stocks, right? Like this is this is not this is not actual stocks.

28:07But I think I think they’re pretty closely correlated here.

28:10So, Solana, Robinhood are are by far the winners.

28:17But where it gets really interesting is that Robinhood and Coinbase, they’re obviously financial institutions and have distribution with like customers signed up.

28:27Solana is at the disadvantage of they don’t have that.

28:29So they have to rely on partnerships, et cetera, which I think brings up a very interesting dynamic of like, will will it be an advantage or disadvantage in the long run of whether, you know, based on what chain you’re using or which token you’re buying to try to make the most upside here for that distribution?

28:51And the only one, though, in this conversation that is interesting, like truly, truly interesting to me will be Kraken because they’re the only one that has all the tech, has to a degree, all the distribution of everybody else.

29:08And they’re the only ones of the four mentioned here that will have a token for their chain.

29:14And so that that to me is just like the sleeping giant of the bunch at this point.

29:20Well, to your point, like Solana obviously has a token, but you’re you’re talking about like they have a token coming.

29:26Right. That will. There’s there’s the like massive upside. Yeah.

29:30And so but like I will say, I think the interesting thing about Kraken is that it seems like that they’re setting up kind of like, you know, and I and I feel like they’ve spoken about this, that they want to kind of be like.

29:47Infrastructure as a service for, you know, for financial services, right, and to kind of like help be that for everyone and it doesn’t matter necessarily your chain. Right.

29:57And I think you kind of see that with X stocks. Right. I think.

30:01In terms of volume, in terms of tokenized stock volume on Solana, it’s between Backpack and xStocks, right?

30:08And so the fact that xStocks is on Solana, I think kind of tells you how Kraken has been viewing just like the space in general, right?

30:19And I think kind of going back to what we were talking about earlier this week, where I think everybody is viewing it as stablecoins all over again, right?

30:30And the reason why USDT and USDC worked and why they’re, like, even off the top of my head, I couldn’t even tell you what the number three stablecoin is in terms of volume.

30:40Maybe like the Tron stablecoin.

30:42I don’t even know what it is because I never...

30:44USD1. I have also the graphic for this made this morning.

30:48I just, again, we’re running a little technical difficulties here.

30:52But yeah, no, it is the top three here.

30:55And this graphic was built purely because of the Samsung announcement with Solana USDC coming to all phones.

31:04USDC on Solana is by far the winner.

31:08USDT, number two, and then USD1, number three.

31:12The difference in volume is staggering, though.

31:15USDC on Solana doing over $750 million in 24 hours.

31:21USDT doing $90 million.

31:24And USD1 doing $8 million.

31:26So what’s a 100x gap between one and three?

31:31Okay, but USDT is only at, what did you say it was?

31:35$9 million? 90. That’s on Solana, right? It is on Solana.

31:40Right, because I feel like on a global basis, I thought that USDT did more volume than USDC.

31:47Sure, and this is maybe too niched down.

31:50USDT, I believe, on the EVM side is absolutely putting on a master class compared to everyone else.

31:57Right, yeah. But yeah, I mean, I just think that you see this.

32:01This is where I think tokenized equities will be.

32:05And I think more and more stuff will come on chain.

32:09I, like, again, this is my bull case for Quotrons is that if that’s the bet, I think Quotrons is one of the more asymmetric bets that you can make on it in terms of, like, valuation-wise for that upside if it happens, right?

32:24So, yeah. But, like, dude, I do think that everybody realizes this.

32:28I was actually looking at a dashboard this morning.

32:31I can’t find it if none of you are sharing it.

32:33But, you know, Ando’s number one.

32:36Xtalks is number two. This is in terms of AUM. Ando’s number one. Xtalks number two. And Binance tokenized equities, I think they’re called Bstocks, is number three.

32:47And that’s, dude, that’s Binance being Binance, right?

32:49I think that’s one of the things that has made CZ so successful is when he sees an opportunity, they will really throw their weight behind it.

32:59And I think they understand that with everything that they saw with the stablecoin space and everything that happened with USDT of being like, hey, like, we have to win this, right?

33:10And I think everybody understands that. Everybody understands it at this point. My question is, I don’t think I have an answer, nor am I going to go fishing for an answer, you know, just come up with one to have a take on the show.

33:22But what does that fuel next?

33:25Is it, like, where should you be moving?

33:28We know the puck is headed towards tokenized equities being all on chain.

33:32What is the next best move as either a builder or as a trader to get the upside?

33:37Um, and I, and I know even our audience isn’t all even, even traders or builders.

33:42We have managers, we have people in, on Wall Street, we have people.

33:46I like to that point, right?

33:48I think some interesting stuff, right?

33:50Is like, all right, how, like, I, I actually just read something, I think 10 minutes before we came on the show of how the prime brokerage units of a lot of the Wall Street banks are some of the most, um, biggest revenue generating, uh, sections.

34:06Portions of these banks right now.

34:08And so the interesting thing about prime brokerage, prime brokerage is all back office stuff, right?

34:13Prime brokerage is like, Hey, you want to borrow this stock to short it?

34:16You know, we charge you this amount and then you clear all your trades through us, this and that.

34:21They, it basically provides all the support you need as a fund to kind of run it.

34:25Right. So it’s like, uh, if I have like G money capital, I can prime brokerage at Goldman.

34:32You need, you know, about, I think a hundred million dollars worth of AUM.

34:36Uh, in order to just entertain the combo.

34:39And even then I think you’d be considered small, but then what, what Goldman does is they’ll custody all your assets and I have my capital there.

34:46And, you know, whether I buy or sell a stock, it clears through them.

34:49They hold onto it. They charge some, they make some money off of whether it’s, uh, charging fees on interest or, you know, when I borrow something to short it, they make money off that.

35:00So I think what we’re going to start seeing is a lot of these back office units start coming on chain and, you know, this is again, like everything that we thought was interesting.

35:11One, one of the, one of the things we thought was interesting about crypto, specifically like, you know, starting in with DeFi summer is that you can see like real time, like what risk is.

35:23Right. Cause like, I think all the things that led to 2008 and whenever there’s these questions around marks and, you know, who solved it and stuff like that, you don’t know what’s on the books.

35:34Right. And so that that’s really kind of like what causes a lot of these issues and bringing stuff on chain is, you know, you can see these stuff, these things on chain and, you know, maybe you’re like, oh, well, like we don’t need to mark this to this number.

35:49But I’m like, Hey, like, I know that that’s like way off mark.

35:53Right. Like, and so like, I know whatever, whether I short your stock because of it, or, um, I take the other side of that position and, and kind of force you to be a seller or whatever.

36:03And I think these types of things kind of lead to more transparency and more honesty on chain.

36:08But I think what we’re going to start seeing is more and more of these business units, maybe not all at once, but start to come on chain and like generate that yield on chain.

36:20Does this mean that the winners of DeFi 2.0 will be the current incumbents of DeFi 1.0?

36:26Like is, does Aave come out of this as the ultimate winner where people want yield on chain?

36:33Possibly. I actually was talking to somebody yesterday and they just sent me a couple, a couple of projects that are, are building kind of like almost, I think like stock loan type pools, uh, on chain and they’re all built on top of Aave.

36:46Right. So, I, I mean, like we were talking about it last week.

36:49You could take the comparable, right?

36:52Yeah. I was going to say, literally, you could take the comparable Uniswap where all the swaps will have to happen on chain.

36:58You’ll need a centralized exchange. Great. That is, that is Uniswap, but on the borrow and yield side, who it’s not Uniswap.

37:06Who was it originally? I, I, I love this take.

37:09I love this take. I think Aave could be possibly one of the sleeping giants of, of this moving forward.

37:15Um, I mean, it’s, I mean, I, I, I definitely think like, we’re not alone in this, right?

37:20Like Aave’s up, uh, almost three X off alone.

37:23We are certainly not the first ones to come up with this take, but it’s still a good take.

37:27But yeah, no, I, I agree.

37:29And like, listen, Uniswap, um, well, wrong, wrong chart.

37:34Um, damn.

37:38Okay. Well, there we go. There we go. There we go. Yeah. Um, all right. So Uniswap had a run, pullback.

37:45I mean, this might be interesting, an interesting buy around here, but yeah, I mean, I just think in general, this got overextended, right?

37:52To, to a degree. And I think it got overextended when every single thread you, you looked at and the buzzword of the, of, of the fucking cycle became hook, V4 hook, V4 hook, hook this, hook that.

38:06Oh, I’m going to bridge hooks through.

38:10That’s I, you could tell it was, it was overplayed to an extent, still a great product.

38:14I think it’s, it’s here to stay, but, uh, I got a little frothy there.

38:18Um, I haven’t heard the word Aave mentioned in some time though.

38:22That hasn’t made its way to, uh, KOL Twitter.

38:27So the broccoli haired kids of the broccoli haired traders.

38:33That’s strong. Uh, yeah. I mean, look, it’s, it’s been, it’s been holding pretty strong.

38:37I think, again, those are the, the two top of mind that I think, um, could be big winners in a meta like this. And also, you know, that they’ve been chatting with regulators.

38:49Yeah. Um, yeah. I mean, I don’t curve. I, I mean, I don’t know. Cause like curve was really, from my understanding curve was very focused on stable coins.

38:58Right. And it was like stable coin liquidity.

39:01Yeah. I don’t know. Like, I don’t know what’s been going on there to be perfectly honest.

39:05CRX. No, or. No. Uh, curve is CRV.

39:10Sorry. And then I think there’s like convex, which is.

39:12Convex. Maybe I’m mixing the two up, but I, look, I think, I think you gotta, you gotta go back to, and I will break it out. I, cause I have all the notebooks from 21, 17 to 21.

39:25Cause I kept a daily journal basically of all my trades, what I was seeing, my hypothesis, how it played out. I should start doing that again.

39:33Um, but I have all the old tickers.

39:35Uh, and I think that probably worth going back and looking at like, all right, what was I looking at? What did I think was going to work?

39:42Who survived? Um, and I think ultimately a lot of the ideas we saw fail, um, back in the 27 to 21 cycle, there are definitely a handful of areas there that were just too early.

39:55Great ideas would, uh, or get, would do amazing today if launched and they’re just a little too early. And so I think you got to be doing some archaeology on DeFi 1.0 this week and coming weeks to understand where to move.

40:10I mean, this is what I think we’ve been talking about this for the last couple of months is this is what I have found the most interesting about the tokenized equity meta is that the biggest problem with DeFi summer from 2020 was that you were trading tokens that were either worthless or massively overvalued, right?

40:30Because it was like, oh, look at like the TAM, right?

40:32Like, I mean, Aave, great idea.

40:34It definitely got ahead of itself in terms of valuation, right?

40:37And if we go back, you know, let’s see.

40:41Yeah, $8 billion market cap at the highs.

40:45And right now we’re at like $2.5 billion, right?

40:50Five years later, six years later, right?

40:53And so, you know, like will it get there?

40:56Hopefully, right? As long as like they increase AUM and they keep on – it’s like the slow methodical build, right?

41:02It’s like it’s not – you know, it’s like typical TradFi.

41:06And so I think the interesting thing about all of this that’s been happening with tokenized equities is that now you can apply these same concepts to products that have inherent value, right?

41:20And it’s not – like the biggest problem with like when Aave launched, you’re like, all right, cool.

41:24This is a great concept, but like it’s not going to play out overnight, right?

41:27Like all of finances isn’t coming on chain within the next 12 months, right?

41:32And it’s going to be within the next 10 to 20 years.

41:35And yeah, it’s a secular long-term winner for sure.

41:39And I think like tokenized equities is kind of leading to that, but, you know, it just takes time, right?

41:45Like these large deals bringing massive amounts of assets on chain just takes time.

41:51You need to get the infrastructure right. I feel like there’s a lot of things that, you know, we’ve been gearing towards.

41:56And I think for the first time, the headline that I read last week along the lines of U.S. Treasury buying has been absorbing a lot of the selling from foreign investors, and that buying has been coming from like crypto stable coins, right?

42:13And so I think that the government – and we know this.

42:17This is what Besant has said basically since he’s been Treasury Secretary is that crypto will become a big part of like the Treasury issuance like circle, right?

42:30And it’s like the reason for that is because if foreign governments are net sellers of Treasuries, you need to find some buyer, right?

42:37And that buyer could and the goal is to kind of keep, you know, the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency asset, it’s like if people are buying dollars in crypto in order to do that.

42:51Because like I think Tether is like the biggest buyer of U.S. Treasuries in the world right now, right?

42:56Oh, by far. By far. And so those types of things just tell me that crypto – and this is like – it got me rethinking.

43:06It’s like I know we’ve been talking about how crypto is a very partisan issue right now, but I do think at some point – like let’s say the Dems come into power in 2028.

43:15They win the presidency.

43:17Whoever is president then, unless they’re like a massive socialist that is going to like, you know, reverse all these things that have been happening in terms of crypto in the last couple of years, I think they’re going to realize that and be like, yeah, if we like want to stay in power, we kind of have to keep this flywheel going because – and crypto – we need to like elevate crypto within our ecosystem because it’s going to help feed U.S. dominance in terms of reserve currency.

43:46And so these are like long-term plays like that.

43:49I just – I was reading that and I’m like, all right, this is very interesting because, you know, we know they spoke about it initially, but now to start seeing it actually in action as, you know, a lot of central banks are selling their dollars and, you know, we actually have some demand that’s offsetting it and like now it’s like in practice, right?

44:08Yeah.

44:11Fascinating way that the geopolitical events, the world events are, again, so intertwined in what we’re doing.

44:19Years ago, Visa buying a CryptoPunk was enough to send the entire industry raveling.

44:25Today it is a normal state to see a lot of our rails being used by some of the largest entities and governments in the world.

44:35I would – I’d love to chat on – maybe on the political side here, as I saw it just take a cross, WTI, oil up $92.

44:44It seems like there’s some ruffled feathers between the Trump administration, which is Trump himself, and Iran once again.

44:51And, you know, regardless of what Bessett does, et cetera, we still have this looming issue that is the non-settled Iran conflict.

45:03What’s your take right now where we stand?

45:05So I was reading a couple headlines on it this morning.

45:08I thought it was kind of weird because it was saying how Trump wants to strike before midterms, and he wants – like the Pentagon is preparing to strike on Iran again pretty soon.

45:20And I – it just – it just doesn’t make sense compared to, like, I feel like everything that we’ve heard up until this point, right, of like – it’s almost like we’re at a stalemate.

45:30I don’t think – like if the U.S. were to strike Iran, unless you have, like, a lot of certainty that this is going to end the war, it just doesn’t make sense because then Iran is just going to strike back at some refineries in the area, and that will send up the price of oil even more.

45:47So I don’t know. Maybe it’s just – again, like with all this stuff, especially with politics and geopolitics and the Middle East and oil, I feel like there are just so many different factions that are trying to, like, false flag things and, like, maybe push the president or lawmakers into doing the things that they want.

46:07It’s almost like maybe something like this gets leaked to try to kind of force an escalation, and I don’t know.

46:14It’s just weird. Like, I mean, obviously oil is up today, but I kind of take it with a grain of salt in the sense that I almost feel like if Trump were to escalate the war right now with less than 30 days into the midterms, it’s almost like political suicide in terms of, like, making yourself a lame duck president for the next two years.

46:35And so I don’t know if he would want to risk that, right?

46:37Like, even if he – let’s say it was on the table, I feel like the smart thing to do would be to wait until after the midterms.

46:45But what do I know?

46:51I have no idea at this point.

46:53I think it’s – I think it’s one of those things that where you know he is watching and he understands the game he’s playing because we’ve seen it with the stock market and he understands the election, how important it is.

47:05So any decision I feel like he makes is going to be based around, like, midterm, you know, how it reflects and how it’s – So one thing, this is, like, not exactly related.

47:19Well, it’s, like, somewhat related.

47:21I read this tweet this morning from just another pod guy where he was kind of talking about the explanations for why Polymark and Kalshi are so far off the mark.

47:30And he gives three reasons. One is users are younger, and so they’re betting along ideologies.

47:36All right, that kind of makes sense.

47:38Two is that Democrats are using it as cheap marketing mechanism to drive lower Republican turnout.

47:43I don’t know if that necessarily makes all that much sense to me because, like, why wouldn’t Republicans be doing the same thing if that was the case?

47:52And then number three, which I thought was interesting, I hadn’t thought of, is that the Trump admin is manipulating – and this isn’t specifically towards prediction markets.

48:03But, like, maybe he’s just trying to keep China, Iran, and the Europeans kind of, like, thinking, like, okay, we only have to deal with this guy for another month, and then he’s a lame duck president.

48:16And, like, really, he’s just – like, who knows?

48:18Maybe in, like, two weeks he’s like, all right, peace deal with Iran.

48:22And then all of a sudden people are like, oh, all right, cool.

48:24The number one thing people dislike about what he’s been doing is now, like, off the table, right?

48:29And so, again, I think with a lot of these geopolitical events, there’s just so much that’s happening behind the scenes that we don’t know that all we can do is, like, kind of, like, analyze with the information that we have.

48:40But I think it’s really tough to make, like, long-term financial decisions based off of it, right?

48:48So it’s, like, again, headline today, we’re getting ready to strike Iran.

48:52We know that the president tacos on pretty much every important issue out there.

48:58Where he could come out and be like, oh, we resolved it, right?

49:00And it could also be something as simple as, like, oh, if they think that we’re going to attack, maybe that brings them to the table because maybe they have some intelligence that – intel out there that we don’t know, right?

49:12That’s like, oh, they’re vulnerable right now. No, they certainly do. They certainly do. Right? Yeah. Yeah.

49:19Well, we’ll know. We’ll know as this plays out. That’s the good news.

49:23I think – oh, man, it’s such a, like, black mirror way of, like, being – what is going on at the highest levels of the government right now?

49:33Damn, that is crazy. I did – I really want to flag real quick that as we started the show 42 minutes ago, the U.S. government moved another – additional to what I had said, they moved another billion dollars of Bitcoin, 12,200 BTC.

49:52I believe this brings a total to, like, three or four billion dollars of assets the government has moved in the last 24 hours alone.

50:00Um, that are crypto that have not been moved before. Like this is, this is, I want to be clear. This is not, uh, I’ll keep this up. Uh, this is not normal behavior. We, we’ve never seen this much capital, uh, on chain be moved by the U.S. government. Um, and it is, it is certainly to my opening point on, uh, the show about, you know, am I concerned? There’s clearly still validity here, right?

50:28Like I also, I also want to like very clear that all of these labs have a one-to-one relationship with the U.S. government at this point, right? Like the U.S. government knows what is the, like the latest and greatest research that’s coming out. I am, I’m positive that the U.S. government is forcing the labs that are U.S. based to hold back, uh, research. This seems to be one of the ones that they, the labs have been allowed to publish.

50:56But again, all the crypto, uh, the cryptographic proofs are missing. So again, there’s, there’s valid stuff happening here. I just don’t think for you, most people, it is like freak out, move, move stuff, but there’s.

51:10You’re, you’re freaking me out right now. I’ll tell you that much. I’m like, man, should I be moving all my stuff after the show?

51:15But here’s like, what are you going to do? Like you move it to a new address and, and I would say here, their probably take is that if you’ve done transactions, if you’ve moved it, there is, there’s a pattern in there. There is, you can actually back engineer off of more transactions, uh, to break that seed.

51:37I’m sure there’s something, something like that in there when this all comes out. However, if that happens, the entire, like the entire space is just, it’s cooked.

51:47So it’s kind of like a do it if you want, but well, if it’s, well, isn’t like, okay. But isn’t the, uh, the advice is to come back to the top of the show, I guess to come full circle.

52:00But the advice has been to move your assets to a new wallet. That’s never transacted on chain because the, the public hash key hasn’t been displayed. Right. And so then maybe that adds like the thought process is that adds like some extra layer of protection that you wouldn’t have with anything that’s transacted on chain. Right.

52:21Yeah. I mean, uh, public hash key would be, yeah, this goes, this would be the U S government true. Surely thinks North, like this is, this has North Korea slash, uh, you know, other, other governments clearly are within striking distance of figuring this out. That, I think that’s the level we’re at right now or China.

52:45Like, I, I think, I think if we also even do a callback to when we started the show, uh, what was that like October, November of last year, when you and I sat down and had that fantastic burger dinner, uh, New York, we, we talked about how if this AI compute and all these labs are a national defense level and we are neck and neck with China.

53:10And I believe we’re probably ahead of China at this point to a degree. And the U S knows, okay, we figured this out today. China is only four weeks behind us. Six weeks. Like I, that is, that’s the reality of the race right now. Um, right.

53:28I mean, maybe, yeah. Okay. I mean, I’m a little bit more concerned than I was at the beginning of the show.

53:33Did we just talk ourselves into moving all of our assets to new wallets? That’s the real question.

53:38Hey, tax right off baby. Um, um, but yeah, no, I listen, I agree. I think more stuff will be coming out over the next, um, couple of days and weeks. But again, I, I do think that cause it’s all relative, right?

53:54So even though you say that, um, you know, the smaller, the amounts that you have on chain, the less likely you are to be targeted, but it’s all, it’s all relative. Right. Cause like, no matter how much money you lose, it’s going to be like, unless it’s like an insignificant amount, you’re like, oh, well, like, I wish I didn’t lose that. Right. Cause you were, you counted on it. Right. Like you thought it was yours. So, but yeah. Um, I guess like that’s kind of, I feel like that was kind of all we got for the show today.

54:24Yeah. I, I’m not sure if we want to touch on grok or any of the AI trade at all. Um, I started using rock, as you mentioned, your, your use it quite significantly into your workflow. I’m amazed by it. I love it. If you haven’t used it yet, um, highly recommend it. It has been, I mean, really a significant uptake in productivity on my end of things.

54:47I will say that like, I’ve been utilizing grok as like my overall assistant workflows. And I’ve been doing that for a while. And then, um, I started like refactoring some of the stuff that I had done. Like that was more technical, uh, starting like yesterday with opus 5.5. And it’s been like incredibly good and awesome to work with. And I think also, um, you know, credit to both chat GPT.

55:13And to Claude in the sense that you can now create remote working sessions. So before stuff that I would have to do from the command line, uh, prompt and be in front of my computer in order to really do.

55:25I’m now doing it from my mobile app, uh, on the phone, on the go, and I’m able to kind of like get feedback and this and that. I don’t know how good the output is yet, but it does seem like it’s catching things that I wasn’t, um, aware of. And so we’ll see.

55:41But like, I, I just think like these things are becoming better and better. They’re only going to get better from here. And I think we’re just like very compute constrained. And I, I think it’s funny. Cause I think we’re at a point right now when you look at like the equity valuations, where I think investors still don’t necessarily believe that, you know, there’s maybe a next leg up that is coming.

56:04Uh, and I think a lot of it is people are a little concerned about Anthropic and the IPO that should be coming within probably again, the neck before the end of the year.

56:13And that’s probably weighing on, on, on sentiment a little bit. Samsung reported numbers last night. The numbers were good. It’s sold off, you know, Samsung competitor to Micron, uh, who reported last week. Micron is, what is that?

56:30It’s higher than going into numbers or I think it might be, it’s about flat since, uh, it reported.

56:36You know, yeah. Yeah. Pulling it up right now. And, but yeah, like to me, it’s like, again, I just think that it’s probably kind of like, uh, a show me story. It seems like at this point, it just, uh, this is kind of what I brought up last week is like the numbers are really good, but the stock isn’t reacting exactly as I would expect it to.

57:00So it’s just like something to flag. I’m still bullish, but like, I am noticing that, all right, good news is coming out. We’re not like re-rating higher, you know, maybe, you know, the market, the market’s always a forward-looking mechanism. So maybe it’s just like something, something to flag and just to look at.

57:21So we’ll keep it on the radar. I, uh, I’m getting text messages about this security stuff. Not making me feel better. Not gonna lie. Uh, some of the cryptographers that I talked to last night, 80, adding some commentary, um, saying that I’m downplaying to, to a level of like, it is, is more real.

57:47Like, it’s very real. Um, it’s more a level of like, the question is like, when does it happen and who does it affect? Um, so now it’s really kind of like, when’s, when’s the timeline? Um, I will say, man, fantastic show. Uh, I enjoyed, I enjoyed going over everything. And I believe we’ll be back with, uh, some significant news as we have some key dates ahead, uh, next week. Um, we’ll be looking for that from, uh, I think there’s some Fed numbers next week that we’ll be looking for, um, as well as another fantastic weekend, uh, with token 49 wrapping up. All our announcements of that are done. And we’ll have some more show improvements next week as well. We’ll be back 10 30 AM next Tuesday here on X. Make sure you’re following across all the socials. Um, we’ll see you next week. Thanks for tuning in, everybody. Uh, and we appreciate it as always. Cheers.