Rates, Robinhood vs Solana, and AI Usage Decline!

0:00What is up, everybody? Welcome back to another episode of Full Port. I’m here with my trusty co-host and partner in crime, gmoney.

0:08We’ve got a lot to go over today. Rates are in the news, in the headlines. AI usage decline. Meta-advising a decrease in usage. We’ll get into that.

0:21And also notably, we are seeing two of the biggest names in the crypto space swing it out over who will take over the RWA and the rails of modern TradFi finance as they come on chain between Solana and Robinhood.

0:36And I think we have some others that are trying to make their move into, I would say, the frontier of the modern TradFi finance space, such as Kraken.

0:46We’ll get into all of this during the show. But first, gmoney, how are you doing this morning, my good friend?

0:52I’m good. Had a good weekend. You know, I think we want to talk about, I want to talk about an update on the micron trade.

1:00I hit the low out on Thursday morning after numbers. And I think this is one of the reasons why I like options over perps in that sense, is that it really just, I like knowing my risk, being able to see what in advance, like how much I’m risking on the trade, as opposed to maybe, you know, getting stopped out at the lows, which I was on the perps position.

1:26So it was annoying. But overall, still have my options positions on. And yeah, I guess like we can get into that later.

1:35But I do want to start with rates because I do think that it’s been very interesting to see rates sticking up here.

1:45If you want to bring up my screen real quick. Of course. I want to I want to bring up the chart of first the 10 year and the 30 year also is acting pretty much exactly the same.

1:56Right. Where rates have have gone up. They’re holding out up near the highs.

2:01And I think to me, the very interesting this obviously been in the in the news in the news for a couple of weeks and maybe even a couple of months at this point.

2:11But to me, the most interesting part about this is that generally when rates go up, stock prices go down.

2:17And the reason for that, right, is as the risk free cost of capital goes higher, the return that you will require from non risk free assets, such as the stock market, goes up as well.

2:33So usually in those scenarios, people, you know, money will rotate out of more risky assets into a higher risk, a higher yielding risk free asset, which is government treasuries.

2:47And the fact that we’re hanging out up here in terms of rates, while concurrently the stock market, the queues are at all time highs.

3:00The S&P 500 is a touch above all time highs, I think is really interesting.

3:08And I think that that’s something that I, you know, I think when you look at what are some upside catalysts from here in terms of, you know, obviously we have the midterms coming up in pretty much 30 days.

3:24And you want to see, like, oh, what should I be doing here?

3:26How should I be positioned and whatnot?

3:28You know, I think that Trump obviously understands what rates are, right, and how important they are to the market.

3:39Besant definitely understands it. I think that I saw this headline right before the show saying that Berkshire increased their position in Lenar, which is one of the largest homebuilders in the country.

3:54And that stock has obviously been doing pretty terribly over the last couple months because rates have been high.

4:02And if Berkshire is looking to buy a homebuilder right around here, that means they’re probably making the bet that rates are close to peaking because homebuilders move inverse to rates, right?

4:17Because obviously as rates go down, then the cost of a mortgage goes down, which means you can increase – you can afford a more expensive home.

4:29And so I think that that’s very interesting.

4:32So I think to me – I was also looking at Rocket Mortgage last week.

4:37I saw a couple people tweeting about it last week.

4:40It’s also, like, a rates trade, RKT Rocket Companies chart looks pretty much the same.

4:48People were talking about it last week.

4:50I thought it’s very interesting because it is levered to mortgage rates and refinancing if rates are peaking, right?

4:57Because it’s like, again, we climb that wall of worry, and if the stock market is at all-time highs and rates are high and you know that the administration wants lower rates, right?

5:09I think there’s two keys that they’re trying to do here.

5:11One is how do you lower energy prices and that if some sort of deal is struck even temporarily with Iran that gets oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, then the risk premium on oil starts to go down a little bit, right?

5:28Which is good for lowering inflation, but then also – and I saw this headline this morning that Besant basically is saying, like, we do have a few tricks up our sleeve, right?

5:42Like, if we really want to lower rates, we can do it rather quickly.

5:45Now, part of that is probably him jawboning the market, but the thing I will say about what central banks around the world have been able to do repeatedly for the past, say, close to 30 years is that they’re able to pull rabbits out of the hat that might not be there.

6:05Because I remember being like a huge gold bug in 2008 and being like, oh, the Fed’s cornered, everything’s coming to a head, we need to bring austerity in and fix these problems.

6:20And they always manage to print and pull stuff and get out of the corner.

6:26And I do think that maybe we’re closer to that endgame, but you will never discount the fact that these people understand liquidity, understand – I think it’s almost like you’re trying to land the plane on a really short runway, right?

6:45Where it’s like there has to be some sort of inflation because how else are you going to pay off the debt, but also if there’s too much inflation, then there’s riots on the street and you get some sort of populist-style revolt that has happened throughout history.

7:00So, yeah, I do think that the interesting setup here to me is the fact that rates are so high, the stock market is at all-time highs when generally it tells you that they should – the stock market should be selling off in this scenario.

7:20And so – and then you have smart investors, like I said, like Berkshire, buying companies that are levered to interest rates going lower.

7:29And so I think that becomes like pretty interesting.

7:32And so I saw that this morning.

7:34I was looking at Rocket last week.

7:36I’m probably going to maybe look to put on a position over the next week or two on that because I think that’s kind of interesting to play that on top of like the gold plays because in these scenarios, right, like it’s basically like you’re increasing liquidity.

7:53So I think Bitcoin obviously does well.

7:57Crypto in general does well. But then also it’s like how can you play these other same types of trades but like slightly different, right?

8:05And so that’s why I think that this is – this has been pretty interesting.

8:08And obviously it’s been in the news a lot and I almost feel like – it almost feels like it’s coming to a head.

8:15And at some point we might wake up one day and rates are down 10 to 20 bips and the stock market will be like flying, right?

8:27So I think that’s been pretty interesting.

8:30Yeah, the one area that makes me really think here is – and you’ve mentioned it before.

8:37You know Trump has his eye on, you know, the QQQ.

8:41He’s watching WTI.

8:42He’s watching interest rates.

8:44It’s like – and I think there’s a bit of a thumb on the scale of like him bullposting to get numbers higher across the board, obviously not for rates.

8:55You could make the argument here then that because we have all this strength and rates just are higher.

9:02If they were to go down, doesn’t this accelerate across the board as more money flows back into, you know, risk assets, et cetera?

9:11It could be kind of like a blow-off top if that – if it plays out in that scenario.

9:19On rates or the market? On the market.

9:23Yeah, well, I mean if rates start going lower, I don’t know if it necessarily would be a blow-off top because that means like rates – like we’re going to be – it’s going to be the beginning of an easing cycle, right?

9:34And so if rates are going lower, then there’s going to be more and more liquidity coming in.

9:38So I don’t know if the blow-off top would be anytime soon, right?

9:43I think to me like the big risk is whether – to me the big risk is whether like AI spending like slows down, right?

9:51Because that’s like obviously the big thing on everybody’s – on everybody’s let’s say risk analysis, right?

9:59Is like what happens if the AI build out?

10:01Slows down. And then, you know, the economy is basically like all AI and AI related spend at this moment. Right. And it’s being driven by, let’s say, like, whatever the top 10 largest companies in the world that are levered to AI and everything else is pretty weak. Right. So, yeah, I think that’s that’s pretty interesting there. That’s a pretty interesting setup.

10:23Yeah. Oh, Meta came out and actually gave some guidance on this and saying we’re going to slow down here, which I think spooked quite a lot of people. I don’t know if you could pull up.

10:37So, I know. I don’t know if they came out and said that they were going to slow down spend. They said that they were going to spend less with Claude. Right.

10:46So, I think that they were doing more stuff with internally and the stock was up yesterday and it’s kind of flat right now. And so, that as well as Microsoft, I think Microsoft went up yesterday as well.

11:01Well, I think the notable thing here from like a spooking perspective is it is clear that large tech companies that have the resources are going to internalize this stuff and build out their own because one, there’s an economy of scale there as, you know, you don’t have to pay upcharge on usage.

11:24But I think also it may be sent like a notice across the industry like, hey, this is the reality that Meta is here to play. They’re not going to be, you know, operating with the other large incumbents.

11:37But like, what happens if IBM takes the same stance? What happens if Intel takes the same stance? You know, NVIDIA has already taken the same stance. They’re for sure working on their own LLM. Like, I think it’s become more seen across the industry.

11:54Right. Well, I mean, listen, I think this is kind of what we’ve heard people drumming the beat on for the last couple months, right? Is like, you know, are you going to be utilizing Anthropic and OpenAI, LLMs, and they’re going to train on your data or will you own that data, right?

12:13And I think that’s kind of been like the big question that’s been on people’s minds. But I do think to me, like the most interesting part of all of this is the fact that obviously they’re not slowing down on spend, but they just kind of want to own more of that proprietary data, right?

12:29And they don’t want to share it with competitors, right? And so again, like Microsoft is up over the last two days. Meta was up yesterday.

12:37So like, I think to me, the bigger implication here is what does this mean for Anthropics ARR, especially going into an IPO in the next, what people are expecting the next, whatever, 30 to 60 days.

12:53Not great because people want to be seeing acceleration of revenue into going public, especially at what, you know, people are saying a $2 trillion valuation.

13:04You don’t want to be seeing that slow down because I think I even saw this morning or last night something around a $65 billion ARR where they’re at right now, which is, you know, I think people, you know, we were talking last week or the week before of coming out of the year at $100 billion ARR, right, or $110 billion ARR.

13:23So if that starts slowing down and OpenAI also starts slowing down, then what does that mean for like the CapEx build out, right?

13:31So I think these are things to be like cautious of. I’m still super hyper bullish on all this.

13:36I use AI agents so much in my workflows that like, you know, we’ve talked about it a couple of times.

13:43Like when I hit my usage limits, I like can’t, I’m like, I’m useless for the most part, you know, like I’m like, ah, I’m just going to wait until I get my usage limits back and then I’ll get back to work.

13:55But yeah, I think like to me, the bigger indications of that headline yesterday was more so what does this mean for Anthropic and what does it mean for their IPO and the pricing and demand and, you know, subsequently, if the Anthropic IPO doesn’t go that great, what does that mean for the build out for, you know, the entire CapEx build out plan?

14:24Yeah. Yeah. And whatever is a bigger animal, it will be the equivalent of that in the coal mine, essentially.

14:32Yeah. And yeah, all eyes are there. That’s where eyes are.

14:37I do want to mention, because I just saw it come across the screen, SpaceX, $175, absolutely on its hair right now.

14:46Um, and you’ve been bullish about this since the low 100s, um, 115, 120, you’re like, hey, this, I’ve got a position on, but, uh, on, on the one day chart here, it’s breaking out.

14:59So I’d say probably, um, no, probably I’m, I’ve been law bullish on it’s probably since the one thirties, since this area right here is when we were talking about it.

15:09And, you know, I think it’s interesting. I saw, um, I saw a post last night that was referencing, uh, an Adam Jonas note, who is, uh, the ax in automakers.

15:22He’s like the best analyst on the street for automakers. He’s at Morgan Stanley.

15:25And I think he’s kind of transitioned over to full-time covering SpaceX. I don’t know if he’s covering the rest of the automakers anymore, but he, um, I think in his note yesterday, he basically said that he’s pitching, you know, SpaceX to roomfuls of investors.

15:42And then every time he’ll do that. And these are like institutional investors. These are, you know, guys that are running billions of dollars and, you know, like, like the fidelity is the, you know, 0.72 is like, not like guys like you and me.

15:56And he asked people, he’s like, Hey, like how, how many people in the room have, you know, a position in SpaceX. And he said, usually it’s like in a room of like 40 or 50, it’s like one or two people.

16:06And then I think in maybe late last week, uh, there was like zero people that raised their hands. So I think to, to me, that kind of tells me a little bit about positioning of like, you know, people, uh, it’s very similar, I think to like, almost like what Tesla did, um, in its early days where there’s a lot of, and I was one, I was in that camp of like non-believers and I was like, who’s this guy?

16:30What does he think he can, uh, you know, be the next, uh, Steve jobs or whatever. And this is before I knew exactly who Elon was. This is when Tesla was at, like, this might be a couple of splits back, but like Tesla was at 25 bucks.

16:43And I remember it re-rated to like a hundred, 125 after like one earnings call. But yeah, I, I just think it’s very interesting, right? Like it’s, um, I think it’s, uh, I, I am now an everyday user of GrokBot.

16:56Uh, I think SpaceX is one, uh, they have the foresight to be able to build compute, but then also can execute on it. Right. And so I think that’s why myself and, you know, a lot of other people are maybe smaller retail investors are bullish on SpaceX, but then the key is how do you get Wall Street, right?

17:20How do you get the big funds, uh, doing the same? So I, I think that’s very interesting because then that, that tells me that the trade isn’t really crowded and it’s non-consensus.

17:28So it could be consensus among retail, but it’s non-consensus among funds, uh, which means like the upside could be pretty big considering that if let’s say less than 5% of funds own SpaceX and, you know, the float is probably really low.

17:46Like, like it could, it could be set up pretty nicely to, to start squeezing at some point. Um, if, if funds start piling in.

17:55Look, I, I, uh, I always love the contrary bet. It would seem that, you know, obviously people sold off on the beginning. They had a lot of short sellers in the beginning. Um, but I think from a innovation standpoint, which is always where I bet my money within the, you know, pretty much anything.

18:16Or can you innovate? Um, SpaceX is one of the most innovating companies in the world. And I think that their impact, their surface area of impact is now touching not only us on logistics, not only on energy, uh, not only now on the AI front, but also on the social and new, like it’s just integrated into everything.

18:37Um, it, it, it truly is the, like the everything company at this point, which is wild how quickly he’s, he’s gone from, uh, go ahead.

18:48Yeah. I mean, like to that point is, you know, I’ve been having this conversation a lot with people is like AI agents don’t have that much moat, right?

18:57They have very like little moat because it’s like the difference between dots and grok and muse and all this and, uh, instinct is probably very minimal.

19:07And, um, it seems like you can port in between them pretty quickly, but I do think the value that I like of grok bot.

19:15And I think the, what I think is interesting about muse is that because grok bot is linked to X and muse is linked to Instagram and Facebook, you now have these social graphs or access to this data that these other agents don’t.

19:31Right. And so to me that it’s like that, that is kind of interesting. Right. And I, we saw this play out a little bit with Amazon, uh, two weeks ago, right.

19:41With, with meta where they blocked muse access to Amazon. And that’s what, uh, got me to buy, buy some Walmart calls. Like I, I closed out of it yesterday just cause I didn’t, it’s just, I’m like, I don’t know if I want to be placing my bet on Walmart here.

19:57And it didn’t really follow through. And so, but like, I just think it’s interesting cause we’re going to probably see more and more of this stuff where either.

20:03There’s deal-making that happens between a lot of these companies in order to get access to stuff, and they’re going to be, like, multi-billion-dollar deals.

20:11But I do think that, like, having access to their social graphs and to their networks is kind of a one-up, right, of, like, why would you want news over OpenAI?

20:22Because, yeah, it could, like, check your Instagram, where, like, normally that’s blocked, right, by all bots by Instagram, right?

20:30And I think that’s pretty valuable. Yeah, that is, those are definitely modes.

20:35I will come back to what I said in the last show, which is, I think the largest mode in AI is always going to be manufacturing and hardware development, which is a much longer timeline, a much more expensive timeline.

20:50And I would say a much larger, like, it’s just, it is a bigger envelope to address.

20:59It’s the only company that has a hardware sector to it right now that is playing in the AI game, or I guess there’s two, really.

21:09Meta is really taking over the wearable space and trying to own that space.

21:13Love it. They’re going to be a first-mover advantage against Apple, who I think is way behind for either good or bad reasons.

21:21You know, that’s your take.

21:24But Tesla is really the one that is like, look, yeah, we do Gronk.

21:27Like, we can flick a button, and now it’s in everybody’s Tesla.

21:31Like, that’s the distribution of hardware and product.

21:36Tesla, SpaceX, I, you know, at some point they’re probably going to merge.

21:39But, yeah, I think Tesla on the consumer side, but, you know, SpaceX obviously gets it on the industrial side, right?

21:47And, like, you know, because Elon is able to build all of these things.

21:51But I agree with you, right? I think that I’m definitely still very interested to see what Apple comes up with.

21:58I hope they come up with something soon because Siri, I think, is getting, like, even worse somehow.

22:05I don’t even think it could, but, like, I try.

22:08It’s absolutely terrible. I only really use it. I only use it sometimes to ask it to call somebody to set a calendar, like, block off something on my calendar or set an alarm.

22:20And I feel like over the last, like, two weeks, it’s actually gotten worse at doing those three things, which it wasn’t that great at doing to begin with.

22:29So I hope they come up with something because this is – I want to say it’s not their game to lose because I think these other guys are moving very quickly.

22:37But they’re in such a good spot because I will say, and I said this last week, is that if Apple comes up with some sort of solution, like, I trust Apple on the privacy side, right?

22:51And so – and I think a lot of people do, and so, like, they would get so much adoption simply because they are Apple and they have so much goodwill with consumers in terms of privacy and no hacks and stuff like that.

23:07Do you think – so interesting chat just came in.

23:10Life After Life just commented and said Apple will just win as they sell the product to run all these LLMs on.

23:18I mean, that seems to be almost like the winning case here where it’s like you just – you’re going to end up choosing what hardware hosts this.

23:27So, agreed.

23:29So, yes and no because, like, I’ll agree with that in the sense that – so I bought a Mac Mini, right?

23:35I have, like, my entire life on Apple, right, like on Apple products.

23:40But in a world where maybe, like, we’re going with less – more screenless devices, Meta is putting themselves in that spot, right?

23:50They’re putting themselves in a position that if there is a change in form factor, they’re going to be very quick to move, and they have been very quick to move in the sense that you have your little Tamagotchi keychain thing that will be out in time for holiday.

24:04And then in, what, I think a Q2 next year, they’re saying they’re going to come out with those basically meta AR glasses.

24:12And listen, if that’s, like, integrated with enough of my stuff, right, because it’s, like, when I look at, okay, what do I use this for?

24:20If it’s integrated, my most used social – I have two most used social media apps, right?

24:25One is Instagram. The other is X. Most people – like, we’re in crypto, so X is up there, but most people don’t use X.

24:32So for most people, it’s Instagram number one and then TikTok number two, right?

24:38And if you can integrate the hardware side seamlessly with your favorite social media app, I think you’re, like, in that position to dethrone Apple, unless Apple comes up with something out of nowhere, right?

24:54But, like, you know, it’s – they just move very slowly, and that’s – I think that’s the problem.

24:58I mean that – You know, to their detriment or – No, no, it’s not to their detriment. You could look at this on the iPad side.

25:05Apple was not the first mover into the tablet space.

25:09They were a year behind Android.

25:12You know, they were not the first into foldable phones.

25:15They were not the first into the HomePod and the, you know, the – even the wearable space.

25:21They weren’t first, too. But I think Apple’s positioning and what makes them such a great company is it will never put out a product that is half-baked.

25:31Sure, you could look at the Vision Pro and be like, well, that flopped.

25:34But when that came out, that was, like, here’s – if you did everything perfect on the hardware side and everything perfect on the software side, does the market want this?

25:43Obviously, the market, it was a little too early.

25:46I think they’re still pushing the technology hard into people.

25:49But they’re dominating – they still continue to dominate on everything else they do.

25:53And I think, you know, and I think there is a level of, like, they are behind because they’ve lost a lot of senior staff.

26:00This has been a conversation I’ve had with a lot of people over the last six months, which is a lot of the OGs that made Apple – the OG Apple we all know – are coming to the end of, you know, 20, 30-year tenures.

26:14And, you know, they’re tired.

26:16They’re like, look, I’ve been at this company doing this.

26:19I’ve got tens of millions of dollars in the bank account, and it’s time for the new guard.

26:24And we’re seeing the, you know, the new CEO come in.

26:27I think a lot of the senior research and development staff and engineering staff have moved on at this point.

26:33There are some growing pains at Apple that are really there.

26:36So not only is the entire software and hardware environment shifting on them, but they’re also internally dealing with a lot of turnover and changing of the guard.

26:46So will Apple be dethroned here?

26:50I doubt it, but they’re certainly probably at the weakest point, in my opinion, for dethroning, for somebody to come out and be like, yeah, we got it right on hardware.

26:58This is why OpenAI investing heavily into these humanoid companies is so interesting to me because they own the hardware side.

27:08And if they can start to pull in and put money into and splash it around and be like, hey, like, actually, we do have a lot of exposure here.

27:16And as we get bigger, we’re going to, like, absorb and bring them in.

27:18And that’s how you take a company that had no business competing on the physical side, starting to, like, compete with Apple.

27:29Look, I’m a mechanical engineer.

27:30So at heart, I will always side with the hardware guys, software people.

27:38You just type on a keyboard.

27:42I think that’s interesting because I think probably since the beginning of, like, the PC revolution, right, in, like, the 70s, 80s, up until probably now, like, there haven’t been many, like, let’s call them, like, garage tinkerers, right?

28:02In the sense that, like, all the tinkering, you know, went from, like, in the, whatever, 50s to 70s where you’re working on stuff in the garage and you’re working on your car or, like, something, you know, with your hands started becoming, like, working on, like, this little box with software.

28:20And that’s, like, where a lot of the tinkering economy went.

28:23But it’s interesting because I’ve had a couple of these conversations in real life and I’m also tempted to where I’m, like, oh, if I had the space for it, I would buy a 3D printer right now.

28:35And I would because of, like, like, I know that I can, like, I’m, like, oh, I want to make this.

28:41And I could tell AI, you know, I could work with, you know, one of the Frontier LLMs and I could be, like, hey, I want to make this, I don’t know, glass.

28:50I want to make my own custom cups at home and, like, mess around with it or whatever it is, right?

28:55Make these, you know, something with metal, right?

28:59And it’s, like, you can buy these 3D printers that are significantly cheaper than they were 10, 15 years ago.

29:06They’re still not the cheapest, but, like, you’re talking about, I’m talking about, like, I was talking to a buddy of mine who is doing something.

29:11He bought some metal 3D printers.

29:15And I think, like, 10 or 15 years ago, they used to cost, like, $250,000 to $500,000.

29:20And now they cost $15,000 to $35,000.

29:25So they’re so much cheaper.

29:26And he’s, like, yeah. And he’s, like, I’m just going to, like, mess around with it and see if I can make these, like, metal products with AI.

29:34And, like, just kind of be, like, yay. But the fascinating part about this is, so the manufacturing industry has been so, you know, so old.

29:47And it hasn’t innovated. What we’ve seen happen over the last few years is you’ve seen companies like SendCutSend.

29:55If anybody knows that company, they’re a company that you can literally make a CAD file of a metal bracket.

30:02Or, you know, a part that needs to be CNC’d or laser cut and literally just send them the file.

30:09And three days later, that physical product just shows up at your house.

30:13That, the like modernization of machine shops, that is starting to happen.

30:18Bamboo Labs, which is a, one of the larger 3D printer companies, they have allowed you to do very intricate prints at a very high fidelity.

30:28That has not existed for, I think it’s like $1,500 to $2,000.

30:31Um, and then additionally, you’re seeing a lot of the, uh, CAD companies like SolidWorks, um, start to come out with, and even Fusion 360, come out with ways to use AI alongside the modeling side, which is also accelerating this whole idea of like, all right, things that would have taken me hours to model.

30:52And then I would have had to go and find or have the own skillset to build this myself is just becoming, I have an idea, I want it to appear in front of me, as long as I have the capital.

31:02And this becomes the whole conversation point is, as long as I have the capital, anything I think up without real skillset up to a certain point, I can just make appear and happen now.

31:12And that is, I think the modern tinkering of like, can you be creative and the tools are there just to like make it appear.

31:20So, so it’s, it’s funny cause to, to your point of like, as long as you have the capital, cause I think that, I think what we’re probably going to start seeing, cause I was like thinking about it too, even like having this convo with, with a buddy of mine of being like, what would be pretty cool?

31:34Because like the 3d printer probably like these, these machines wouldn’t be used, like, let’s say I wanted to get one.

31:40I wouldn’t be using it 24 seven, right.

31:43At least at the beginning. Right. Unless I come up with like this cool business idea that requires, you know, a hundred close to a hundred percent utilization rate.

31:50But in reality, like at the beginning, it’s just going to be like, I’ll probably use it, whatever, a couple hours a week or whatever.

31:56So like my personal utilization rate would be so low, but what would be pretty cool is if I had this shared space where, where other people can come. Right. And it’s like a different version of coworking, right.

32:08Where coworking today is you show up with your laptop, you know, you can do all of your work on your laptop because most of it’s done on the computer, but we’re probably going to start seeing the pendulum swing back to being like, all right, well, I have a lot of these ideas to your point is like, you know, I have these on my laptop, but I need to make them.

32:25And so like, you can kind of create almost like this type of community and coworking space, very localized.

32:31Right. Cause I think what you’re talking about in college though.

32:36Probably a new version of college.

32:38Right. Like, you know, but like college where it’s, it’s focused on, you know, um, you know, a 3d printing lab or robotics, but this is like a physical lab.

32:49Cause like my college experience.

32:51So I’m not an engineer, right. I majored in finance. I didn’t spend any time working with my hands in a lab whatsoever.

32:58Right. But like, yeah, like it’s probably like, you probably did.

33:02Right. Because you are, this is the type of stuff in order to understand it, you need to mess with this stuff, um, see how it works and, and be, it has to be a very visceral feel.

33:11Uh, and I, I just think that maybe like, maybe that is like the new form of education on a go forward basis.

33:18Right. Where it’s not necessarily college, but maybe like some sort of apprenticeship where you learn by doing.

33:25And like you, it doesn’t cost you that much to like learn, right.

33:28Like to, to create a gadget with an LLM and then cat it up and then send it, you know, have the file and send it to a printer and then be able to get, to get the output right away.

33:39And then be like, Oh, like, let’s tinker on it.

33:41Like this wasn’t right, blah, blah, blah. And you don’t have like that, whatever, couple day delay.

33:45Yeah. I mean, like, like, I’m curious to pull this back into like, how do you make money off of this?

33:50Because I think that’s a lens that you and I, and the listeners probably are thinking like, okay, well, how do I profit?

33:56I, I don’t know even where like the education space has just been hit time and time again by AI.

34:03Like Chegg is a great example. It was at one point, like a billion dollar company is now worthless.

34:08Stack Overflow, which is also education based.

34:10Now, I mean, like it’s may as well be a ghost town.

34:13Um, it seems like the areas that you’re seeing take off are probably around like welding schools, um, electrical, like HVAC, like that seems to be like the only area.

34:29And that’s, AI is not helping that. It’s just like, there’s a flock to jobs that can’t be stolen by it.

34:34Well, I, so I think like that, I think they’re like similar, but slightly different.

34:39Right. Cause it’s like, again, as somebody that never really worked with like my hands doing like manual labor in, in that sense, I am now like being like, oh, if I want to make, you know, I bought this mic stand right last week, two weeks ago.

34:56But if I had like a 3d machine that could print it, like I, I would have like been like, Hey, let me make a mic stand and see if it works.

35:03It probably, you know, it probably isn’t as easy as it sounds just yet, but like, we’re going to get there.

35:08Right. Like, I think it’s like, um, I don’t know if you grew up watching the Jetsons, but they had like this machine where you kind of just tell it what you want and it would literally make it in like a minute.

35:17So you’re like, I want pizza, but you want like a turkey sandwich and it would make us eat what we wanted instantaneously.

35:24Now that’s like probably like a ways away, but this is the start of it.

35:28Right. Cause it started off with plastic.

35:29Now it’s like different types of metals.

35:31We’re close to that. Like ghost kitchens are, are like a major step towards like, I want this.

35:38And you know, it’s, it’s only 20 minutes away.

35:41It gets made. It shows up, even though there’s no, like, there is no sushi restaurant 20 minutes away from me, but like this kitchen that just does everything makes it appear.

35:49Um, I mean, look, I bet you, if you went and watched the Jetsons, you would be like, here’s where the world is going.

35:55Uh, and I don’t, I like, like idea wise, you probably get sparked by like, Oh, nobody’s done that yet.

36:01I should.

36:03Yeah, no, for sure. I mean, I, I think, uh, the time that the Jetsons were set in has already passed.

36:09So I think we basically failed our, our ancestors in terms of like having flying cars and rope vacuuming robots and food.

36:18That’s, you know, literally on demand, but, you know, I think we’re going towards that.

36:22And I think that to me, I think I find that kind of interesting because I think again, in this world where I’ve noticed that I myself and spending less time, uh, let’s say with people or interacting with people because you’re interacting with your AI and it’s giving you feedback or whatever.

36:39But these like being able to create these community spaces where, you know, it’s like, cause like I can go to a coffee shop right now and I can be like in a communal space in this third space.

36:50But I think like kind of having this third space where people can be like there, I forgot the name of this place, but there’s this place in Brooklyn, New York.

36:57That’s almost like this maker, like co-working workshop thing where like, let’s say, you know, I had space there, you had space there.

37:05Where we can utilize these machines, uh, as a, uh, as like, you know, being like, Hey, like I built this, I want to, you know, build it out, uh, print it out on a 3d printer and whatnot.

37:17And I think we’re probably going to start seeing more and more of that probably like smaller spaces.

37:21Cause that was like a huge, I think it was an old like Navy yard.

37:24Uh, and that was like a huge, huge space, but like, I do think on a go forward basis would probably start seeing more of this, what that means exactly in terms of like what the opportunity is.

37:34I just think it’s something that’s interesting.

37:37And I think that it’s going to allow people again, why have, why is it that you want more people to have access to this product?

37:46Because ultimately the more access you give people to these revolutionary technology, like it’s going to change people’s lives.

37:53Cause somebody’s, somebody’s going to have this idea that nobody else ever thought of all because they have access to this.

37:59And then it’ll make the world a better place just because they built it.

38:02Right. Yeah. Well, like it’s, it’s AI it’s blockchain.

38:06Uh, those are the two ones that are going to have radical change across the board on how we are live our lives and every, every day life functions.

38:16Um, so I think, look, we’re, if you’re losing this show, you’re well positioned, you’re in the right place.

38:21You have the, the right, uh, target on, on innovation and, and, you know, how things will play out here.

38:28Um, I certainly think we’re seeing both of them be utilized to like their, their actual potential at this point.

38:37Um, especially with, you know, and I did want to make sure we like mentioned this.

38:42Solana Robinhood base, the entire incumbent space right now, we’re trying to say like, all right, things have been done a certain way for the last hundred years on the financial system.

38:52Uh, we’re going to completely flip everything on their heads and we’re seeing the most change, the most disruption, uh, the most, well, why do we do it that way?

39:00Um, like happen and now you even have, and I love it that CTFC, the SEC stepping in and saying like, well, let’s just make, like, let’s force it.

39:12We’re going to make it like, make what we want to happen and how we want finance to be handled happen today.

39:17Um, instead of waiting for, you know, the larger incumbent Congress or the Senate, uh, Listen, I, and I think like to that point, right.

39:28Um, one is that’s probably, that’s more a function of the fact that clarity didn’t get passed.

39:33So they already knew that that wasn’t coming.

39:35So they kind of had their, their, probably their drafted rules, uh, already set because also, right.

39:41They were probably in, they were definitely in those conversations as well.

39:44Right. And a pining on that. So, but I, again, I do think to me, the most interesting part when I, when we talk about, let’s say like the overall tokenization trend from here is probably stocks, right.

39:58Tokenized stocks. And we call them RWAs, uh, but in reality, it’s just tokenized equity.

40:03Um, that’s, what’s made me really bullish on that space. And I feel like to your point is like, I think a lot of these guys realize this and what we saw over the last 10 years and still today, even over like tokenized dollars, right? Uh, and stable coins is now going to start happening with equities on a longer term basis. And it is the wild, wild west. It’s still such a nascent industry, right?

40:30To your point, you mentioned Solana, Robinhood, Base. Uh, I think of those three, I think Robinhood, uh, probably has the most mindshare just because Robin, like the Robinhood brand, uh, in terms of equity, but, you know, Solana has done a really good job in terms of volume. And I, I think Base is like a distant third. Uh, and what the, the one company I’ll put in there, uh, which we were talking about before the show is Kraken, right? Because even though, um, Kraken has been, let’s say quieter with regards to it, they, they do own the X stocks platform, which does do a ton of volume on Solana. And they are, I think number two issuer behind Ando, uh, in terms of tokenized stocks on chain. But I do think, uh, to me, it’s like right now it’s the, the main, the main horse races between Solana and Robinhood.

41:22But we’ll see, because I do think that like a lot of all the players understand what’s at stake in terms of long-term volumes. Cause you saw it happen, right? In the stable coin space, right? Tether number one, um, circle number two, in terms of like volumes on accepted worldwide basis, right? If somebody, if somebody, if you ask somebody to send you a stable coin payment, right? Like you’re like, give it to me in USDT or USDC, right?

41:51And people will be like, Oh, do you like, we’ll accept this. And I’d be like, no, like you just like it before you send it to me, transfer it over to one of those two that I know. And I trust. And then like, I can convert it into whatever I want. Right. And so I think the same type of thing is going to happen with, uh, equities.

42:08And again, this is kind of like my bull case for Quotron’s, uh, like of like a lot of asymmetric upside risk, uh, upside, uh, reward, uh, with very minimal downside risk. Cause I do think a lot of these platforms, obviously most of them are, I’d say private, and there’s no way to kind of express that, um, in a physical market or in a, in a liquid market.

42:30Um, I know there’s the backpack token, which is also, um, up there. I think it’s between them and X stocks on volume on Solana, but I’m not sure the backpack token, uh, full disclosure.

42:42I’m, I’m a seed investor in backpack, uh, from a couple of years ago, but I don’t think, I’m not exactly sure what kind of exposure the token itself gives you to like the fee revenue and generation.

42:54So I haven’t done that much, uh, looking into it, but I do think, again, I, I just think that this broader trend is at the beginning and it’s, it’s going to grow massively from here.

43:06Right. Yeah. Exposure of volume exposure of revenue that is, uh, you know, it should seem obvious, but it is not right. Like these are all things where like, yeah, duh. Like you would want, want to make sure the asset you have, uh, that your own has exposures capturing some of that in some way. Um, but there haven’t been many.

43:28And I think Quotron’s as, as, you know, you’ve kind of mentioned, and we said time and time in the show is set up perfectly where if things to play out the way that I at least envisioned them, Quotron should be getting a healthy inflow, um, have healthy exposure to one of the market leaders for, uh, tokenized equities, which is again, that’s, that’s where the industry is going.

43:49Everybody is fighting for it right now. Um, and it’s not something you can just spin up overnight.

43:55You need licensing, you need incredible infrastructure, the risk engines, you need to have the reputation and trust. Like it’s not a small feat. And there’s only a few companies that will be able to compete there. Um, yeah.

44:09So Kraken, Coinbase, Solana, Robinhood, uh, all fighting out for that. We’ll keep our eyes on it, uh, as it continues to play out. Um, yeah, man, I’m, I, I feel like more and more people have just been asking about stocks.

44:24Like I very rarely get asked about like crypto specific tokens besides, you know, like hype, right? Like it’s people, people were maturing maybe, uh, less new coins.

44:36Well, I think people are, no, I just think people, I mean, listen, the stock market’s been up and to the right, right? I mean, the stock market, it’s at all new all time highs, whereas Bitcoin’s still down, what? 40% from the highs.

44:47So, um, it’s creeping up. We’re almost at 90 K, right? Like, I know what I’m saying is like people, but that’s not the way retail works. Right. So like people are going to be really interested in whatever is really hot at the time. Right.

45:02So that’s why you’re getting asked about stocks because the stock market is that all stocks and Pokemon cards, man. I think you got a Pokemon card market is giving me.

45:11Dude. I saw something where I guess in July or June, some card sold for 80,000 and then it just sold like yesterday for 800,000. And I’m like, wow. I’m like, that’s pretty frothy.

45:24You know? And I got hit by somebody yesterday who’s like, oh, like, are you in Pokemon cards? I’m like, no. And they’re like, oh yeah, it’s like heating up. And I’m like, heating up is an understatement. I feel like it’s, it’s fully heated at this point.

45:36Well, I finally understand how people that weren’t in NFTs felt because I, I’m on the sidelines. Like I, I have a little exposure to the Pokemon market, but like for the most part, I’m like, yeah, I’m not fucking touching that 20 foot pole right now. And I’ve, you still got people being like, oh, we’re just getting started. And I’m, I’m like, this has to pop.

45:55Well, I mean, I, I did read a post yesterday about, you know, some guy that’s like, he, he’s a niche Pokemon dealer. So like, he’ll like deal in like really niche cards or people trying to complete sets or whatever. And he’s like, yeah, like the bid is like relentless and he doesn’t flag Coinbase per se, but just like, I think a lot of the gotcha platforms in general being like, yeah, like the, a lot of it is being driven by these digital gotcha platforms that have an insatiable demand for product and they need it obviously to fill their, their gotcha machines. And so that’s where you’re seeing probably a lot of these prices go parabolic again. I think probably like, you know, cards has actually been, been doing really, really well. Yep. Um, over the last few weeks, I think I saw it close to 30. Yeah. It’s at, it’s at 30 cents. Um, here, let me bring up the, uh, here we go. It’s at 30 cents. So it’s been, it’s back almost close to the, to the all time highs. So it’s been strong. Right. And, you know, I think the, that kind of just goes to show you like where, how strong, like the market’s been, uh, in general with regards to the, the Pokemon product. Right. And I think part of that was like, they announced, I think buy and burn and stuff like that. So that’s probably also getting that flywheel going as well.

47:26Well, I think, I think you also need to be kind of asking yourself, like, is the gotcha mechanic going to stay around? Right. Like what is the risk of like the gotcha mechanic, um, being, being like labeled as gambling by whether it’s, you know, the CTFC or whoever it might be and be like, actually, we are going to draw the line here and be like, that is, that is gambling.

47:51So, I mean, I guess like, to me, I think it’s really hard. I think the cat’s out of the bag. I think it’s really hard to put it back in because technically the gotcha sites are making their money on market making. Right. And so because of that, it’s not, it’s technically not gambling. Right. Cause the way they make their, cause the way, the reason why a casino is regulated as gambling, right.

48:17Is because there is a house edge. Sure. Whenever you put on a bet, there is an edge that the house has so that if you sat there for a limited amount of time, over time, you will lose money. Right. The way that these gotcha mechanics are set up.

48:31And I remember this cause I, when I first looked at it, I’m like, how are you not getting sued by every state’s attorney general? And the reason why is because when you rip a pack on, on one of these platforms, um, it is like it, you, it pays out true odds. Right. So there is no house edge.

48:49So that if you sat there for infinity, obviously there’s going to be variance with every pull, right? So it’s like, you could lose, you could win or whatever, but over time you should, if you spend a dollar, you shouldn’t make back that dollar. Now where they, they make their money is on the instant buyback and giving you instant liquidity. So they’re technically market making, right? So they’ll say, Hey, this is worth a hundred dollars. We’ll give it, we’ll buy it for $90. And then they make that 10%. And as a user, right, you’re sitting there and you’re like, okay, well, if I ripped this pack or if I bought it on eBay or if I ripped the pack, if I ripped this card and I wanted to sell it and I wanted to sell it on eBay, it would take whatever one or two weeks to sell it. Then, you know, I have to pay for shipping and then, you know, whatever, all, all the, all the hardships of doing stuff in the real world. And you’re like, all right, well, I’ll take a 10 or 15% haircut to get instantly instant liquidity. I’ll take it. Right. And so then I just think that the issue with this is like, if you’re going to make these gotcha mechanics illegal, then technically you also have to make loot boxes in video games, illegal. Right. And like, like EU has already done that though. They went after a, I think they went after a counter-strike.

50:05Who cares what the EU is doing? EU is like the world leader in regulation. It only matters what the US is doing, in my opinion. I really don’t care what the EU does because I just think that the EU is so far behind in terms of being competitive from a business perspective.

50:24that and also it’s like you like every company wants a US consumer, right? US consumers spend the most, you know, like, and so, yeah, like, I think that that’s the biggest issue with the EU, right? There’s, it’s just like a great place if you want to be regulated, like drift off into like, falling behind. Like, it feels like we trend towards that more and more every year where they’re just like becoming this weird society that like, we’ll just not have what everybody else has.

50:54I have, I mean, I guess I have a lot of opinions on that. But I think, I think Europe is a great place to go visit.

51:02Yeah, like that. And obviously, like, I think it’s just a great place to visit. I wouldn’t want to live there, personally.

51:08Great, great summer. Like, I think everybody, I think everybody says it, America to make your money, Europe to spend it. And I think that that makes sense, right? I just think that there’s not as much opportunity across continental Europe, the same way is that there’s in the United States.

51:24I have plenty of friends that have moved from Europe, and, and the UK to the States, and they’re like, dude, it’s like, it’s night and day of the difference, right?

51:34And so again, like, sure, you know, there is some sort of regulation coming out of it in Europe, but until you see it in the United States, and I think the problem is with seeing the United States is that these companies, like the video game companies, are so massive, and they generate so much revenue.

51:52At this point, that to put the cap back in the bag, like, I don’t know, I think, I think it’s like you, they would lose a ton of business, right?

52:00It’d be a big overhang that I don’t think a pro business administration or pro business government, which the US is more than Europe would really want to do.

52:12So I, that’s why I kind of think that like, the gotcha mechanic is really tough to put back in the bag, because also like, so like, I can make an argument for gotcha, like online, or like blockchain based gotchas, like you can provably, you can, you can prove that something was fair.

52:31But meanwhile, you have, you know, stories, I don’t, I like, I’m not that close to the collectibles market, but I’ve heard stories of like, people doing pack rips on whatnot, where basically like what, let’s say like, I’m an influencer on whatnot, and I do this live stream, I’ll buy like a bunch of cards, and I’ll put like one chase card in there, and then I’ll sell those packs.

52:52And whereas in let’s say, some like collectors crypt or courtyard or whatever, you get paid true odds, minus like whatever the the instant buyback is, unlike these whatnot pack ripping, like the odds are terrible, like you’re going to lose like 50, it’s like negative 50% EV because you don’t know, like how they’re packing it and like, you know what the odds are of that.

53:18So like you can say that like the digital version of it is actually more fair for consumers than whatever’s happening on these live streaming pack ripping stuff, right?

53:28So yeah, I think it’s like, it’s very tough.

53:32Like I think again, this is where I, in crypto, we’ve seen time and time again, where a lot of the really big money is made in the gray area before it becomes legal.

53:44And I think pack, these gotcha mechanics are in there, right?

53:48We saw that with stable coins. We obviously saw that with crypto assets in general, right?

53:53Like Ethereum, Solana, all these things that got classified as non-securities.

53:57And I think we’ll probably, I think the next big white space for that, not to bring it back to full circle moment, is probably tokenized equities, right?

54:06Where, again, it seems like we’re going towards some sort of regulated landscape for it, but it’s still going to take time and you just got to like move fast.

54:22And, you know, we saw the same thing with prediction markets, right?

54:25It’s the same type of thing, right? Yeah, yeah. I mean, prediction markets, that’s a whole nother conversation that I don’t think we have time for.

54:32But again, I will say the more, the more we talk about it, the more well positioned, I feel like OpenSea is to truly have a comeback moment and be a dominant player in this space.

54:46And a name that we mention every day, especially if the gotcha pack system, the collectible space continues to be on a heater, they’re well positioned as one of the only companies that, you know, if I were to go and be like, I want to start buying Pokemon cards today online, I’m almost certainly typing in OpenSea into the URL first before I go anywhere else.

55:09And that is a powerful consumer behavior.

55:12And I haven’t, I like, I don’t use OpenSea on like a daily basis.

55:15It’s just like, that is where I would be like, all right, yeah, I’ll go to OpenSea.

55:18I know they have the product.

55:19Right. Yeah. So, I mean, listen, I think it’ll be, it’ll be very interesting.

55:26I think like my mental framework on all of this at this point is it’s, if you view crypto, but just like stuff in general is like a gambling, a casino, right?

55:39You just need to pick your game of where you think you have like the best odds of winnings, right?

55:44So some people like the meme coins because you can like make a 10,000 X in an hour, but you can also lose everything in an hour, right?

55:51Some people want the gotcha because you can make a 5X on a spin, but you also won’t lose everything in one spin, right?

55:58You’ll lose some percentage of that slowly over time.

56:01So it’s like the same type of thing. You walk into a casino floor, you can play roulette, craps, blackjack slots, expensive slots, cheap slots, right?

56:09There’s, you know, Baccarat, like, you know, Casino War, like all these types of different games with different edges.

56:15And you kind of have to be the, find the one where you find the most entertainment and somewhat of an edge if you think you have one.

56:24Yeah.

56:25We will hopefully see that be more on the consumer trading side in crypto.

56:33Obviously, new coins have had their meta.

56:35I think we’re deep into the equities on chain side, but I feel like we are going to see even more happen alongside the pairing of equities.

56:43And especially as index and loot continue to push forward, we’re only seeing more appetite for it.

56:50I love to see that. I think we’re seeing more people bring money on chain to get exposure to equities that never would have been in the stock market before, which is a cool thing to see.

57:00And I also think that there’s a fueling system here, which is the validation of establishing yourself as a player in the space through verifiable on chain earnings, leaderboards, and P&L cards is only going to accelerate this.

57:20And while I do think there are harmful sides to this, which are like, you have people literally blindly just trusting another person’s word on the internet, I do think it’ll be a great thing.

57:32And it will only accelerate people wanting to be like, all right, I want to get into, I want to get into like trading stuff, like financially online, whether that is Pokemon cards or prediction markets, everybody will be doing it.

57:44And I think it will all flood to on chain.

57:47That is, that is the coolest part about it.

57:50So, yeah, I mean, I think it’ll, it’ll be exciting stuff.

57:55Obviously that’s why we’re here.

57:57And I think that’s why, you know, I think we have an edge.

58:01I’m looking forward to it.

58:04Of course. Well, look, if you guys have more questions, more topics you want us to go over, please shoot them to us.

58:10We’ll cover them on the next show. A shout out to all our viewers.

58:14Chat was going crazy today.

58:16Thank you for everybody that was chatting across all the platforms.

58:19Make sure you follow us here on X, YouTube, Instagram, TikTok.

58:25We are on every social media platform at this point.

58:27And we’ll catch you on Thursday, 1030 AM, same place, same show.

58:33We’ll see you then. Cheers, guys.