All Eyes on Macro, NVDA Buybacks, and Trading Updates
The calls
Every call on the show10 calls
26:05NVDALong“I bought NVIDIA, I started buying around like the 208 level, I still have my calls… I’m still long”$231.49−0.6%
“I bought NVIDIA, I started buying around like the 208 level, I still have my calls… I’m still long”
The host is long NVDA calls bought near 208, nothing has changed, and the buyback signals management sees the stock as cheap with good cash flow visibility.
27:17NBISLong“Nvidia, Nebbius and Micron are kind of like my three horsemen in the AI trade for right now that, you know, I’m just I have long term calls”$244.85−9.5%
“Nvidia, Nebbius and Micron are kind of like my three horsemen in the AI trade for right now that, you know, I’m just I have long term calls”
Nebius is one of the host's three core AI holdings, held through long-term calls expected to rerate higher.
34:10MULong“I want to buy calls into the print… I’ll probably buy some short term calls, and then maybe like bigger size and some longer term calls”$1,078−4.6%
“I want to buy calls into the print… I’ll probably buy some short term calls, and then maybe like bigger size and some longer term calls”
The host holds long-term Micron calls, plans to add short-dated calls into tomorrow's earnings, and thinks a buyback is possible but under 20% likely.
45:31AAPLLong“I think this is Apple’s game to lose”$332.48+1.4%
“I think this is Apple’s game to lose”
Apple is best placed to win privacy-first edge compute given its device ecosystem and user trust.
46:38HYPELong“I think the advisory from the SEC on an STFC on token buybacks is a very strong case for hyper liquid… Nobody has a builder program like hyper liquid”$87.18−0.4%
“I think the advisory from the SEC on an STFC on token buybacks is a very strong case for hyper liquid… Nobody has a builder program like hyper liquid”
Hyperliquid is favored for its revenue, buybacks, regulatory alignment and distribution, though the host is waiting for the token unlock to stabilize.
48:00PONSLong“Another bullish unlock on Pons, another one that has been a very, a very notable part of this revenue conversation”$0.5399−35.9%
“Another bullish unlock on Pons, another one that has been a very, a very notable part of this revenue conversation”
Pons is cited as one of the main revenue-generating tokens with strong distribution.
49:08PUMPLong“I’m expecting more out of this company… pump also nobody has a distribution marketing campaign”$0.00575−1.8%
“I’m expecting more out of this company… pump also nobody has a distribution marketing campaign”
Pump.fun is bullish for its distribution, constant product experimentation and revenue, and its chart is strong.
52:21BTCShort“Gold, which broke down yesterday. That’s why I put on my Bitcoin short. Yesterday, I covered it. I covered it this morning”$83,160−0.7%
“Gold, which broke down yesterday. That’s why I put on my Bitcoin short. Yesterday, I covered it. I covered it this morning”
The host shorted Bitcoin after gold broke down, covered this morning near the high, and may re-enter since BTC trades with gold as a liquidity trade.
53:54BTCShort“I don’t think like seven to 76 K region is like totally out of the question”$83,197−0.7%
“I don’t think like seven to 76 K region is like totally out of the question”
The host sees a possible gap-fill lower toward 76K for Bitcoin if gold keeps selling off.
59:03COINAvoid“I disagree with the reaction of everybody thinking this is going to be a massive profit and revenue center for Coinbase”$190.79+4.0%
“I disagree with the reaction of everybody thinking this is going to be a massive profit and revenue center for Coinbase”
The co-host doubts Coinbase's new on-chain collectible cards will be a big revenue driver since its users come to trade crypto and it lacks the marketing and distribution.
Also came up
1:14ANTHROPICMention“Anthropic announcing IPO intentions here”$1,070
“Anthropic announcing IPO intentions here”
Anthropic filed IPO documents; the hosts discuss the financials (about $4B revenue, $8B loss in 2025, roughly a 20x revenue multiple at a $2T valuation).
1:36BTCMention“Bitcoin, which is around $83,000 right now, could have a move up towards 87 or be flirting with the $80,000 floor.”$83,965
“Bitcoin, which is around $83,000 right now, could have a move up towards 87 or be flirting with the $80,000 floor.”
Intro frames the possible Bitcoin range ahead of the CPI report.
5:32METAMention“Metas move into their little key chain is probably their most impactful hardware launch”$722.38
“Metas move into their little key chain is probably their most impactful hardware launch”
Meta's keychain voice device is seen as an impactful hardware launch toward distributed, voice-first AI interfaces.
20:36NVDAMention“The video announcing a massive, I mean like, 130 to $100 billion buyback program”$231.39
“The video announcing a massive, I mean like, 130 to $100 billion buyback program”
NVIDIA announced a large buyback program, a $250B total with roughly $125B added.
33:26METAMention“Basically, like off the lows, it’s up almost it looks like 50%, right in the last month and a half”$721.96
“Basically, like off the lows, it’s up almost it looks like 50%, right in the last month and a half”
Meta is down on the day after a roughly 50% rally from the lows, with digestion and profit-taking.
48:35CARDSMention“I want to talk about was cards, which is collector’s crypt. All these companies have great volume”$0.2183
“I want to talk about was cards, which is collector’s crypt. All these companies have great volume”
Cards (Collector Crypt) is listed among crypto projects with real revenue and volume.
49:27STONKMention“When you think about copies like stonk fun, you really have to understand distributions, the end game”$0.2483
“When you think about copies like stonk fun, you really have to understand distributions, the end game”
Stonk is cited as a copycat launchpad where distribution decides the winner.
56:21SOLMention“Solana has finally found a way to bring on more equity exposure than Robin Hood”$118.10
“Solana has finally found a way to bring on more equity exposure than Robin Hood”
Solana is expanding on-chain equities to defend its consumer retail trading position against Robinhood.
56:21HOODMention“A huge contestant to the Robin Hood on chain equities market”$115.19
“A huge contestant to the Robin Hood on chain equities market”
Robinhood's on-chain equities push is competing with Solana for tokenized stock trading.
59:30FWAMention“FWA is a great example of this. Look at all the money they generate, all the volume they generate.”$0.0168
“FWA is a great example of this. Look at all the money they generate, all the volume they generate.”
FWA is cited as an example of how much revenue and volume gacha mechanics generate.
Pulled from the episode automatically and priced by Indeix at the moment it was said. Not investment advice.
Transcript
What is up, everybody? Welcome back to another episode of Full Port. We’re so happy to be here.
We’ve got a big show today, Trump rejecting the ceasefire with Iran.
We’ve got MongoDB CEO getting sniped by Meta.
We’ve got craziness in the AI sector with OpenAI Dev Day, Anthropic announcing IPO intentions here, as well as even some outages on Anthropic’s side this morning that have led to even G and I discussing some of the impacts of being so reliant on this stuff.
And with CPE, on Wednesday, all eyes are on what majors are going to do, especially Bitcoin, which is around $83,000 right now, could have a move up towards 87 or be flirting with the $80,000 floor.
Lots to go over. G, how are we doing this morning?
Doing good. I feel like there’s a ton of AI news out over the last 24 hours, 36 hours.
So I’m excited to kind of delve into that. I think I want to start where we were talking about right before the show started about productivity. Yeah.
Of how, you know, I know I’ve experienced this for myself last week.
I experienced it a lot when I run out of credits, probably less so now.
But I guess like it’s give or take because now it’s more AI is super ingrained in my workflows.
So when AI goes down, because I think what sparked it was you said, oh, it looks like Claude might be down right now or or Anthropic might be down.
Correct. And you’re like, well, I can’t do anything now until, you know, services back up.
And I was like, yeah, like I get the same thing, right?
Like last week I ran out of I maxed out my rock bot plan and I had to wait like three and a half hours before I could like do anything.
And like I was doing stuff here and there with the other AI platforms.
But I think to me, one of the interesting things about it is that I realized that like, as much as I’m trying to keep sovereignty over like, let’s say, like my brain and all of my information, I have stuff like I think by using agents, it just making it so much harder.
It makes it harder, I think, to kind of be like, hey, take out this model and put in this model, because like an agent that I’ve been working on with rock bot, I like I need to make sure that it’s saving stuff so that I can then work on it with like another AI agent.
There’s trouble you’ve been going from chat to chat within, you know, let’s take Claude for this example, like, being like, hey, can you take the current chat that we have, create a prompt to continue this and another one, I’m going to like fork it off. You even run into problems there where it’s all under the same ecosystem and roof, but context is lost. And yeah, I mean, I know this morning with this going down right before the show, stuff that we needed for the show, unable to go. And I am sure as hell not going to be opening up, you know, cursor and doing this manually. It’s not happening.
Yeah, no, for sure. So I think that like, I think it’s just interesting, it’s probably like new, I the way I’ve been trying to frame it in my head is it’s just like, this is the universe telling me to like go outside and touch grass for a little bit or do something else, you know, and just like, hey, like, enjoy life for a little bit, because I think, ultimately, at the end of the day, like, that’s kind of what you want, right? Like, it’s like the human experience, like, be let the human experience be the human experience.
And so it’s like, if you can utilize tech to increase your productivity, and to let’s say, spend less time in front of the screen, like, I think I’m I don’t know about you, but I started to become more and more I haven’t done it yet, where, but I’ve been more and more interested now that these chat models are like voice models are starting to get good enough, where you can have conversations and be like, do this. And then like, I’m talking to it, it’s giving me feedback. And then I’m like, all right, cool, like, I’m gonna go for a walk, and then I can like check on it in the middle of a walk. And I don’t even need access to a screen. And I think right now, like, yeah, I’m, I’m used to having access to a screen, because that’s the only way you could interface with computers up until now, right? Like the entire like the entirety of computers you needed to like, see was on the screen. But like, maybe the next evolution of that is like, hey, like, I don’t need to see the spreadsheet, I just need you to tell me how much I spent on Uber this month. Right. And this is this is why I think metas move into their little key chain is probably their most impactful hardware launch and one of the most impactful hardware launches that we’ve seen across the entire tech space
recently. You can see people are obviously moving towards the glasses space. But this is really meta signaling of saying, look, you don’t even need you don’t even need like a pop up interface, you don’t need to have like music or really, you just need a microphone. And like, cool, that’s it. And everything else will happen for you. And that is, I think, moving to this even more edge case of, like, when you walk in your and obviously, we’ll see everybody compete for the home technology space. And I think Apple set up quite well here. But when you walk into your bathroom, and you’re sitting there like brushing your teeth, and you’re like, Oh, like, I need, I need to do this. And you have a HomePod sitting there, you can just be like, Hey, can you do that? And it just happens. And it’s all universal. And as a matter of you get in your car, what you’re doing, it just leads into more hardware, more memory, more compute, more devices. Because now it is so seamless. And it’s so distributed, that it’s not just a phone in your hand. And that that was the primary for the last decade has been the phone that has been the primary operating interface for all technology, everything you do. And I think the next one is, it’s a bit distributed, in my opinion,
that’s, that’s, I think that it’s kind of like, the way Iron Man interacts with Jarvis, right?
It’s like, Hey, tell me how far how many miles away is whatever that target, like whatever, whatever it is that he’s, he’s doing in like Jarvis, like computes it in real time, and then we’ll like bring up a map if he wants it, right. So to your point, I think it’s like, you know, the I’m very interested in what what meta is working on with that little key chain. And maybe it is that the thing like, like I said, like, I’ve been utilizing it more, I think now on like the non coding stuff, and more is almost like an assistant. And one of those things is like, you know, kind of like tracking my spending more, and like itemizing, you know, what’s personal, what’s business and like, all this stuff, which is stuff that like, I’ve hated to do my entire life, I’ve never liked doing it. And now like, I set up a thing, I’m like, I went through like all my transactions, it did everything. And then now on like a weekly basis, I have like, like, I am like, hey, let’s set up a 15 minute window, where I literally just, you know, you walk through the transactions for the week, you tell you asked me if it’s business or personal, I tell you because like, it’s much easier to remember something from last week than from, you know, 16 months ago,
when I’m like, oh, yeah, like, I gotta, I gotta send this to my accountant. So I just think I think it’s like stuff like that, where I’m just like, oh, yeah, like, I know there’s like a bookkeeping ledger and everything on like a site and a file that lives somewhere. But literally, like on a weekly basis is just like, hey, this dinner, is it business or personal? And I’m like, Oh, yeah, that was personal, right? And like, I just think like, that’s probably the next evolution where I’m like, Oh, yeah, I don’t need to see my ledger of like, expenses and income on a daily or weekly basis, I just need to know, Oh, what is the trend, give me an analysis, and I want to double click on it, then we can go into those numbers. I think that’s really cool.
And I think we’re gonna see more and more of that.
Again, I think the same stuff we’ve been saying on the show for the last two months.
And I think we more talk about this at this point of like, hey, if you don’t see it happening, you need to probably take a step back and understand a lot of this is just becoming more and more ingrained. And it’s time to kind of I like to think on like the horizon, like what’s what’s coming if this is the early innings. And I think I think it’ll be crazier than even you and I expect at this point. You know, look, AI, obviously, big topic, we’re jumping right into it.
Open AI, as you mentioned, Dev Day, so we’ll probably have big announcements coming out of that camp. I think before that, I think like, I think that’s like really big. I want I want to highlight also, I think they said something like they’re making like 20 plus announcements at Dev Day today. So I think that’s gonna be really interesting. They I saw we were talking about right before the show, they kind of have their answer to MetaMuse and Grokbot that’s coming out, which I find interesting because like I find myself using the chat GBT app a lot more, which I think is very cool. So yeah, like I’m very interested to see like all the stuff that’s coming out from there. But like, I think more importantly than that, the biggest headline overnight was anthropic filing for their IPO, or you know, releasing their docs.
And because that’s, I think been obviously the hottest topic of the last like three to six months of when these companies are going to file for their IPO, when they do file for their IPO, what are the financials that we look at. And so I think to me, like some of the key things that came out was one is in 2025. I think they reported revs of $4 billion and a loss of $8 billion, which not not great, right? Obviously, because like, I think people have been worried about, you know, how much does the revenue cost them? But I don’t think I saw any numbers for 2026. And I know people have been saying that anthropics going to expect it to make between 100 and 110 billion this year. So that puts you know, that 2 trillion at a 20x revenue multiple.
Now, what does that mean on profitability? I don’t know.
Yeah, you’re leaving out the big P big discussion on both of the big labs right now.
Yeah. And so I think that’s, you know, people are going to be extrapolating that out. I think one of the other big numbers that people were highlighting was I think it’s $518 billion of committed CapEx spend over the next few years. So, you know, where are they going to get that money?
Yeah, where’s that coming? Right. That’s, that’s like, I think the big question. But I think to that point, you know, right again, this morning, I think an hour ago, or maybe two hours ago, open AI came out saying that the $200 pro model is going to get like half, they’re basically cutting usage in half. Right.
Whereas like, if you compare it to API usage, it’s going to get cut in half. So what does that tell you is that one, we’re compute constrained, you know, I know for the last like nine months since the beginning of the year, I remember frantically trying to use all these models as much as possible, because it’s like the cheapest that it’s going to be because it’s fully subsidized by VCs. And they’re trying to win market share. But then at some point, they have to focus on profitability. And when they focus on profitability, obviously, the price of compute goes up. And so it’s no longer, oh, you can like one shot, but it’s not, you know, GTA six for, you know, $35. It’s like, oh, yeah, you did one shot it.
But maybe it’s like, it’s going to cost you whatever, $500. Not like it’s still incredibly cheap compared to how much it would cost you without using AI. But like, just like the cost of AI in general will be going higher from here, probably the lower because now these companies are public. But it can’t like, here’s the thing, like, it’s not even a profitability question. It is, I always come back to AI is very comparable to the drug dealer, right? The first hit is always free.
And they and that’s how they started, right? Like, they they were like, yo, use it for free, go and do your stuff. And everybody’s like, Whoa, can I get some more of this? Can I get some more powerful stuff? And then they started charging that like, oh, we have a pro plan, we have a max plan. Oh, you want to use API’s and you know, spend $80,000 a month on compute, sick, come on over, let’s do it. And, you know, even with this, and I have this damn Claude status page up right now, elevated errors on cloud.ai. I can’t do anything right now.
I am so hooked on, on this service. And it runs my life. It runs, you know, think about the companies right now, think about the tech companies right now, that their stack is built off of in dropping that for the last 40 minutes or 30 minutes, they have done probably nothing.
They are all probably in slack, sending memes to each other, they’re probably all getting coffee.
Like, this is the level of dependency we have right now. And when you have that level of dependency, and there’s that price, price, I don’t know, would it be price elasticity, like, you can, you can charge, you can 10x the price and I would still be like, all right, like, I mean, I guess, I guess I have to like, pay here, I have to go somewhere else, but like, venue, you know, everybody’s going to be increasing their prices. So, you know, number go up across the board here. You know, I think that meme of like, from Tyrone Biggins from the Chappelle show when that’s when he plays this, this crack head.
Oh, yeah, he’s like, got any more of the, what is my turn, Joe Rogan? And like, yeah, it just like, that’s basically what we’re where we’re at, right? It’s, you know, I, I literally have no, my productivity like zeros out when I run out of credits. And like, there is, you know, and up, there is probably some sort of upper bound that I’ll be willing to pay. But like, it just, it’s still so much cheaper than, you know, having like a human in the loop or whatever, as long as it’s getting the majority of things done. So yeah, I think it’s going to be really interesting with, you know, people’s analysis of the anthropic IPO. I know, like the headlines, I think more interestingly, what I shared this headline with you, I actually read this thing last night, I didn’t know how on screen. Yeah, give me a second. Let me let me put up the link.
I literally had to ask rock. If this was real, that we have it up on the screen.
And graphics IPO plan includes new founder LLC to keep control of its quote unquote, low ego truth seeking environment. And that’s from the IPO finally, and I thought it was a troll.
So I literally asked rock, like right before we started the show, I was like, is this a real headline or not? And I just think I mean, I think we all we all see the irony of this is that it’s not a low ego truth seeking, like, model, right? Like, I think people keep on talking about how one anthropic like Dario has come off is very not trustworthy, kind of like, hey, we’re smarter than you. So you don’t it’s not you know, you don’t want to run this like trust us to run this for you. And he’s ended up on SNL as a skit at this point. Like that is that’s that’s it was was pretty and I feel like you got to be pretty bad if you are left wing and SNL is, you know, trolling you, right? Like, that’s that’s pretty hard. That’s pretty hard to get SNL to troll you. If you’re left of this is all part of Grox, or not, this is all part of entropics model for marketing that was like, look, we push them far enough off the left end here, we’ll get free marketing from SNL. And they’ll start meeting him and more people know about us.
It’s it’ll be a great marketing campaign, trust me. Yeah, so I don’t know. I you know, we I listen, they have they have Einstein level genius models that I’m sure they’re running through this.
And the fact that open AI is kind of doing something similar means that they’re probably aligned in how and how they see this playing out. But I don’t know, I think like as a human reading this low ego, true seeking environment, it’s like, I’m like, wow, like you guys are the exact opposite of that. Like, you must think we’re, we’re really dumb in order to be eating that up. Right. And so because like, I think even like for I’m super curious, like when I look for, for you guys, like, I’m like, oh, you’re not allowed to view this, or you’re not allowed, you shouldn’t be asking these types of questions, right? And I’m like, yeah, well, I have no malicious intent behind it. So like, what like, I want information, I want the truth. And so I just think that’s pretty funny. You know, and so we’ll see what what I think the reaction is over the next like obviously the most anticipated IPO of the back half of the year, and open AI is probably coming early next year. But I think like the big question is, people are going to be wondering, where is that capex capital going to be coming from? But again, people were also asking this question at the end of last year, in the middle of last year, when Sam said, signed all those massive
compute deals. And people were asking the same types of questions. And it turns out that Sam should assign more compute deals, because like, we’re so compute constrained, right? Like, I think that’s the one thing that all the AI models frontier models have been telling us is that, oh, our revenue would be higher, except for the fact that we don’t have enough compute.
Right. So yeah, you know, at some point, though, like that question is, is very real. And it will catch up. I have a feeling at some point, not seeing it’s now.
But, you know, look, I think there’s no slowing of AI in our eyes for the time being. So let the party roll on. I love it. Listen, maybe, maybe open AI dev day comes out with like some new crazy announcement. We’re like, Oh, my god, because it’s I think there’s always that like next where people like, Oh, well, how much better is it going to get? Right. And now, all of a sudden, now agents are starting to proliferate. And now people are gonna be like, Oh, well, you know, now I have an AI that like books my flights, what like what else is it going to do? And then there’s going to be some evolution of it with you like, Oh, wow, I didn’t even think about that. Right.
Without a question, without a question. But, you know, also on top of, you know, the big labs here, we have a massive attention onto all the companies that are supporting both of these labs, the two big ones on our radar right now, and the video announcing a massive, I mean, like, 130 to $100 billion buyback program. Yeah, I think so I think they I think it’s a $250 billion in total. And I think they increased it by I think, like, one, 125 something like that. Yeah, okay.
And then the secondary one being micron as well, which we’ll get to. But the video this buyback program. NVIDIA kind of just basically like what saying like, Hey, the green, the green days are ahead of us, and we’re going to do whatever it takes to keep, again, keep the music going.
So so yeah, I want to I want to talk about that. I think that it’s funny, because like, I tweeted about it yesterday, I think this has been for me, one of the upcoming catalysts that I’ve been looking forward to. I think Micron is also on the table for this. I don’t know if they’re going to announce it tomorrow with earnings, but I think it’s coming, like some sort of accelerated share repurchase program or some sort of share repurchase program that I mean, the stock at some point, if your management, you’re like our stock is too cheap, that the best use of capital at some point, right? Because what is a stock buyback, right? You’re basically saying that the stock is too cheap. And it’s so cheap, that one of the best uses of capital is to invest it into your own stock. Now, I think the interesting thing with NVIDIA, I think over the last couple quarters, and you can kind of see it in the chart, is that they’ve been like investing so much back into the space, right? And like, they’re like, because of that, like they haven’t invested it into stock, right? And so you kind of see that’s why like, the stock has kind of been, you know, it’s been pretty range bound since October ish, right? Really, since probably
July of last year, where it’s like, it’s in the upper half of that range, but it hasn’t had like an explosive up move like it did starting in 2023. Right. And so I think basically, right, as an investor, great, I think that like, I want to be seeing this, I do think that you know, if they’re producing money hand over fist, largest company in the world, they’re still investing into the sector to help grow the sector, right? They just bought Hugging Face a couple weeks ago, a couple months ago, and they’re still massively investing and supporting Neoclouds and, and they just they they, you know, and to Jensen’s credit, he’s wanted more, he could have just like sold to hyperscalers really early on, but he wanted to build a competitive ecosystem, because he understood that he would end up getting squeezed if he just built to like this smoke, small cohort. So I think one is it shows you that you know, they feel confident in the cash generation that’s coming down the road. And they also feel the stock is really cheap. And I think even though you look at this chart, and it’s up and to the right for the last couple of years, on a PE basis, it’s gotten to be pretty cheap, especially compared to, you know, a bunch of other stuff that’s been out
there. So I think it’s super positive. I think we’re probably going to see this from the memory makers as well. Yeah, especially as they have more and more visibility into things. Like I said, I think like this could be like an upside surprise for Micron into numbers tomorrow, although like, I’d say it’s probably pretty low, I’d say it’s probably under 20%. If they announce something like this, maybe they want one more quarter of visibility before announcing something like that. But I will say to play devil’s advocate on the flip side of this Nvidia is you know, it’s funny, because like I tweeted it out yesterday when I read it. And people are like, Oh, exit liquidity, it’s because the big shareholders want, you know, to get out or whatever. And it’s like, well, this isn’t crypto, right? So this is like, you have to like, take that framework out. Because one is, they’re generate, they’re real businesses. I mean, like, you know, in h 100, or sorry, Reuben, a very Reuben, I think is going for $4 million for one very Reuben rack, right? I think that’s like the price. And so they’re selling tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of these, you know what I mean? Like, it’s it’s crazy. And so they’re generating a ton of cash. At some point,
they can’t keep reinvesting everything back into the AI space. And they’re going to just, you know, feed themselves. So but I will say on the flip side, because I always like to kind of steal me on the other side of like, what is you know, what are the possible bear cases? Like, to me, the question becomes is like, wow, does that mean they don’t see as much good opportunity to get a ROI on their capital invested out there, right? So I’m sure we’re going to start seeing that pop up from the bears like I’m sure Barry is going to write that probably the next 10 to 14 days is like, if they’re doing a buyback, that means there’s no return on invested capital that they see. And that’s why they’re buying back their shares, blah, blah, blah, whatever he’s going to do in frame it as like, people argument. But I do think it’s it’s ultimately bullish, because that means they see the stock is very cheap. And they have good view into cash flows, at least for probably the next, you know, two to six quarters. And you know, it’s reflected in management decisions there. Okay, so you laid out the bull case, the bear case, what are you actually doing, though? Like, what is what is your trade position?
I mean, I’m still, you know, I bought, I bought NVIDIA, I started buying around like the 208 level, I still have my calls, right? Like, I don’t think anything’s changed, right? We’re back up near all time highs, right around kind of where we peaked in May, but then also like after numbers a couple weeks ago, and, you know, I think above that 235 ish, definitely above 240. But like 235 ish level, you know, hopefully, that looks like it’s starting like the next up move the next leg higher. But like, I’m still long, I like for me, like nothing’s changed. Nothing’s changed in the thesis, right? Like part of it was like, part of my thesis for for wanting to buy it. And also, Micron, I think falls, you know, memory falls in the same bucket, like the PES on this, these stocks are so low, that at some point, they’re going to be like, Oh, the best use of our capital is to just buy our own stock. You know, if like Wall Street doesn’t believe us, if investors don’t believe us, and we have the most visibility into it, like, we’ll just buy back the stock, right? Like, it’s, it’s the best use of our capital at that point. So I’m still long, I still have my my calls, I haven’t sold anything, haven’t traded around it. You know,
Nvidia, Nebbius and Micron are kind of like my three horsemen in the AI trade for right now that, you know, I’m just I have long term calls that I expect to start rerating higher, like on the next move higher, right? Yeah, look, I’m on the same boat. I think if I keep looking around the space space x another hardware and software company within that sector that very bullish on getting a lot of you know, a lot of news out of that camp for what they’re doing.
And I think additionally, it would be irresponsible of us not to bring up meta as well.
As we mentioned beginning to show making moves in stealing, actually stealing the MongoDB CEO away from MongoDB shares falling at Mongo, I think like 15% 20%. I think it felt more yesterday. I think it felt like 25% yesterday. Yeah, so a real hit. And this is meta, basically saying like, hey, we are we are going after the AI sector in the most serious fashion where we’re coaching CEOs to come lead to I think this was interesting. I didn’t admittedly I didn’t look that much into it yesterday. But I thought it was interesting for a couple things. A couple reasons. One is, I thought it was interesting that it was effective immediately. Right? And it wasn’t like, oh, you know, not even like two weeks notice it was effective immediately. So and it was done right before investor day, which is today, which investor days are usually scheduled to kind of increase investor confidence, you give long term projections for the company. So the fact that the CEO left the day before investor day is pretty wild. And then also, I think it kind of shows you how intense this race is that the CEO of MongoDB like, I don’t know how much he makes, but like, let’s say he’s escaped the permanent underclass, right? He’s running a multi billion
dollar public company. I’m sure he has a great pay package. And if he’s been doing it for any amount of time, I’m sure he’s amassed significant wealth up until this point. So then why would he do this, right? And so it’s like, because it’s like, it’s not, you know, to add necessarily, I don’t think at least I don’t know the guy personally, but it’s not, it’s probably not to add more money to his net worth, because he probably has a really significant amount of it already.
And so it’s more like, okay. And like, we I think we’ve seen this among all the AI labs up until this point, where you see guys jumping from lab to lab. And it’s again, not because of pay, right? Because like, they’re gonna make the money, the money’s good. And to 11 figures at any either of those labs, it’s probably because they’re chasing AGI and ASI, and they want to win, and they want to be on that winning team. So the fact that like, the MongoDB CEO left effective immediately, and wasn’t even willing to be like, Oh, it’ll be over the next six to 12 months, because I want to help, you know, for a smooth transition, this and that means that like, he probably gets he understands that sense of urgency. And this race is probably like much closer than we think at the frontier, right? And I just think it’s really interesting. And again, we don’t have all the information here. I’m sure, you know, publications like the Wall Street Journal and the information will come out with more, more stuff over the next couple days and weeks as to his reasons for abrupt departure. But I just think from the outside, looking in, I just thought that that was the most interesting part of it, not necessarily that I got poached, because guess what, like, you know, good talents
are gonna always get poached. But I think it was that he left immediately, and was just kind of like, you know, like, almost to the point where it’s like, hey, reputation be damned. I need to be a part of this team immediately, because like, listen, the stock’s down 20% overnight. I’m sure he’s got a lot of like, you know, hedge fund managers and large pension funds calling him being like, Yo, what the fuck? Like, you just fucked me. Like, no, like, people millions, tens of billions, billions, billions of dollars, billions of dollars. And so, yeah, I just I just think that that to me is the most interesting part of it. Like, we’ve seen it within the AI space at the frontier labs. And now we’re starting to see it, you know, like in tech, right? Because MongoDB is a like, a software database, enterprise software database company, right? And so nothing, there’s nothing truly exciting happening at MongoDB. I think that’s, you know, to your point, right?
Like, meta rolled out, probably quite the offer from a like, emotional rewards perspective, like you get to work on the coolest stuff at one of the biggest companies impacting truly everybody in a different way instead of, all right, databases.
Yeah, I mean, we’re probably oversimplifying it. But yeah, for sure.
No, no, no, I don’t know. Gee, like databases are pretty boring.
I mean, I’m sure they are. I’ve never, I can honestly say I’m 100% oversimplifying what’s going on at MongoDB. And I’m sure I pissed off somebody who’s listening. But, you know, look, I certainly understand the move. And we’ll see how it plays out.
I know meta is down a little bit on the day. I think it originally popped just a tad.
Yesterday, maybe.
Well, it sold off yesterday. So I like I think also part of the two it’s been it’s been on a wild run since news got released. And so I think part of it’s like, digesting that move, you know, basically, like off the lows, it’s up almost it looks like 50%, right in the last month and a half. Right. So, you know, I think there’s some digestion there. People trying to figure out, or, you know, lock in gains and stuff like that. I think to me, the most interesting thing we have coming up, and we alluded to it was Micron, Micron numbers. Tomorrow, I think I believe tomorrow night after the close. This chart looks really nice. You know, this was here’s earnings report two quarters ago earnings report this quarter, this last quarter was right here, mark the high had a strong pullback, wherever you will was saying, HBM peaked, or memory peaked, has been forming this nice little cup, you know, support at this trend line here that I had to redraw a couple times till it finally worked. And but yeah, I mean, I this looks like a strong setup. Like, again, I know I’ve been saying it since last week that I want to buy calls into the print. I’m actually probably like, I’m probably gonna do some more reading onto it tonight and tomorrow to know a
little more on the setup. But like, I think still from everything I read, like people are either like crazy bullish or crazy bearish, right? On memory, because like every other I feel like every Friday night after the close, something will pop up on x of how like, memory is no longer needed, or there’s going to be like memory compression of like 99%. And like, in videos taking HBM out of their chips and like all like this crazy, like negative bear porn stuff on the weekends. And then like, we will we open up on Monday. And it’s like, yeah, flat, right? And so I do think that, you know, people are at this point are waiting, but this, this setup looks good to me, you know, I think then I feel good in my long term calls. So like, I’m not going to be doing anything there. But I’ll probably buy some short term calls, and then maybe like bigger size and some longer term calls so that if maybe there’s a gap down or whatever, as long as I feel the story doesn’t change, I would add to it and and wait for you know, wait for for it to the story to catch up to the numbers, right? And so yeah, I’m still bullish on it. I think that you know, I still think that like the street is under there. They’re under waiting the power of agents
and what that means for memory impact. And I think like, again, this is where utilizing stuff really puts you at an advantage because you understand what’s going on here, right? And the things that make like even like MetaMuse, right? Not frontier model. The thing that makes it so powerful is that it knows you. And people are like, Yeah, I love it because it knows me, you know, like, I give it like my credit card info, and it books up for me and this and that.
And that’s what makes it so powerful. So like, in order to do that, you need memory.
Yep. And I keep going back to it’s the memory machine. That is, that’s the point of what AI is at the end of the day. I really feel like there’s a level of like understanding the decentralized nature of Muse, like nobody, nobody’s buying another device to use it.
And it’s not being run locally on your device either. That you have to appreciate when you realize, okay, if every company is essentially now put in a spot where they’re competing for the agentic surface area, does this start pushing a whole new layer of need from an infrastructure standpoint that would far outpace the consumers having to buy their own devices and memory, etc. Like, you’re probably going to see the memory usage and compute usages skyrocket off of that consumer behavior change over the coming year. Like that’s that’s so not like, I look, I don’t know how it plays out perfectly. I think it’s really interesting. Because you can make a case for both, right? Because like, I think one we’re set up for cloud services already. Like I think cloud has been where, where consumers have gone to for the last 20 years, because it’s been so easy. But I do think there is that element of like, wanting to be a little more sovereign. And like, I think the question is, how much do people really care about privacy? Up until this point, the answer has been zero, like nobody cares about privacy. And if you do want like, but like, now you have this, like one entity, right? Because like, this is like the conversations has been having,
people have been having with instinct and Muse, right? So instinct is another agent that from my understanding is that like you talk to it, and then it will route to like, the best model to answer something. So like, if you want to know what the weather is in New York today, you don’t need fable 5.1 to answer that, right? Like you can use like, the cheapest opus model, and you’ll get the right answer. So it’s like almost like a coordinator for compute. The problem is that instinct is a startup. And do you really want to get to venture back startup? And do you really want to give all of this, you know, PII to this company that may or may not be in business in three to five years versus meta, grok, open, you know, open AI, anthropic at this point, all these companies that are like, all right, well, these guys are too big to fail at this point. And also like, you know, like Google and meta, to me, it’s like, if I were to give any company access to the most PII, I’d be like Google, Google, I think has earned it the most, in my opinion, you may get argument on that. Like, at least like there have been no like big data hacks.
But like, meta has obviously used our PII against us, right? Like, you know, the, there’s always that that meme where people are like, Oh, your phone is listening to you, because you and me are talking about white hats with green brims. And all of a sudden, I get served that, you know, 15 minutes later, as an Instagram app, right? And so, like, how did you know that? And then, you know, their, their standard policy is like, Oh, well, because of like the interest in the things you like, I’m like, but I’ve never like, talked about this, like, until like this moment, like, there was no shred of interest. So, but like, I do think that like, they probably have earned people’s trust in the sense of like, oh, yeah, of course, I’ll share my PII with these people, because they already have so much info on me already. Right? Yeah. And that is, again, I think why you have to kind of step back and try to like, understand like, what, how has consumer behavior changed over the decades? What is the risk of you putting certain data out there? But I will say the one, the one reason I lean so hard there, and this is kind of come out of nowhere is I pay attention very closely to the offers that enthropic puts out on their dashboard. And I noticed recently, they started pushing really
hard at $250 and a $500 tier for their cloud credits, which is basically just allowing your information, all your compute, all your inference, everything to be run on their side.
And it seems like they are now pushing very hard to control that on their side, instead of having everything kind of be locally operated. So that virtual machine push makes me feel like they’re, they see that being kind of like the frontier to own. And if you see everybody move that direction, how does that impact a lot of the trade setups right now, which I think most people think, hey, it’s going to be running on my laptop and, you know, having to have all this file storage, etc. It does change over time.
Why I do think like, I’d say the biggest x factor here is Apple, in the sense that they do own personal personal machines, right, whether it’s an iPhone or, I mean, MacBooks as well, right, just like the entire Apple ecosystem. And I think they’re in a spot where if you want to talk about edge computing, and again, I don’t know for quite there yet, I think we’re starting to get there in terms of like, having a model run on your phone. So there is privacy, right? So it’s like, oh, you know, I was thinking about this the other day, like I granola a lot of like my meetings, so that I’m like, oh, hey, what are the follow ups and this and that. And then like, oh, but like, and then like, for some reason, the other day, I was like, looking into it, I’m like, all right, so like, who has access to my meeting transcripts, right? And it’s like, oh, granola does, then whatever models they use to, you know, transcribe and, and like store and like, you know, summarize those meetings also has access to it. I’m like, wait, I’m giving like, so many of these like services, and people access to my stuff. And I’m still paying for granola, right? Like, it’s not like I’m getting granola for free. So it’s like, I’m giving these people access this,
I’m like, well, maybe there’s, you know, if I’m the CEO of a publicly traded company, and I want to do this, I want to have these productivity hacks and these gains, but I don’t necessarily want other model providers to, to have access to this, like, I need like some sort of privacy first solution, which I think Apple is in the position to, to kind of win, right? And this is like not unfounded, because I think over the last couple of weeks, I believe one of the problems that open AI solved, there was a researcher that was using open AI to like kind of solve it. And technically, like open AI tells you it doesn’t train on your data. But like, it could have been like that open AI solved it, because this guy was like making inroads with his AI agent. And then it was like, oh, yeah, like it used it as training data, and then like it took it whatever the next couple of steps it needed to get it solved.
And we had a second case that didn’t even happen recently.
So what’d you say? We had a second case of this happened.
Recently, yeah, I think it was like this week. And, you know, everybody kind of clowned Dario for coming out and being like, we need to fix our alignment, etc, blah, blah, blah. And people were like, how about you fix the cheating that your model uses and kind of using, you know, people’s own work to train off of before you get in this like hall all high and mighty, you know, what is our alignment and end goals, the company that that seems to be a very, very touchy subject right now. And I think, yeah, I, you know, I think there is a level of there’s a level of yes, like truth and probably false to what is going on at these labs.
But I certainly think it’s not like a zero some case where like they’re like, oh, we’re absolutely not touching your data. The model is absolutely not learning off of any of your prompts or what you like. I would assume it is like I would assume whenever you prompt something in the model gets a little bit more context than that or, you know, it gets some bias there on on like, what is the expected outcome and it learns. Otherwise, you wouldn’t really have a competitive model. I feel like at the end of the day, like these these things are constantly learning. Well, that’s why that’s why I think this is like a really interesting spot for Apple, right? Because we always known Apple has been known to be a late entrant. They’re not always they’re never the first entrant in any category. But they also probably, you know, I would say in terms of trust from big tech, for me, number one is Apple. Number two is Google. Like, and so there’s no Apple is like the standard. Yeah, you know, even like I think in in criminal cases and stuff like that where Apple is like, yeah, we won’t like we won’t help you. Like even in that criminal, even in those criminal cases, which I think obviously helps increase trust across the
entire user base. And that’s obviously been a very conscious decision they’ve made over the last 20 years. And so I just think that, yeah, this is in terms of like edge compute, I think this is Apple’s game to lose. The question is like, what do they come up with? Right. And I’m very interested in, you know, at this point, I think it’s like three weeks away for the what is it called the duo, the iPhone? Yeah, the duo. Yeah, I don’t know, man. I still think it’s a miss. Because that’s that’s a I think that’s a new type of form. Like, listen, obviously, the what’s it called their their headset. It was terrible. It was like really bad. But I just think this is this is something that’s probably like an evolution evolutionary slash revolutionary, not like as crazy as building out a new headset, but would be I’m interested to see in in what they come up with there and and what the reception is. I know I’m a day one buyer. I’m super interested to see how other people feel after like holding it in their hands. Yeah, we’ll see. And there’s much to come here. Obviously, that’s going to play out over, you know, months and years here.
But I do want to touch on a few very near term things, one of them being hyper liquid, hyper liquid currently trading, I think around like $87, $13 off its nibbling of the $100 price point. There is an unlock happening, or not sure exactly how big it is. It’s either somewhere like $100 million up to like a billion dollars worth of hyping unlocked here. I will say that and I’m so sorry, unfortunately, we had a whole bunch of graphics that were going to be ready for the show, but entropic decided to go and have a some downtime here. But I’m obsessed with the idea of who’s generating revenue, and who is aligned with the current admin and the CTFC and the SEC and where things headed. I think the advisory from the SEC on an STFC on token buybacks is a very strong case for hyper liquid, I think you’re going to see a very strong adoption of hyper liquid with companies like allegedly Kraken who have the licensing to offer this to US customers. And I think money speaks to that today. Can you cash flow and can you profit flow? And nobody does it like hyper liquid. I’m waiting for this to stabilize here. We’ll see what this unlock does. But it could be another for the it’s been the theme of hyper liquid, another bullish unlock on Pons, another one that has been a very, a very notable
part of this revenue conversation. Right now, for those that are listening, we’re like, Oh, what are the main characters in this revenue world? It is the Pons is pump is hyper liquid. And there’s even if we’re going to the edge case here, and it was saying I want to talk about was cards, which is collector’s crypt. All these companies have great volume, if user cases that a consumer actually wants to go and use the product every day. And I think the alignment that we’re getting out of the government agencies who are kind of taking the place of Congress, make you say, Okay, well, I’ll come play. And I will say the winners here will ultimately probably be the ones with the most distribution. And that is that is to my thesis of hyper liquid. Nobody has a builder program like hyper liquid. And I think pump also nobody has a distribution marketing campaign, and the almost mindshare that they they’ve established over the years. And when you think about Pons, when you think about copies like stonk fun, you really have to understand distributions, the end game. And I think a lot has it absolutely cornered here. What a crazy chart.
I mean, we were talking about it at the lows on the show. If you had played that out, you’re up a nice to x on size. Yeah, almost react reacts, excuse me. Man, I should have kept a 10x love open. I would have absolutely eaten on this. But look, this is an incredible chart. I’m expecting more out of this company. I will say that don’t you can never think of pump as a singular like product like hey, they only have the launchpad hey, they only have the trading terminal. I am all the understanding that they’ve been operating dozens of companies that they’ve never claimed. And that they’re basically experimenting on a weekly basis to find the next kind of, you know, jumping point that has all the attention, they’ve dabbled in AI, they’re dabbling in consumer trading, they’re dabbling in prediction markets. They understand that what you can’t rely on just having the launchpad be your only surface area and not be what holds up over the years. And I think that’s what defines a great company to survive the competitiveness that they’re seeing, not only in the meme coin market, but now they’re being pushed to the equities market where everybody seems to be crowding around pairing these equities with
meme coins or meme equities. Very excited for what we have going here. What a chart though?
What a crazy chart. But all of these are probably, you know, I’m curious to hear your take here on the crypto market, which is a little bit at the mercy of Trump right now, or more at the mercy of the Iran deal oil also falling into this. Trump rejected the seven day ceasefire. We saw a lot of weakness around that a little bit of uncertainty into what CPE will offer tomorrow if that’s going to come in hot or not. Look, I think the bull case here is we see Trump come back to the table. Iran come to the table. We get some good forward looking guidance there. Risk probably becomes really just on what are rates at that point.
So I think that, I mean, I think oil is telling you that whatever Trump said this morning is a nothing burger and it’s probably just negotiating posturing. Because if that was the case, oil would be flying today and it’s selling off. To me, I think the more interesting thing to look at is the price of gold, which broke down yesterday. That’s why I put on my Bitcoin short.
Yesterday, I covered it. I covered it this morning and now it looks like it’s starting to sell off.
So I’m like a little annoyed about that. I literally covered like that high there. My original stock was up here. And then it just looked like it wasn’t selling off because I expected it to sell off last night. And then when I now it’s like, looks like it’s starting to sell off again. So, but I think that to me, it’s more of like as gold goes and whatever gold is doing, Bitcoin will be closely correlated to it because I just think that they’re the liquidity indicators. And so yeah, rates are.
If you compare the two charts, they’ve kind of diverged at this point, no?
I wouldn’t say the diverge. Like I think that like, yeah, they diverge here and there, but like, I do think ultimately they’re like very correlated to me, like they’re still the same trade.
Okay. So wait, this is Bitcoin. Can we look at the like four hour of Bitcoin and gold?
I feel like I feel like they have here. Here’s the four. Well, gold’s broken down more.
Right. Yeah. But like I but like I think if you look at if you look at this up move, this led Bitcoin, right? This this was faster out of the gate than Bitcoin was.
So if you want to take a look at like which one’s leading the other, like this move happened after gold already moved. You know what I mean? So like gold has been selling off. And I think at some point, like there could be, you know, a gap fill lower.
I’m not saying it goes to lows. I’m not saying we’re going to 60 K, but I mean, I don’t think like seven to 76 K region is like totally out of the question. No, it’s totally not out of the question. CPA comes in tomorrow and Trump, you know, does something crazy.
You could see. So yeah, so I just think like to me, like even though like to me, again, I just correlations work until they don’t. And so I just think you have to be especially around these like turning points when when they’re like diverging a little bit, like people look, you know, from one way or the other to to tell their story. And I’m just like, yeah, I mean, I think when gold sells off this fast, that quick, Bitcoin could have like a risk off trade.
And I just thought it was worth putting out a short. And like I covered literally the high of the day today, when I should have kept my stop above whatever 85.4, which was my original stop and let it run. But yeah, I mean, I still think this could probably I might, I might reenter it later today if it like pops up or whatever. But to me, it’s all dependent on what gold’s doing, because it’s all like a liquidity trade. Right. And so, again, we popped here, this was a lot of money that Bitcoin has over the last year. Right. And so those are like things you have to take into into account as well. 100 percent. Man, like I I feel like this makes me want to short for the first time in a minute. Like, I mean, again, like if you short, you just have to be like, I’m going to get a little bit higher, the upper, but like if you want to get bigger, you know, like, again, I I moved it lower. And when I move my stop lower, I’m like, I’m going to get fucking stopped out and these things didn’t go back to the lows. And that’s exactly what it did.
Meanwhile, I should have just kept my risk at what I originally risked. Right. But it is what it is. That’s that’s part of trading. I think other other majors following along here, I know a huge contestant to the Robin Hood on chain equities market. I saw reports this morning that Solana has finally found a way to bring on more equity exposure than Robin Hood, which I find shocking, actually. But you know, the Solana Foundation is sitting here probably thinking we need to do everything in our possible path to not lose this this kind of consumer you know, magic garden that they had for the last two years, which was if anybody was trading, it was happening on Solana. You might have had a little base season, you might have had a little finance season, but for the most part, it’s all been happening. At least the consumer retail side has all been on Solana. And for the first time since then, Robin Hood has kind of taken that away. The meme coin trading, the on chain equities, that exposure and then now the foundation has basically said we’re bringing everything on chain now. And basically, I believe it’s you know, there’s like 10% more available equities to trade on Solana. Don’t quote me on that. That was from a tweet I saw this morning. But I do know that Solana is trying to hold
hold down the fort at this point. But it does raise that question of, okay, Solana is bringing on equities, Robin Hood’s brought on equities, you know, every other chain is going to bring on equities, then it just becomes like, all right, well, who has the best, you know, the fastest chain, it’s gonna have the, you know, the tightest quoting, the tightest, the most liquidity. And that will probably be the endgame for okay, doesn’t I don’t care what chain it’s on. I just want the best experience as a consumer when I click by of, you know, Google, right? I don’t care. I really don’t care if it’s on Solana, just make it happen for me.
Yeah, I mean, I agree. I think that everybody realizes that tokenized equities are the big green space that everybody’s battling for now. So this to me is not surprising. Right? Like, I think everybody’s going to be working really hard to bring on chain equities to their ecosystem.
So can I grant real quick here and we’ll bring up the charts in a second here.
Everybody’s trying to bring on chain equities right now. You know, the other thing that everybody’s bringing is integrating and I completely disagree with some of the position or I disagree with some of the reactions to this. The collection space, I think is going to be massive. Coinbase yesterday announcing that they’re adding, you know, on chain, collectible cards, you know, sports cards, collectible cards, Pokemon cards to their suite of features and services.
I think everybody’s looking at the gotcha mechanic game and saying, wow, look at all this money.
FWA is a great example of this. Look at all the money they generate, all the volume they generate.
And obviously, consumers at this point love it. And they’re like, all right, on chain, collectible cards, we love it, vaults, etc. I disagree with the reaction of everybody thinking this is going to be a massive profit and revenue center for Coinbase. I think certainly people will use it.
However, I think better positioned is OpenSea who has never been in a better position, I think as a company ever. But I don’t think it will pop I think it is a huge marketing spend, I think, I think it takes a ton of effort to stay top of mind. And I don’t think Coinbase will see that same return as per se, if you were to see Pump.fun launch a competing service or again, OpenSea also launching this service a week earlier. I think they’ll have far more revenue generated from this because it is what their consumer base comes to do.
And that is not what you are going to Coinbase to do right now.
Yeah, I think no, I agree with that. I we should have spoken about it earlier. But that for sure was something that popped up on the timeline yesterday that I thought was interesting. It reminded me a lot of like the Coinbase NFT marketplace where it’s just like, it’s just like, not what you guys do. And like, again, it’s more when I saw OpenSea kind of come out with their product last week, I was like, All right, that makes sense. Because your Pokemon card collector, like there’s a lot of NFT guys that are collecting Pokemon cards, right? And so, but I don’t know how many people that use Coinbase either as a trading platform or for their crypto, whatever, right? Like, what’s the question we’re doing?
Let’s see. Let’s take a look at the daily. I mean, it’s tracking the price of Bitcoin looks like.
Yeah, yeah. At the lows of the day, but so is Bitcoin. So I wouldn’t say that that announcement has any material effect. But like, to me, it’s more. Yeah, the thing is like, I don’t know why.
Right. And so, again, I, you know, somebody I thought brought up this interesting comment.
And again, I don’t think we know the details of this gotcha platform just yet. But somebody was like, Well, if you’re gonna if Coinbase is going to build this on their own, like what instead like, if you’re going to build this on their own and not utilize base, like why should anybody build on base? I was like, I think that it showed up on inverse bra. But like, it’s because it’s like, it makes sense, right? Like, they’re like sitting here and trying to be like, build on base.
And then we may or may not build a competing product that we feed directly into like the Coinbase platform. I think it was interesting. Because I what would you have done different?
If you were running Coinbase, what would you have done differently with the NFT marketplace that you think Coinbase should do now to establish a winning position in the on chain collectible cards market? What would I have done differently?
I probably would have launched the NFT marketplace. Because like, again, this, this was this goes back to so like, I remember with 90cc, right? Like, there were a lot of people this was like in the middle of like base season, a lot of people were like, I think when they launched like the base app, and they were like, okay, like, you know, we’ll get you distribution on Coinbase.
And I was always like, distribution on Coinbase does nothing for 90cc, because like, nobody goes to Coinbase to buy a T shirt, right? People go to Coinbase to buy crypto, if I want to buy Ethereum, I want to buy Bitcoin, like I’ll go to something crypto, I’ll buy it. I’m not going to Coinbase to say, how do I spend my money? And I think that was like the issue with NFTs.
I think that was, you know, like, it’s like, because people are, I guess, to a lesser extent, because people were definitely speculating on NFTs. And people wanted to do that through Coinbase. I think probably what would have made more sense is like, some sort of partnership with OpenSea, you know, who was like, I’m sure there was, there had to be a discussion there, right? Like, there was discussion. I don’t know what, you know, who knows how it ended, obviously, nothing came to fruition. But yeah, I just I think it’s going to be interesting to see if this gacha platform is built in house, or if they’re part, I don’t know who the largest like gacha platform on on basis, or if they’re going to like, because I think the interesting point, I mean, that collected cards popped on the news yesterday, it was up big, and I think it’s pulled back a little bit from that or isn’t cards like Solana, part of the Solani? Right. And I think people are assuming like, well, it has to be it’s gonna be cards or somebody similar.
But I think that sector, right? Like, that’s that is the ultimate signal to see Coinbase saying like, we took time and energy and are stamping this as like, something we wanted in our ecosystem. I just keep coming back to they will fall if they will have to spend an insane amount of money on marketing to convince not only their existing customer base, but even the existing vertical that is wanting to collect these cards to come to Coinbase to do it.
Yeah, I agree. I think that like, I would have probably done it as like a separate brand, like whatever, like pack rip.com, or like whatever, whatever name they would have come up with.
But yeah, I think it’s just I think it’s interesting. But again, I don’t think we have enough information, right? So it’s like, if they because like, here’s the other kind of do we like, we will look what they did with prediction markets, it’ll be they’re gonna probably go bar for bar what they did there. And they’re gonna build this off of somebody else’s infrastructure.
And if it takes off, and, you know, it’s killing it, they’ll think about bringing it inside. And they’ll build it out themselves. They’ve got the apple to do it, but we don’t know who their partner is, right? So they’re like, I don’t think so. Like, I mean, I don’t think it’s collector’s grip, because collector’s grip is Solana centric. And, you know, like, even like, I mean, don’t people like always complain to Coinbase for the fact that like, they hold Solana deposits and withdrawals like, like, for sometimes hours, like, I feel like I’ve read that online, where like, they hold stuff like for longer, if it’s on, like, if it’s on base, it happens in like, two seconds, but if it’s on Solana, it takes like an hour or two or something. So it’s like, I wouldn’t feel like they’re really aligned to collector’s grip. So it would have to be like an EVM partner.
I don’t know who the biggest EVM partner is courtyard maybe, but courtyards on polygon, maybe, right? Um, I don’t know, right? And so I think I’d be really interested to see what that looks like the backend. Are they doing it on their own? Because like, here’s the thing, right? They like this, a gotcha mechanic isn’t that hard to build. Like I’ve, I’ve built them on my own with Claude code. You know what I mean? Like, it’s like the hard part is like the distribution and making sure you get the community engagement and making sure you have the inventory that all is that is all it is. And that’s why I’m saying, you know, if I’m going to bet on a company to be the best marketing and distribution company in the space and to dominate, I don’t, I don’t think Coinbase there. And that’s again, no hate to Coinbase.
They obviously have done a lot of great stuff and they have a great product and they’re, you know, for billions and billions of dollars. But my mind does not go there. Um, and I think that, listen, I know they’ve been like trying to figure out consumer for a really long time.
They brought some really talented people in. I just like, again, I just think it’s really hard because in my head, and I feel like I’m probably not the only one in my head. When I think of Coinbase, I’m like, oh, buy and sell crypto coins, not buy and sell NFTs, not buy and sell creator coins, not buy and sell Pokemon cards. Well, the good news is the best news about this is that we’re getting Jesse Packer opening edits for sure coming on base to us at some point here where he’s going to go to the streets and go up to people and basically be like, do you want to open Pokemon cards with me? And they’ll do it on the Coinbase app and it’ll be, it’ll be the exact same thing we had before. And I don’t know how he’ll get away with it, but he’ll get away with it once again. So, yeah. So again, like excited to kind of to see that. I mean, the other side of it is like, is this the top because like getting Coinbase NFTs launched at the top. So I’ve been seeing some top signals in the card collecting space, man. You said there have been I feel like, you know, path, crypto path, crypto pathic, who was probably one of the first Pokemon bulls on the timeline that I saw a couple of years ago has basically been tweeting out that he’s been
selling his stuff and like quote tweeting, like some big sales of being like, this is closer to the top. This is we’re pretty close to the top. And so he has really good market timing. So yeah. But like, again, like I also know the madness of markets and things can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. So I wouldn’t recommend people to go out and start shorting stuff. But yeah, I mean, shorting Pokemon cards is probably on the furthest edge of degenerate behavior you can probably do in this market. But hey, a dollar is a dollar.
And if there’s a way to make money on it, we’ll obviously be covering it here on Full Port.
What else do we have anything else that we miss that we want to go over here in the closing minutes of the show at all? Yeah. Got some new graphics, new transitions, obviously trying to elevate the show. As always, please make sure you are following us on X at Full Port show, following us on Spotify if you want to get this audio form while you drive to work or commuting YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, we’re on every social media website. So you can follow us there. It supports and helps us quite a bit. And yeah, as always, I’m just trying to bring you the best information on what’s happening in the financial markets.
Anything to close out the show here? No, that’s it. See you guys on Thursday.
We’ll see you on Thursday, 10am Eastern time and enjoy your Wednesdays and the rest of your Tuesdays.