All Eyes on Macro, NVDA Buybacks, and Trading Updates

0:56What is up, everybody? Welcome back to another episode of Full Port. We’re so happy to be here. We’ve got a big show today, Trump rejecting the ceasefire with Iran.

1:04We’ve got MongoDB CEO getting sniped by Meta. We’ve got craziness in the AI sector with OpenAI Dev Day, Anthropic announcing IPO intentions here, as well as even some outages on Anthropic side this morning that have led to even G and I discussing some of the impacts of being so reliant on this stuff.

1:30And with CPE on Wednesday, all eyes are on what majors are going to do, especially Bitcoin, which is around $83,000 right now, could have a move up towards $87,000 or be flirting with the $80,000 floor.

1:47Lots to go over. G, how are we doing this morning?

1:50Doing good. I feel like there’s a ton of AI news out over the last 24 hours, 36 hours.

1:57So I’m excited to kind of delve into that.

2:00I think I want to start where what we were talking about right before the show started about productivity.

2:05Yeah. Of how, you know, I know I’ve experienced this for myself last week.

2:09I experienced it a lot when I run out of credits, probably less so now.

2:14But I guess like it’s give or take because now it’s more AI is super ingrained in my workflows.

2:21So when AI goes down, because I think what sparked it was you said, oh, it looks like Claude might be down right now or Anthropic might be down.

2:30And you’re like, well, I can’t do anything now until, you know, services back up.

2:35And I was like, yeah, like I get the same thing, right?

2:38Like last week I ran out of, I maxed out my GrokBot plan and I had to wait like three and a half hours before I could like do anything.

2:47And like I was doing stuff here and there with the other AI platforms.

2:53But I think to me, one of the interesting things about it is that I realized that like as much as I’m trying to keep sovereignty over like, let’s say like my brain and all of my information, I have stuff like I think by using agents, it just making it so much harder.

3:10It makes it harder, I think, to kind of be like, hey, take out this model and put in this model because like an agent that I’ve been working on with GrokBot, I like I need to make sure that it’s saving stuff so that I can then work on it with like another AI agent.

3:25There’s trouble even going from chat to chat within, you know, let’s take Claude for this example, like being like, hey, can you take the current chat that we have, create a prompt, continue this in another one, and I’m going to like fork it off.

3:39So you even run into problems there where it’s all under the same ecosystem and roof, but context is lost.

3:46And yeah, I mean, I know this morning with this going down right before the show, stuff that we needed for the show, unable to go.

3:54And I am sure as hell not going to be opening up, you know, a cursor and doing this manually.

4:02It’s not happening.

4:04Yeah, no, for sure. So I think that like, I think it’s just interesting.

4:07It’s probably like new, the way I’ve been trying to frame it in my head is it’s just like, this is the universe telling me to like go outside and touch grass for a little bit or do something else, you know, and just like, hey, like enjoy life for a little bit.

4:21Because I think ultimately at the end of the day, like that’s kind of what you want, right?

4:27Like it’s like the human experience, like be, let the human experience be the human experience.

4:33And so it’s like, if you can utilize tech to increase your productivity and to let’s say spend less time in front of the screen.

4:39Like I’ve become, I don’t know about you, but I’ve started to become more and more.

4:45I haven’t done it yet where, but I’ve been more and more interested now that these chat models are like voice models are starting to get good enough where you can have conversations and be like, do this.

4:55And then like, I’m talking to it, it’s giving me feedback and then I’m like, all right, cool.

5:00Like I’m going to go for a walk and then I can like check on it in the middle of a walk and I don’t even need access to a screen.

5:07And I think right now, like I’m, I’m used to having access to a screen because that’s the only way you could interface with computers up until now.

5:16Right. Like the entire, like the entirety of computers you needed to like see was on the screen, but like maybe the next evolution of that is like, Hey, like I don’t need to see the spreadsheet.

5:26I just need you to tell me how much I spent on Uber this month.

5:30Right. And I think this is, this is why I think Meta’s move into their little key chain is probably their most impactful hardware launch.

5:41And one of the most impactful hardware launches that we’ve seen across the entire tech space recently, you can see people are obviously moving towards the, the glasses space.

5:52But this is really Meta’s signaling of saying, look, you don’t even need, you don’t even need like a pop-up interface.

5:58You don’t need to have like music or really, you just need a microphone and like, cool, that’s it.

6:05And everything else will happen for you. And that is, I think moving to this even more edge case of like when you walk in to your, and, and obviously we’ll see everybody compete for the home technology space.

6:18And I think Apple is set up quite well here, but when you walk into your bathroom and you’re sitting there like brushing your teeth and you’re like, Oh, like I need, I need to do this.

6:26And you have a HomePod sitting there and you can just be like, Hey, can you do that?

6:29And it just happens and it’s all universal.

6:31And it doesn’t matter if you get in your car, what you’re doing, it just leads into more hardware, more memory, more compute, more devices.

6:41Because now it is so seamless and it’s so distributed that it’s not just a phone in your hand.

6:48And that, that was the primary for the last decade has been the phone that has been the primary operating interface for, for all technology, everything you do.

6:57So, um, and I think the next one is, it’s a bit distributed in my opinion, that that’s, that’s, I, I think that, um, it’s kind of like the way Iron Man interacts with Jarvis, right?

7:11It’s like, Hey, tell me how far, how many miles away is whatever that target, like whatever, like whatever it is that he’s, he’s doing.

7:19And like Jarvis, like computes it in real time and then we’ll like bring up a map if he wants it.

7:24Right. So to your point, I think it’s like, you know, the, I’m, I’m very interested in what, what meta is working on with that, that little key chain.

7:32And maybe it is that the thing, like, like I said, like I, I’ve been utilizing it more, I think now on like the non-coding stuff and more as almost like a, an assistant.

7:41And one of those things is like, you know, kind of like tracking my spending more and like itemizing, you know, what’s personal, what’s business and like all this stuff, which is stuff that like, I’ve hated to do my entire life.

7:55I’ve never liked doing it. And now like I, I set up a thing.

7:58I’m like, I went through like all my transactions, it did everything.

8:02And then now I’m like a weekly basis.

8:04I have like, like, I am like, Hey, let’s set up a 15 minute window where I literally just, you know, you walk through the transactions for the week.

8:13You tell, you asked me if it’s business or personal.

8:15I tell you, cause like, it’s much easier to, to remember something from last week than from, you know, 16 months ago when I’m like, Oh yeah.

8:22Like I gotta, I gotta send this to my accountant.

8:24And so I just think, I think it’s like stuff like that where I’m just like, Oh yeah.

8:27Like I know there’s like a bookkeeping ledger and everything on like a site and a file that lives somewhere, but literally like on a weekly basis is just like, Hey, this, uh, dinner, is it business or personal?

8:40And I’m like, Oh yeah, that was personal. Right. And like, I just think like, that’s probably the next evolution where I’m like, Oh yeah, I don’t need to see my ledger of like expenses and income on a daily or weekly basis.

8:52I just need to know, Oh, what is the trend?

8:55Give me an analysis. And I want to double click on it.

8:58Then we can go into those numbers. And I think that’s really cool. And I think we’re going to see more and more of that.

9:02Again, I think the same stuff we’ve been saying on the show for the last two months.

9:06Uh, and I think we more talk about this at this point of like, Hey, if you don’t see it happening, you need to probably take a step back and understand, uh, a lot of this is just becoming more and more ingrained.

9:18And it’s time to kind of, I, I like to think on like the horizon, like what’s, what’s coming if this is the early innings.

9:26Um, and I think, I think it’ll be crazier than even you and I expect at this point.

9:31Um, you know, look, AI, obviously big topic.

9:35We’re jumping right into it. Um, open AI, as you mentioned, uh, dev day.

9:39So we’ll probably have big announcements coming out of that camp.

9:42Um, I think before that, I think like, I think that’s like really big.

9:46I want, I want to highlight also, I think they said something like they’re making like 20 plus announcements at dev day, uh, today.

9:54So I think that’s going to be really interesting.

9:56They, I saw, we were talking about it right before the show.

9:59They kind of have their answer to MetaMuse and GrokBot that’s coming out, which I find interesting because, like, I find myself using the ChatGBT app a lot more, which I think is very cool.

10:14So, yeah, like, I’m very interested to see, like, all the stuff that’s coming out from there.

10:19But, like, I think more importantly than that, the biggest headline overnight was Anthropic filing for their IPO or, you know, releasing their docs.

10:26And because that’s, I think, been obviously the hottest topic of the last, like, three to six months of when these companies are going to file for their IPO, when they do file for their IPO, what are the financials that we look at?

10:41And so I think to me, like, some of the key things that came out was one is in 2025, I think they reported revs of $4 billion and a loss of $8 billion, which not great, right?

10:54Obviously, because, like, I think people have been worried about, you know, how much does the revenue cost them.

10:58But I don’t think I saw any numbers for 2026.

11:02And I know people have been saying that Anthropic is going to expect it to make between $100 and $110 billion this year.

11:11So that puts, you know, that $2 trillion at a 20X revenue multiple.

11:15Now, what does that mean on profitability?

11:17I was going to say you’re leaving out the big P, a big discussion on both of the big labs right now.

11:23Yeah. And so I think that’s, you know, people are going to be extrapolating that out.

11:28I think one of the other big numbers that people were highlighting was, I think it’s $518 billion of committed CapEx spend over the next few years.

11:39So, you know, where are they going to get that money from?

11:42Yeah, where is that coming from? You know, right, that’s like, I think, the big question.

11:47But I think to that point, you know, right, again, this morning, I think an hour ago, or maybe two hours ago, OpenAI came out saying that the $200 Pro model is going to get like half, they’re basically cutting usage in half, right?

12:05Whereas, like, if you compare it to API usage, it’s going to get cut in half.

12:08So what does that tell you? Is that, one, we’re compute constrained.

12:12You know, I know for the last, like, nine months, since the beginning of the year, I remember frantically trying to use all these models as much as possible because it’s like the cheapest that it’s going to be because it’s fully subsidized by VCs and they’re trying to win market share.

12:29But then at some point, they have to focus on profitability, and when they focus on profitability, obviously, the price of compute goes up.

12:35And so it’s no longer, oh, you can, like, one-shot, you know, GTA 6 for, you know, $35.

12:46It’s, like, going to be like, oh, yeah, you can one-shot it, but maybe it’s, like, it’s going to cost you whatever, $500.

12:51Not, like, it’s still incredibly cheap compared to how much it would cost you without using AI, but, like, just, like, the cost of AI in general will be going higher from here, probably the lower because now these companies are public.

13:06But it can’t, like, here’s the thing, like, it’s not even a profitability question.

13:09It is, I always come back to AI is very comparable to the drug dealer, right?

13:17The first hit’s always free, and that’s how they started, right?

13:20Like, they were, like, yo, use it for free, go and do your stuff, and everybody’s, like, whoa, can I get some more of this?

13:26Can I get some more powerful stuff?

13:28And then they started charging, they’re, like, oh, we have a pro plan, we have a max plan.

13:33Oh, you want to use APIs and, you know, spend $80,000 a month on compute?

13:37Sick, come on over, let’s do it.

13:39And, you know, even with this, and I have this damn Claude status page up right now, elevated errors on Claude.ai, I can’t do anything right now.

13:50I am so hooked on this service, and it runs my life.

13:56It runs, you know, think about the companies right now.

13:58Think about the tech companies right now that their stack is built off of Anthropic.

14:02For the last 40 minutes or 30 minutes, they have done probably nothing.

14:08They are all probably in Slack sending memes to each other.

14:12They’re probably all getting coffee.

14:15Like, this is the level of dependency we have right now.

14:19And when you have that level of dependency and there’s that price, I don’t know, would it be price elasticity?

14:24Like, you can charge, you can 10x the price.

14:29And I would still be like, all right, like, I mean, I guess I have to, like, pay here or I have to go somewhere else.

14:36But, like, then you know everybody’s going to be increasing their prices.

14:39So, you know, number go up across the board here.

14:42You know, I think that meme of, like, from Tyrone Biggins from The Chappelle Show, that’s when he plays this crackhead.

14:51Oh, yeah. He’s like, when’s my turn, Joe Rogan?

14:54And, like, yeah.

14:56It’s just, like, that’s basically where we’re at, right?

14:59It’s, you know, I literally have no, my productivity, like, zeroes out when I run out of credits.

15:08And, like, there is, you know, an up, there is probably some sort of upper bound that I’ll be willing to pay.

15:13But, like, it just, it’s still so much cheaper than, you know, having, like, a human in the loop or whatever, as long as it’s getting the majority of things done.

15:24So, yeah, I think it’s going to be really interesting with, you know, people’s analysis of the Anthropic IPO.

15:31I know, like, the headlines. I think more interestingly what I shared this headline with you, I actually read this thing last night.

15:39I didn’t know how. You want to pull it up on screen? Yeah, give me a second. Let me pull up the link.

15:45I literally had to ask Grok if this was real.

15:51That, do we have it up on the screen?

15:56Anthropic’s IPO plan includes new founder LLC to keep control of its, quote, unquote, low ego truth-seeking environment.

16:04And that’s from the IPO filing.

16:06And I thought it was a troll. So I literally asked Grok, like, right before we started the show, I was like, is this a real headline or not?

16:14And I just think, I mean, I think we all see the irony of this is that it’s not a low ego truth-seeking, like, model, right?

16:24Like, I think people keep on talking about how, one, Anthropic, like, Dario’s come off as very not trustworthy, kind of like, hey, we’re smarter than you.

16:36So you don’t, it’s not, you know, you don’t want to run this, like, trust us to run this for you.

16:44And he’s ending up on SNL as a skit at this point.

16:47Like, that is to the level of clowning there.

16:49That skit was pretty, and I feel like you got to be pretty bad if you are left wing and SNL is, you know, trolling you, right?

17:00Like, that’s pretty hard. That’s pretty hard to get SNL to troll you if you’re left of center.

17:05This is all part of Grok’s, or not Grok, this is all part of Anthropic’s model for marketing that was like, look, if we push them far enough off the left end here, we’ll get free marketing from SNL.

17:18And they’ll start memeing him and more people will know about us.

17:21It’ll be a great marketing campaign, trust me.

17:24Yeah, so I don’t know.

17:26I, you know, we, I, listen, they have, they have Einstein level genius models that I’m sure they’re, that they’re running through this.

17:34And the fact that OpenAI is kind of doing something similar means that they’re probably aligned in how, in how they see this playing out.

17:41But I don’t know. I think like as a human reading this low ego, truth seeking environment, it’s like, I’m like, wow, like you guys are the exact opposite of that.

17:51Like, you must think we’re, we’re really dumb in order to be eating that up.

17:54Right. And so, cause like, I think even like for, I’m super curious, like when I look for, for information that I don’t want any bias, I go to Grok.

18:05Like I asked Grok, I’m like, Hey, like, is this true?

18:09Blah, blah, blah. And I can ask it questions and I’ll get like an unbiased return.

18:14Whereas I, I feel like OpenAI to less of an extent, but Claude for sure.

18:18Like, like for sure, I know that like, Oh, you’re not allowed to view this or you’re not allowed.

18:24You shouldn’t be asking these types of questions.

18:26Right. And I’m like, yeah, well, I have no malicious intent behind it.

18:30So like, what, like I, I want information.

18:32I want the truth. And so I just think that’s pretty funny, you know?

18:36And so we’ll see what, what I think the reaction is over the next like couple of days to this.

18:42Um, you know, I, I know this is obviously the most anticipated IPO of the back half, uh, of the year and OpenAI is probably coming early next year.

18:52But I think like the big question is, um, people are going to be wondering where is that CapEx capital going to be coming from?

18:59But again, people were also asking this question at the end of last year, in the middle of last year, when Sam said, uh, signed all those massive compute deals and people were asking the same types of questions.

19:11And it turns out that Sam should assign more compute deals because like, we’re so compute constrained, right?

19:17Like, I think that’s the one thing that all the AI models, frontier models have been telling us is that, oh, our revenue would be higher, except for the fact that we don’t have enough compute.

19:26Right. So, yeah. You know, at some point though, like that question is, uh, is very real and it will catch up.

19:37I have a feeling at some point, not saying it’s now.

19:40Um, but don’t look, I, I think, uh, there’s no slowing of, of AI.

19:47In our eyes, uh, for the time being.

19:50So let the party roll on. I love it. Listen, maybe, maybe, uh, open AI dev day, uh, comes out with like some new.

19:58Crazy announcement. We’re like, oh, my God. Because I feel like there’s always that next where people are like, oh, well, how much better is it going to get, right? And now all of a sudden now agents are starting to proliferate. And now people are going to be like, oh, well, now I have an AI that books my flights. What else is it going to do? And then there’s going to be some evolution of it where people are like, oh, wow, I didn’t even think about that, right?

20:21Without a question. Without a question. But also on top of the big labs here, we have a massive attention onto all the companies that are supporting both of these labs. The two big ones on our radar right now, NVIDIA announcing a massive, I mean, like what, $130, $200 billion buyback program at this point.

20:47So I think they, I think it’s a $250 billion in total. And I think they increased it by, I think like $125, something like that.

20:56Yeah, okay. And then the secondary one being Micron as well, which we’ll get to. But NVIDIA, this buyback program, NVIDIA kind of just basically like saying like, hey, the green days are ahead of us and we’re going to do whatever it takes to keep, again, keep the music going.

21:18So, so yeah, I want to, I want to talk about that. I think that it’s funny because like I tweeted about it yesterday. I think this has been for me, one of the upcoming catalysts that I’ve been looking forward to.

21:29I think Micron is also on the table for this. I don’t know if they’re going to announce it tomorrow with earnings, but I think it’s coming like some sort of accelerated share repurchase program or some sort of share repurchase program.

21:41That, I mean, the stock at some point, if your management, you’re like, our stock is too cheap that the best use of capital at some point, right? Because what is a stock buyback, right?

21:53You’re basically saying that the stock is too cheap and it’s so cheap that one of the best uses of capital is to invest it into your own stock.

22:01Now, I think the interesting thing with NVIDIA, I think over the last couple of quarters, and you can kind of see it in the chart, is that they’ve been like investing so much back into the space, right?

22:13And like, because of that, like they haven’t invested it into stock, right? And so you kind of see, that’s why like the stock has kind of been, you know, it’s been pretty range bound since October-ish, right?

22:27Really since probably July of last year, where it’s like, it’s in the upper half of that range, but it hasn’t had like an explosive up move like it did starting in 2023.

22:38Right. And so I think basically, right, as an investor, great. I think that like, I want to be seeing this. I do think that, you know, if they’re producing money hand over fist, largest company in the world, they’re still investing into the sector to help grow the sector, right?

22:56They just bought Hugging Face a couple of weeks ago, a couple of months ago, and they’re still massively investing and supporting neoclouds.

23:05And, and they just, they, they, you know, and, and to Jensen’s credit, he’s wanted more, he could have just like sold to hyperscalers really early on, but he wanted to build a competitive ecosystem because he understood that he would end up getting squeezed if he just built to like this small, small cohort.

23:21So I think one is it shows you that, you know, they feel confident in the cash generation that’s coming down the road.

23:27And they also feel the stock is really cheap. And I think even though you look at this chart and it’s up into the right for the last couple of years on a PE basis, it’s gotten to be pretty cheap, especially compared to, you know, a bunch of other stuff that’s been out there.

23:43So I think it’s super positive. I think we’re probably going to see this from the memory makers as well, especially as they have more and more visibility into things.

23:52Like I said, I think like this could be like an upside surprise for Micron into numbers tomorrow.

23:57Although like, I’d say it’s probably pretty low. I’d say it’s probably under 20% if they announced something like this, maybe they want one more quarter of visibility before announcing something like that.

24:06But I will say to play devil’s advocate on the flip side of this NVIDIA is, you know, it’s funny because like I tweeted it out yesterday when I read it and people are like, oh, exit liquidity.

24:18It’s because the big shareholders want, you know, to get out or whatever. And it’s like, well, this isn’t crypto. Right.

24:24So this is like, you have to like take that framework out because one is they’re generate, they’re real businesses. I mean, like, you know, in H100 or sorry, Rubin, Vera Rubin, I think is going for $4 million for one Vera Rubin rack. Right.

24:41I think that’s like the price. And so they’re, they’re selling tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of these, you know what I mean?

24:49Like it’s, it’s crazy. And so they’re generating a ton of cash. At some point they can’t keep reinvesting everything back into the AI space and they’re going to just, you know, feed themselves.

25:02So, but I will say on the flip side, cause I always like to kind of steel man the other side of like, what is, you know, what are the possible bear cases?

25:11Like to me, the question becomes is like, wow, does that mean they don’t see as much good opportunity to get a ROI on their capital invested out there? Right.

25:22So I’m sure we’re going to start seeing that pop up from the bears. Like I’m, I’m sure Burry is going to write that probably in the next 10 to 14 days is like, if they’re doing a buyback, that means there’s no return on invested capital that they see.

25:37And that’s why they’re buying back their shares, blah, blah, blah, whatever he’s going to do and frame it as like peak bull argument.

25:42Uh, but I do think it’s, it’s ultimately bullish because that means they, they see the stock is very cheap, uh, and they have good view into cash flows at least for probably the next, you know, two to six quarters.

25:54And, you know, it, it’s reflected in, in management decisions there.

25:59Okay. So you, you laid out the bull case, the bear case. What are you actually doing though? Like what is, what is your trade position?

26:05I mean, I’m still, you know, I bought, I bought Nvidia. I started buying around like the 208 level.

26:12I still have my calls, right? Like, I don’t think anything’s changed, right? We’re back up near all time highs, uh, right around kind of where we peaked, um, in May, but then also like after numbers a couple of weeks ago.

26:25And, you know, I think above that two 35 ish, definitely above two 40, but like two 35 ish level, you know, hopefully that looks like it’s starting like the next up move, the next leg higher, but like, I’m still long.

26:38I, I like, I, for me, like nothing’s changed. Nothing’s changed in the thesis, right? Like part of it was like part of my thesis for, for wanting to buy it.

26:47And also Micron, I think falls, you know, memory falls in the same bucket. Like the PEs on this, these stocks are so low that at some point they’re going to be like, oh, the best use of our capital is to just buy our own stock.

26:59You know, if like wall street doesn’t believe us, if investors don’t believe us and we have the most visibility into it, like we’ll just buy back the stock, right? Like it’s, it’s the best use of our capital at that point.

27:09So, um, I’m still long. I still have my, my calls. I haven’t sold anything, haven’t traded around it. Um, you know, NVIDIA, Nebius and Micron are kind of like my three horsemen in the AI trade for right now that, you know, I’m just, I have long-term calls that I expect to start re-rating higher, like on the next move higher. Right.

27:33Yeah. Yeah. Look, uh, I’m on the same boat. Um, I think if I keep looking around the space, SpaceX, another, uh, hardware and, uh, software company within that sector that very bullish on getting a lot of, uh, you know, a lot of news out of that camp, uh, for what they’re doing.

27:53And I think additionally, it would be irresponsible of us not to bring up meta as well. Uh, as we mentioned at the beginning of the show, making moves in stealing, absolutely stealing, uh, the MongoDB CEO, uh, away from MongoDB, um, shares falling at Mongo, uh, I think like 15%, 20%.

28:13I think it felt more yesterday. I think it felt like 25% yesterday. Yeah.

28:19Yeah. I mean, a real hit. Um, and, and this is meta basically saying like, Hey, we are, we are going after the AI sector in the most serious fashion where we’re good. We’re poaching CEOs to come lead division.

28:35So I think this was interesting. I didn’t, admittedly, I didn’t look that much into it yesterday, but I thought it was interesting for a couple of things. A couple of reasons. One is, um, I thought it was interesting that it was effective immediately.

28:49Right. And it wasn’t like, Oh, you know, not even like two weeks notice. It was effective immediately. Uh, so, and it was done right before investor day, which is today, which investor days are usually scheduled to kind of increase investor confidence. You give long-term projections for the company.

29:05So the fact that the CEO left the day before investor day is pretty wild. Um, and then also I think it kind of shows you how intense this race is that the CEO of MongoDB, like, I don’t know how much he makes, but like, let’s say he’s escaped the permanent underclass, right?

29:28He’s running a multi-billion dollar public company. I’m sure he has a great pay package. Uh, and if he’s been doing it for any amount of time, I’m sure he’s a mass significant wealth up until this point.

29:40So then why would he do this? Right. And so it’s like, cause it’s like, it’s not, you know, to add necessarily. I don’t think at least, I don’t know the guy personally, but it’s not, it’s probably not to add more money to his net worth because he probably has a really significant amount of it already.

29:59And so it’s more like, okay, and like we, I think we’ve seen this among all the AI labs up until this point where you see guys jumping from lab to lab and it’s, again, not because of pay, right?

30:12Because like they’re going to make 9 to 11 figures at any, either of those labs.

30:19It’s probably because they’re chasing AGI and ASI and they want to win and they want to be on that winning team.

30:25So the fact that like the MongoDBCO left effective immediately and wasn’t even willing to be like, oh, it’ll be over the next 6 to 12 months because I want to help, you know, for a smooth transition, this and that, means that like he probably gets, he understands that sense of urgency.

30:45And this race is probably like much closer than we think at the frontier, right?

30:53And I just think it’s really interesting.

30:54And again, we don’t have all the information here.

30:56I’m sure, you know, publications like the Wall Street Journal and the information will come out with more, more stuff over the next couple days and weeks as to his reasons for abrupt departure.

31:07But I just think from the outside looking in, I just thought that that was the most interesting part of it.

31:12Not necessarily that I got poached because guess what?

31:14Like, you know, good talents are going to always get poached.

31:17But I think it was that he left immediately and was just kind of like, you know, like almost to the point where it’s like, hey, reputation be damned.

31:26I need to be a part of this team immediately because like, listen, the stock’s down 20% overnight.

31:33I’m sure he’s got a lot of like, you know, hedge fund managers and large pension funds calling him being like, yo, what the fuck?

31:42Like, you just fucked me. Like, you know, I’m not. He cost people millions, tens of millions.

31:48Billions, billions of dollars, billions of dollars.

31:51And so, yeah, I just think that that to me is the most interesting part of it.

31:55Like, we’ve seen it within the AI space at the Frontier Labs.

31:59And now we’re starting to see it, you know, like in tech, right?

32:03Because MongoDB is a software database, enterprise software database company, right?

32:11There’s nothing truly exciting happening at MongoDB.

32:14I think that’s, you know, to your point, right?

32:15Like, Meta rolled out probably quite the offer from a, like, emotional rewards perspective.

32:25Like, you get to work on the coolest stuff at one of the biggest companies impacting truly everybody in a different way instead of, all right, databases.

32:38Yeah, I mean, we’re probably oversimplifying it, but yeah, for sure.

32:41No, no, no, no, I don’t know, gee, like, databases are pretty boring.

32:47I mean, I’m sure they are. I’ve never, I can honestly say.

32:51No, we’re 100% oversimplifying what’s going on at MongoDB, and I’m sure I pissed off somebody who’s listening, but, you know, look, I certainly understand the move.

33:02And we’ll, we’ll see, we’ll see how it plays out.

33:05I know Meta’s down a little bit on the day.

33:08I think it originally popped just a tad yesterday, maybe.

33:14Well, it sold off yesterday.

33:15So, I, like, I think also part of it, too, it’s been, it’s been on a wild run since Muse got released.

33:22And so, I think part of it’s, like, digesting that move, you know, basically, like, off the lows, it’s up almost, it looks like 50%, right, in the last month and a half, right?

33:33So, you know, I think there’s some digestion there, people trying to figure out, or, you know, lock-in gains and stuff like that.

33:40I think, to me, the most interesting thing we have coming up, and we alluded to, it was Micron, Micron numbers tomorrow, I think, I believe tomorrow night after the close.

33:52This chart looks really nice.

33:54You know, this was, here’s earnings report two quarters ago, earnings report this quarter, this last quarter was right here, marked the high, had a strong pullback where everyone was saying HBM peaked, or memory peaked, uh, has been forming this nice little cup, you know, support at this trend line here that I had to redraw a couple times till it finally worked.

34:19And, uh, but yeah, I mean, I, this looks like a strong setup to me.

34:22Like, again, I know I’ve been saying it since last week that I want to buy calls into the print.

34:26I’m actually probably, like, I’m probably going to do some more reading onto it tonight and tomorrow to know a little more on the setup.

34:34But, like, I think still, from everything I read, like, people are either, like, crazy bullish or crazy bearish, right, um, on memory.

34:41Because, like, every other, I feel like every Friday night after the close, uh, something will pop up on X of how, like, memory is no longer needed.

34:50Or there’s going to be, like, memory compression of, like, 99% and, like, NVIDIA is taking HBM out of their chips and, like, all, like, this crazy, like, negative bear porn stuff on the weekends.

35:02And then, like, we open up on Monday and it’s, like, yeah, flat, right?

35:06And so I do think that, you know, people are at this point are waiting, but this setup looks good to me, you know, uh, I think then I feel good in my long-term calls.

35:17So, like, I’m not going to be doing anything there, but I’ll probably buy some short-term calls and then maybe, like, bigger size and some longer-term calls.

35:25So that if maybe there’s a gap down or whatever, as long as I feel the story doesn’t change, um, I would add to it and, and wait for, you know, wait for, for it to, the story to catch up to, to the numbers, right?

35:39And so, yeah, I’m still bullish on it.

35:42I think that, you know, I still think that, like, the street is under, they’re, they’re underweighting the power of agents and what that means for memory impact.

35:55And I think, like, again, this is where utilizing stuff really puts you at an advantage because you understand what’s going on here, right?

36:02And the things that make, like, even, like, MetaMuse, right?

36:05Not Frontier Model, the thing that makes it so powerful is that it knows you.

36:10And people are like, yeah, I love it because it knows me, you know, like, I give it, like, my credit card info and it books stuff for me and this and that.

36:17And that’s what makes it so powerful.

36:19So, like, in order to do that, you need memory.

36:22Yep, and I keep going back to, it’s the memory machine.

36:26That is, that’s the point of what AI is at the end of the day.

36:31Anyway, I really feel like there’s a level of, like, understanding the decentralized nature of Muse.

36:41Like, nobody, nobody’s buying another device to use it and it’s not being run locally on your device either that you have to appreciate when you realize, okay, if every company is essentially now put in a spot where they’re competing for the agentic surface area, does this start pushing a whole new layer of need from an infrastructure standpoint that would far outpace the consumers having to buy their own devices and memory, et cetera?

37:16Like, you’re probably going to see the memory usage and compute usages skyrocket off of that consumer behavior change over the coming years.

37:27Like, that’s, that’s the one that I’m like, look, I don’t, I don’t know how it plays out perfectly.

37:32I think it’s really interesting because you can make a case for both, right?

37:37Because, like, I think one, we’re set up for cloud services already.

37:40Like, I think cloud has been where, where consumers have gone to for the last 20 years because it’s been so easy.

37:46But I do think there is that element of, like, wanting to be a little more sovereign.

37:53And, like, I think the question is how much do people really care about privacy?

37:57Up until this point, the answer has been zero.

37:59Like, nobody cares about privacy.

38:01And if you do want, like, but, like, now you have this, like, one entity, right?

38:05Because, like, this is, like, the conversations that’s been having, people have been having with instinct and muse, right?

38:10So instinct is another agent that, from my understanding, is that, like, you talk to it and then it will route to, like, the best model to answer something.

38:19So, like, if you want to know what the weather is in New York today, you don’t need Fable 5.1 to answer that, right?

38:25Like, you can use, like, the cheapest Opus model and you’ll get the right answer.

38:28So it’s, like, almost like a coordinator for a compute.

38:31Yep. The problem is that instinct is a startup and do you really want to, it’s a venture-backed startup, and do you really want to give all of this, you know, PII to this company that may or may not be in business in three to five years versus Meta, Grok, Open, you know, OpenAI, Anthropic at this point.

38:53All these companies that are, like, all right, well, these guys are too big to fail at this point.

38:57And also, like, you know, like, Google and Meta, to me, it’s like, if I were to give any company access to the most PII, I’d be like Google, Google, I think, has earned it the most, in my opinion.

39:11You can make an argument on Meta, like, at least, like, there have been no, like, big data hacks, but, like, Meta has obviously used our PII against us, right?

39:19Like, you know, there’s always that meme where people are like, oh, your phone is listening to you because you and me are talking about white hats with green brims and all of a sudden I get served that, you know, 15 minutes later as an Instagram ad, right?

39:34And so, like, how did you know that? And then, you know, their standard policy is like, oh, well, because of, like, the interest in the things you like.

39:41I’m like, but I’ve never, like, talked about this, like, until, like, this moment. Like, there was no shred of interest.

39:47So, but, like, I do think that, like, they probably have earned people’s trust in the sense of, like, oh, yeah, of course I’ll share my PII with these people because they already have so much info on me already, right?

39:59Yeah, and that is, again, I think why you have to kind of step back and try to like understand like what, how has consumer behavior changed over the decades?

40:09What is the risk of you putting certain data out there?

40:14But I will say the one, the one reason I lean so hard there, and this has kind of come out of nowhere, is I pay attention very closely to the offers that Anthropic puts out on their dashboard.

40:28And I noticed recently they started pushing really hard at $250 and a $500 tier for their cloud credits, which is basically just allowing your information, all your compute, all your inference, everything to be run on their side.

40:44And it seems like they are now pushing very hard to control that on their side instead of having everything kind of be locally operated.

40:55So that virtual machine push makes me feel like they’re, they see that being kind of like the frontier to own.

41:04And if you see everybody move that direction, how does that impact a lot of the trade setups right now, which I think most people think, hey, it’s going to be running on my laptop and, you know, having to have all this file storage, et cetera.

41:17It does change over time.

41:20Well, I do think like, I’d say the biggest X factor here is Apple in the sense that they do own personal, personal machines, right?

41:31Whether it’s an iPhone or, I mean, MacBooks as well, right?

41:35Just like the entire Apple ecosystem.

41:37And I think they’re in a spot where if you want to talk about edge computing.

41:42And again, I don’t know if we’re quite there yet.

41:44I think we’re starting to get there in terms of like having a model run on your phone.

41:48So there is privacy, right? So it’s like, oh, you know, I w I was thinking about this the other day.

41:53Like I granola a lot of like my meetings so that I’m like, oh, hey, what are the follow-ups and this and that?

41:58And then like, oh, but like, and then like for, for some reason the other day I was like looking into it.

42:03I’m like, all right, so like who has access to my meeting transcripts, right?

42:07And it’s like, oh, granola does then whatever models they use to, you know, transcribe and, and like store and like, you know, summarize those meetings also has access to it.

42:18I’m like, wait, I’m giving like so many of these like services and people access to my stuff and I’m still paying for granola, right?

42:25Like, it’s not like I’m getting granola for free.

42:27So it’s like, I’m, I’m giving these people access to this.

42:30I’m like, well, maybe there’s, you know, if I’m a, the CEO of a publicly traded company and I want to do this, I want to have these productivity hacks and these gains, but I don’t necessarily want other model providers to, to have access to this.

42:45Like I need like some sort of privacy first solution, which I think Apple is in the position to, to kind of win.

42:53Right. And, and this is like not unfounded because I think over the last couple of weeks I believe one of the problems that open AI solved, there was a researcher that was using open AI to like kind of solve it.

43:07And technically like open AI tells you it doesn’t train on your data, but like, it could have been like that open AI solved it because this guy was like making inroads with his AI agent.

43:18And then it was like, Oh yeah. Like it used it as training data. And then like, it took it, whatever the next couple of steps it needed to get it solved.

43:26And we had a second case of it even happened recently.

43:28We had a second case of this happen recently. Yeah. I think it was like this week. Um, and you know, everybody kind of clowned Dario for coming out and being like, we need to fix, uh, our alignment, et cetera, blah, blah, blah. And people are like, how about you fix the cheating, uh, that your model uses and kind of using, you know, people’s own work to train off of before you get in this like hall, all high and mighty, you know, what is our alignment and end goal as a company?

43:57Um, that, that seems to be a very, very, uh, touchy subject right now. And I think, you know, I think there is a level of, uh, there’s a level of yes, like truth and, uh, probably false to what is going on at these labs. Um, but I certainly think it’s not like a zero some case where like, they’re like, Oh, we’re absolutely not touching any of your data.

44:22The model is absolutely not learning off of any of your prompts or what you, like, I would assume it is like, I would assume whenever you prompt something in the model gets a little bit more context into that, or, you know, it, it gets some, uh, bias there on, on like, what is the expected outcome? And it learns, uh, otherwise you wouldn’t really have competitive model.

44:45I feel like at the end of the day, like these, these things are constantly learning.

44:49Um, well, that’s why, that’s why I think this is like a really interesting spot for Apple, right? Cause we always known Apple has been known to be a late entrant.

44:59They’re not always, they’re never the first entrant in any category. Uh, but they also probably, you know, I would say in terms of trust from big tech for me, number one is Apple. Number two is Google.

45:11Like, and so there’s no Apple is like the standard.

45:15Yeah. Yeah. Even like, I think in, in criminal cases and stuff like that, where Apple’s like, yeah, we won’t like, we won’t help you.

45:23Um, like even, even in that criminal, um, even in those criminal cases, which I think obviously helps increase trust across the entire user base.

45:32And that’s obviously been a very conscious decision they’ve made over the last 20 years.

45:36And so I, I just think that, yeah, this is in terms of like edge compute, I think this is Apple’s game to lose.

45:44The question is like, what do they come up with? Right. And I’m very interested in, you know, at this point, I think it’s like three weeks away for the, what is it called?

45:53The duo, the iPhone duo. Yeah. I don’t know, man. I still think it’s a miss.

45:57Cause that’s, that’s a, uh, I think that’s a new type of form. Like, listen, obviously the, the, what’s it called? Their, their headset was terrible.

46:06It was like really bad, but I just think this is, this is something that it’s probably like an evolution, evolutionary slash revolutionary, not like as crazy as building out a new headset, but would be, I’m interested to see in, in what they come up with there.

46:21And, and what the reception is. I know I’m a day one buyer. I’m super interested to see how other people feel after like holding it in their hands.

46:29Yeah. We’ll see. And there’s much to come here. Obviously that’s going to play out over months and years here.

46:37Um, but I do want to touch on a few very, uh, near term things. One of them being hyper liquid, um, hyper liquid currently trading, I think around like $87, uh, $13 off its, you know, nibbling of the a hundred dollar price point.

46:55Um, there is an unlock happening, um, or not sure exactly how big it is. Uh, it’s either somewhere like a hundred million up to like a billion dollars worth of hype being unlocked here.

47:08Um, I will say that, and I’m so sorry, unfortunately we had a whole bunch of graphics that were going to be ready for the show, but Anthropic decided to go, uh, and have a, uh, some downtime here.

47:20But, um, um, I’m obsessed with the idea of who’s generating revenue and who is aligned with the current admin and the CTFC and the SEC and where things headed.

47:32I think the advisory from the SEC on an SCTFC on a token buybacks is a very strong case, uh, for hyper liquid.

47:42I think you’re going to see a very strong adoption of hyper liquid with companies like, uh, allegedly Kraken who have the licensing to offer this to us customers.

47:53And I think money speaks to the end of the day. Can you cashflow and can you profit flow? Um, and nobody does it like hyper liquid.

48:00I’m waiting for this to stabilize here. Um, we’ll see what this unlock does, but it could be another for the, uh, it’s been the theme of hyper liquid.

48:11Another bullish unlock, um, pawns, another one, uh, that has been, uh, a very, a very notable part of this, uh, revenue conversation right now for those that are listening who are like, oh, what, what are the main characters in this revenue, uh, world?

48:30It is the ponds is pump is hyper liquid. Um, and there’s even, you know, if we’re going to the edge case here and it was saying, I want to talk about was cards, which is collector’s crypt.

48:41Um, all these companies have great volume.

48:45They have user cases that a consumer actually wants to go and use the product, uh, every day. And I think the alignment, uh, that we’re getting out of the government agencies who are kind of taking the place of Congress, uh, make you say, okay, well, I’ll, I’ll come play.

49:03Uh, and I will say the winners here will ultimately probably be the ones with the most distribution.

49:09And that is, that is to my thesis of hyper liquid. Nobody has a builder program like hyper liquid.

49:16Um, and I think pump also, nobody has a distribution marketing campaign and the almost mindshare that they, they’ve established over the years.

49:26And when you think about ponds, when you think about companies like stonk fun, um, you really have to understand distributions, the end game.

49:35Uh, and I think Elon has it absolutely cornered here. What a crazy chart.

49:40I mean, we were talking about it at the lows on the show.

49:43If you had played that out, you’re up a nice two X on size, almost three X, three X, excuse me.

49:50Um, man, I should have kept that 10 X love open. I would have absolutely eaten on this.

49:57Um, But look, this is an incredible chart. I’m expecting more out of this company.

50:04I will say that you can never think of PUMP as a singular product.

50:11Like, hey, they only have the launch pad. Hey, they only have the trading terminal.

50:17I’m of the understanding that they’ve been operating dozens of companies that they’ve never claimed and that they’re basically experimenting on a weekly basis to find the next kind of, you know, jumping point that has all the attention.

50:33They’ve dabbled in AI, they’re dabbling in consumer trading, they’re dabbling in prediction markets.

50:40They understand that, well, you can’t rely on just having the launch pad be your only surface area and that be what holds up over the years.

50:50And I think that’s what defines a great company to survive the competitiveness that they’re seeing, not only in the meme coin market, but now they’re being pushed to the equities market where everybody seems to be crowding around, pairing these equities with meme coins or meme equities.

51:09Very excited for what we have going here.

51:11What a chart, though. What a crazy chart.

51:16But all of these are probably, you know, I’m curious to get your take here on the crypto market, which is a little bit at the mercy of Trump right now, or more at the mercy of the Iran deal.

51:28Oil also falling into this.

51:31Trump rejected the seven-day ceasefire.

51:34We saw a lot of weakness around that.

51:36A little bit of uncertainty into what CPE will offer tomorrow, if that’s going to come in hot or not.

51:44Look, I think the bull case here is we see Trump come back to the table.

51:50Iran come to the table. We get some good forward-looking guidance there.

51:58Risk probably becomes really just on what are rates at that point.

52:05So I think that, I mean, I think oil is telling you that whatever Trump said this morning is a nothing burger, and it’s probably just negotiating posturing, because if that was the case, oil would be flying today, and it’s selling off.

52:19To me, I think the more interesting thing to look at is the price of gold, which broke down yesterday.

52:26That’s why I put on my Bitcoin short yesterday.

52:30I covered it this morning, and now it looks like it’s starting to sell off, so I’m a little annoyed about that.

52:35I literally covered that high there.

52:38My original stock was up here, and then it just looked like it wasn’t selling off because I expected it to sell off last night.

52:44And then now it looks like it’s starting to sell off again.

52:48But I think that, to me, it’s more of, like, as gold goes and whatever gold is doing, Bitcoin will be closely correlated to it, because I just think that they’re the liquidity indicators.

53:01And so, yeah, rates are...

53:03If you compare the two charts, they’ve kind of diverged at this point, no?

53:07I wouldn’t say they diverge. Like, I think that, like, yeah, they diverge here and there, but, like, I do think ultimately they’re, like, very correlated.

53:15To me, like, they’re still the same trade.

53:17Okay, so wait, this is Bitcoin.

53:20Can we look at the, like, four-hour on Bitcoin and gold?

53:24I feel like they have.

53:26Here’s the four-hour. Well, gold’s broken down more, right?

53:29Yeah. But, like, I think if you look at this up move, this led Bitcoin, right?

53:35This was faster out of the gate than Bitcoin was.

53:40So if you want to take a look at, like, which one’s leading the other, like, this move happened after gold already moved.

53:47You know what I mean? So, like, gold has been selling off, and I think at some point, like, there could be, you know, a gap fill lower.

53:54I’m not saying it goes to lows. I’m not saying we’re going to 60K. But, I mean, I don’t think, like, this 76K region is, like, totally out of the question.

54:03No, it’s totally not out of the question.

54:06CP comes in hot tomorrow, and Trump, you know, does something crazy.

54:10You could see.

54:13So, yeah. So, I just think, like, to me, like, even though, like, to me, again, I just, correlations work until they don’t.

54:19And so, I just think you have to be, especially around these, like, turning points when they’re, like, diverging a little bit.

54:26Like, people look, you know, from one way or the other to tell their story.

54:31And I’m just like, yeah, I mean, I think when gold sells off this fast, that quick, Bitcoin could have, like, a risk-off trade.

54:38And I just thought it was worth putting out a short.

54:40And, like, I covered literally the high of the day today when I should have kept my stop above, whatever, 85.4, which was my original stop, and let it run.

54:51But, yeah, I mean, I still think this could probably, I might reenter it later today if it, like, pops up or whatever.

54:59But, to me, it’s all dependent on what gold’s doing because it’s all, like, a liquidity trade, right?

55:04And so, again, we popped here.

55:06This was literally when Besson said he was buying the long end of the curve.

55:10We had this huge up move.

55:13Gold has retraced pretty much all of it, most of it at this point.

55:19But then also, right, like, you also have to take that with the fact that, like, gold has been much stronger than Bitcoin has over the last year, right?

55:27And so those are, like, things you have to take into account as well.

55:34A hundred percent.

55:37Man, like, I feel like this makes me want to short for the first time in a minute.

55:44But, like, I mean, again, like, if you short, you just have to be, like, very tight, right?

55:50Like, at the most, like, you short to, like, the high of the up move.

55:53But, like, if you want to get bigger, you know, like, again, I moved it lower.

55:57And when I moved my stop lower, I’m like, I’m going to get fucking stopped out.

56:00And this thing’s going to go back to the lows.

56:01And that’s exactly what it did. Meanwhile, I should have just kept my risk at what I originally risked, right?

56:08But it is what it is. Because that’s part of trading.

56:12I think other majors following along here.

56:17I know Solana has been a huge contestant to the Robinhood on-chain equities market.

56:27I saw reports this morning that Solana has finally found a way to bring on more equity exposure than Robinhood, which I find shocking, actually.

56:38But you know the Solana Foundation is sitting here probably thinking we need to do everything in our, you know, possible path to not lose this kind of consumer, you know, magic garden that they had for the last two years, which was if anybody was trading, it was happening on Solana.

56:59You might have had a little base season.

57:00You might have had a little Binance season.

57:02But for the most part, it’s all been happening, at least the consumer retail side has all been on Solana.

57:10And for the first time since then, Robinhood has kind of taken that away, the meme coin trading, the on-chain equities, that exposure.

57:18And then now the foundation has basically said, we’re bringing everything on-chain now.

57:24And basically, I believe it’s, you know, there’s like 10% more available equities to trade on Solana.

57:31Don’t quote me on that. That was from a tweet I saw this morning.

57:35But I do know that Solana is trying to hold down the fort at this point.

57:44But it does raise that question of, okay, Solana’s bringing on equities, Robinhood’s brought on equities.

57:50You know, every other chain is going to bring on equities.

57:53Then it just becomes like, all right, well, who has the best, you know, the fastest chain?

57:57It’s going to have the, you know, the tightest quoting, the tightest, the most liquidity.

58:05And that will probably be the endgame for, okay, it doesn’t, I don’t care what chain it’s on.

58:10I just want the best experience as a consumer.

58:12When I click buy of, you know, Google, right?

58:15I don’t care. I really don’t care if it’s on Solana. Just make it happen for me.

58:22Yeah, I mean, I agree. I think that everybody realizes that tokenized equities are the big green space that everybody’s battling for now.

58:35So this, to me, is not surprising.

58:38I think everybody’s going to be working really hard to bring on-chain equities to their ecosystem.

58:44Can I rant real quick here?

58:48And we’ll bring up the charts in a second here.

58:50Everybody’s trying to bring on-chain equities right now.

58:54You know, the other thing that everybody’s bringing is integrating, and I completely disagree with some of the position, or I disagree with some of the reactions to this.

59:05The collection space, I think, is going to be massive.

59:09Coinbase yesterday announcing that they’re adding, you know, on-chain collectible cards, you know, sports cards, collectible cards, Pokemon cards, to their suite of features and services.

59:24I think everybody’s looking at the gacha mechanic game and saying, wow, look at all this money.

59:30FWA is a great example of this. Look at all the money they generate, all the volume they generate.

59:35And obviously, consumers at this point love it.

59:38And they’re like, all right, on-chain collectible cards.

59:41We love it. Vaults, et cetera. I disagree with the reaction of everybody thinking this is going to be a massive profit and revenue center for Coinbase.

59:51I think certainly people will use it.

59:53However, I think better positioned is OpenSea, who...

59:57I think it’s going to be a massive profit and revenue center for Coinbase. I think it’s going to be a massive profit and revenue center for Coinbase. I think it’s going to be a massive profit and revenue center for Coinbase. I think it’s going to be a massive profit and revenue center for Coinbase.

59:57I think it’s going to be a massive profit and revenue center for Coinbase. I think it’s going to be a massive profit and revenue center for Coinbase. Has never been in a better position, I think, as a company ever.

1:00:02But I don’t think it will pop.

1:00:03I think it has a huge marketing spend.

1:00:05I think it takes a ton of effort to stay top of mind.

1:00:11And I don’t think Coinbase will see that same return as, per se, if you were to see PumpFun launch a competing service or, again, OpenSea also launching this service a week earlier.

1:00:25I think they’ll have far more revenue generated from this because it is what their consumer base comes to do.

1:00:30And that is not what you are going to Coinbase to do right now.

1:00:34Yeah, I think. No, I agree with that.

1:00:38We should have spoken about it earlier, but that for sure was something that popped up on the timeline yesterday that I thought was interesting.

1:00:46It reminded me a lot of, like, the Coinbase NFT marketplace where it’s just kind of like, it’s just like not what you guys do.

1:00:54And, like, again, it’s more when I saw OpenSea kind of come out with their product last week.

1:00:59I was like, all right, that makes sense because your Pokemon card collector – like, there’s a lot of NFT guys that are collecting Pokemon cards, right?

1:01:07And so – but I don’t know how many people that use Coinbase either as a trading platform or for their crypto whatever, right?

1:01:18What’s the premise you’re doing?

1:01:20Let’s see.

1:01:27Let’s take a look at the daily.

1:01:29I mean, it’s tracking the price of Bitcoin, it looks like.

1:01:33Yeah. Yeah. No, nothing. At the lows of the day, but, you know, so is Bitcoin.

1:01:38So I wouldn’t say that that announcement has any material effect.

1:01:42But, like, to me, it’s more – yeah, the thing is, like, I don’t know why, right?

1:01:48And so, again, I – you know, somebody I thought brought up this interesting comment.

1:01:53And, again, I don’t think we know the details of this gotcha platform just yet.

1:01:59But somebody was like, well, if you’re going to – if Coinbase is going to build this on their own, like, what – like, if they’re going to build this on their own and not utilize base, like, why should anybody build on base?

1:02:10I was like – I think that it showed up on Inverse Bra, but, like, it’s – because it’s, like – it makes sense, right?

1:02:19Like, they’re, like, sitting here and trying to be, like, build on base, and then we may or may not build a competing product that we feed directly into, like, the Coinbase platform.

1:02:31I don’t know. I think it was interesting.

1:02:35Because I – What would you have done different – if you were running Coinbase, what would you have done differently with the NFT marketplace?

1:02:40That you think Coinbase should do now to establish a winning position in the on-chain collectible cards market?

1:02:52What would I have done differently? I probably would have launched the NFT marketplace.

1:02:58Because, like, again, this – Why? So, this goes back to – so, like, I remember with 9DCC, right?

1:03:06Like, there were a lot of people – this was, like, in the middle of, like, base season.

1:03:11A lot of people were, like – I think when they launched, like, the base app, and they were, like, okay, like, you know, we’ll get you distribution on Coinbase.

1:03:19And I was always, like, distribution on Coinbase does nothing for 9DCC because, like, nobody goes to Coinbase to buy a t-shirt, right?

1:03:28People go to Coinbase to buy crypto.

1:03:30If I want to buy Ethereum, I want to buy Bitcoin, like, I’ll go to something in crypto, I’ll buy it.

1:03:34I’m not going to Coinbase to say, how do I spend my money?

1:03:38And I think that was, like, the issue with NFTs.

1:03:42I think that was – you know, like, it’s, like, because people are – I guess to a lesser extent because people were definitely speculating on NFTs and people wanted to do that through Coinbase.

1:03:52I think probably what would have made more sense is, like, some sort of partnership with OpenSea, you know, who was, like – I’m sure there was – there had to be a discussion there, right?

1:04:04I’m sure there was a discussion.

1:04:06I don’t know what – you know, who knows how it ended.

1:04:09Obviously, nothing came to fruition.

1:04:12But, yeah, I just – I think it’s going to be interesting to see if this gotcha platform is built in-house or if they’re part – I don’t know who the largest, like, gotcha platform on base is or if they’re going to, like – I love the good point. I mean, that collector – or cards popped on the news yesterday.

1:04:31It was up big, and I think it’s pulled back a little bit from that.

1:04:35But isn’t cards, like, Solana, part of the Solana ecosystem?

1:04:38Right, and I think people are assuming, like, well, it has to be – it’s going to be cards or somebody similar.

1:04:45But – or for at least that sector, right?

1:04:48Like, that is the ultimate signal to see Coinbase saying, like, we took time and energy and are stamping this as, like, something we want in our ecosystem.

1:04:57I just keep coming back to they will fall – they will have to spend an insane amount of money on marketing to convince not only their existing customer base, but even the existing vertical that is wanting to collect these cards to come to Coinbase to do it.

1:05:13Yeah, I agree. I think that, like, I would have probably done it as, like, a separate brand, like, whatever, like, packrip.com or, like, whatever name they would have come up with.

1:05:29But, yeah, I think it’s just – I think it’s interesting.

1:05:32But, again, I don’t think we have enough information, right?

1:05:35So it’s like if they – because, like, here’s the other thing, too, right?

1:05:38So – Do we? Like, we know – I mean, well, look what they did with prediction markets.

1:05:42It’ll be – they’re going to probably go bar for bar what they did there, and they’re going to build this off of somebody else’s infrastructure.

1:05:49And if it takes off and, you know, it’s killing it, they’ll think about bringing it inside, and they’ll build it out themselves.

1:05:56They’ve got the capital to do it. But we don’t know who their partner is, right?

1:05:59We don’t. I don’t think we do. So, like, I mean, I don’t think it’s collector’s crypt because collector’s crypt is Solana-centric.

1:06:08All right. And, you know, like, even, like – I mean, don’t people, like, always complain to Coinbase for the fact that, like, they hold Solana deposits and withdrawals, like, for sometimes hours?

1:06:22Like, I feel like I’ve read that online where, like, they hold stuff, like, for longer.

1:06:26Like, if it’s on – like, if it’s on base, it happens in, like, two seconds, but if it’s on Solana, it takes, like, an hour or two or something.

1:06:33So it’s like I wouldn’t feel like they’re really aligned to collector’s crypts, so it would have to be, like, an EVM partner.

1:06:40I don’t know who the biggest EVM partner is.

1:06:44Courtyard maybe, but Courtyard’s on Polygon maybe, right?

1:06:48I don’t know, right? And so I think I’d be really interested to see what that looks like, the back end.

1:06:56Are they doing it on their – because, like, here’s the thing, right?

1:06:58Like, this – a gotcha mechanic isn’t that hard to build.

1:07:02Like, I’ve built them on my own with cloud code.

1:07:06You know what I mean? Like, it’s like the hard part is, like, the distribution and making sure you get the community engagement and making sure you have the inventory.

1:07:12That’s all it is. That is all it is. And that’s why I’m saying, you know, if I’m going to bet on a company to be the best market and distribution company in the space and to dominate, I don’t think Coinbase is there.

1:07:28And that’s, again, no hate to Coinbase.

1:07:30Obviously, you’ve done a lot of great stuff, and they have a great product, and they’re worth billions and billions of dollars.

1:07:35But my mind does not go there.

1:07:40Yeah, listen, I know they’ve been, like, trying to figure out consumer for a really long time.

1:07:45They brought some really talented people in.

1:07:47I just – like, again, I just think it’s really hard because in my head – and I feel like I’m probably not the only one.

1:07:54In my head, when I think of Coinbase, I’m like, oh, buy and sell crypto coins, not buy and sell NFTs, not buy and sell creator coins, not buy and sell Pokemon cards.

1:08:08Well, the good news is – the best news about this is that we’re getting Jesse Packrip opening edits for sure coming on base to us at some point here where he’s going to go to the streets and go up to people and basically be like, do you want to open Pokemon cards with me?

1:08:27And they’ll do it on the Coinbase app, and it’ll be the exact same thing we had before.

1:08:33And I don’t know how he’ll get away with it, but he’ll get away with it once again.

1:08:40So, yeah. So, again, like, excited to kind of – to see that.

1:08:44I mean, the other side of it is, like, is this the top?

1:08:46Because, like, didn’t Coinbase NFTs launch at the top?

1:08:50I’ve been seeing some top signals in the card collecting space, man.

1:08:54I feel like, you know, Path, Cryptopath, Cryptopathic, who was probably one of the first Pokemon bulls on the timeline that I saw a couple years ago, has basically been tweeting out that he’s been selling his stuff and, like, quote tweeting, like, some big sales of being like, this is closer to the top.

1:09:12We’re pretty close to the top. And so he has really good market timing.

1:09:17So, yeah. But, like, again, like, I also know the madness of markets, and things can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

1:09:26So I wouldn’t recommend people to go out and start shorting stuff.

1:09:30Yeah. I mean, shorting Pokemon cards is probably on the furthest edge of degenerate behavior you can probably do in this market.

1:09:41But, hey, a dollar is a dollar, and if there’s a way to make money on it, we’ll obviously be covering it here on Fullport.

1:09:51What else? Do we have anything else that we missed that we want to go over here in the closing minutes of the show at all?

1:09:56No, I think that’s it. Yeah, got some new graphics, new transitions, obviously trying to elevate the show as always.

1:10:06Please make sure you are following us on X at Full Port Show, following us on Spotify if you want to get this audio form while you drive to work or commuting, YouTube, Instagram, TikTok.

1:10:21We’re on every social media website so you can follow us there. It supports and helps us quite a bit.

1:10:28And yeah, as always, I’m just trying to bring you the best information on what’s happening in the financial markets.

1:10:36Anything, G, to close out the show here?

1:10:38No, that’s it. See you guys on Thursday.

1:10:40We’ll see you on Thursday, 10 a.m. Eastern Time, and enjoy your Wednesdays and the rest of your Tuesdays.

1:10:45Cheers.