Bonds Disaster, Meta Muse, and HYPE Prediction plus Trading Updates

0:58Good morning. What’s up, everybody? How are you? Welcome to Full Port. It’s myself and co-host Hunter Orrell talking about all Market News today. He wanted me to run the intro today.

1:10I lost my initial privileges after calling you my guest yesterday.

1:14Oh, yeah, yeah. Okay, fair. Whatever, however you want to frame it. But yes, I’m coming at you with the intro today. Thank you for tuning in. Today, we’re going to be talking about a little bit of macro to start with the bond market. Want to get into a little bit about meta and then obviously things that are happening in crypto. But yeah, I feel like a decent amount has happened since our show on Tuesday. And I think, Hunter, we should probably start off with bonds, right?

1:44Like I think yesterday, interestingly enough, the 30 year and the 10 year, if you want to share my screen real quick, rates just shot up all day yesterday.

1:59Not good thing. Not things you want to be seeing happening right now.

2:03Yeah. So basically, the way I interpret this, right, is basically the bond market is calling Bessin’s bluff, right? I think he was able to kind of maintain rates below 5% for some period of time. And then, you know, we’ve started to see things getting worse, right? We’re back, we made a new high this morning, we’ve since like, retreated a little bit. So obviously, I feel like that’s been a little bit of an overhang on stocks in general. Interestingly enough, like just looking at my AI portfolio, it was down yesterday a little bit, but like not down all that much. So even though I think inflation is an issue that the market is obviously like thinking about, I think number one thing is oil and you know, you want to see what oil is doing, seems like it bottomed at 88. Going up a little bit, I think it’s going to be very prone to headlines there. And I listen, I think, as we get into we’re about, what is this five, six weeks from midterms. And I think as we’re in the heart of election season, Iran will probably be trying to use that to its advantage the way it can, knowing that the higher oil prices stay, the tougher time that Trump is going to have with the midterms.

3:26I think already, I was looking at Polymarket yesterday where, you know, up until I think about a couple of days ago, it was a coin flip for the Senate. And now, where I think the Dems are 65% expected to win. So their odds have gone up significantly. And I think like the big issue here is the market is calling best in spluff and oil prices are staying high. So people feel like inflation may become an issue. And I think that’s kind of what happening, like literally right before we turn this on. So I don’t know like the implications of this, I have to like look into it. But Oracle got hit this morning because they declared force majeure on their data center build out, because I guess costs were running so high. So I don’t really know what force majeure means in terms of data center build.

4:23Force majeure, I feel like in the mining sector and in natural disasters has more to do with like, you know, if the elements do something that you can’t really handle, and you know, you kind of need to like declare force majeure. I really don’t understand. Force majeure is like, it’s like waving a wand and being like, all right, everybody is like forgiven from their obligations or like legal, like coughs, I feel, I believe that would be the best way to put it. Okay.

4:55All right. So then like, it usually happens with like natural disasters. Yeah, it’s like, it’s like we weren’t expecting a blizzard in Austin, Texas, who could have expected, you know, like, what, what, what’s that doing there? All right, force majeure, because there are just truly unprecedented expectations. That is not something that, you know, you want to be seeing happen in the data center sector. Right. So I mean, I guess like, Nebbius is at the highs of the day. So maybe if less data centers are getting built because costs are out of control, current data centers that are, you know, we have a supply constraint on inference and, you know, maybe this comes back to your trade here. This is a choke point for a lot of the production that is going to be in high demand for certainly the next decade. So yeah, so like, I don’t, we can get into that in a second. I just kind of want to go back to the bonds real quick, because like the, the, the third year I was just showing, and then like the 10 years, like, again, it’s retreated a little bit. I think the main issue here is that the market is calling Bessin’s bluff. And everything that he said that he was going to do in August is now like, okay, well, now you need to do more. Right. And so I think the, the

6:18macroeconomic implications of this is, I think what we’ve seen in terms of Bitcoin has caught a bid over the last obviously few weeks. Where’s, where’s the Bitcoin chart on here? BTC, here we go.

6:35Bitcoin has obviously been strong over the last few weeks. And it looks like, you know, there was a sell off after that, like strong up move, but it looks like maybe we put in the bottom on that for, for this pullback, at least like short term. And I’d be super curious to see what gold is doing.

6:54And interestingly enough, I mean, gold hasn’t really caught a bid yet. Right. And so I think that personally, like the way I’m reading this is that like the mark, like Bessin’s going to need to step in and do something, which is defend, defend rates at some point.

7:16He can’t keep playing the sideline game, essentially, which he’s like, I’m going to, yeah, well, like, so basically like what happened is like he said, I forgot exactly the number that he said, but he’s like, we were going to buy bonds here to like support the price and keep rates, rates lower. And kind of like the market’s calling his bluff. He’s like, all right, well, you said, I think the number might’ve been like 8 billion. I don’t even know. I don’t remember the exact number, but basically the bond market saying, Hey, you need to like catch more. You need to, you need to spend more. And obviously the more they spend, that’s basically printing money because they’re printing money to keep rates lower. That’s literally yield curve control. And so basically that’s bullish, I think for hard assets, right? So again, I still, in this environment, I think there could be turbulence, you know, and we brought up a couple of times on the show, like Trump is probably, you know, he probably has alerts every hundred points on the S&P and NASDAQ.

8:18He might just have a monitor going. Yeah, I’m sure he has like a live ticker stream of like the markets up or down. And that’s his barometer for how he’s doing. So whenever the market’s down, you know, he’s like probably on the phone with Besant being like, what are you going to do to keep this up, especially going into election season. So I think it’s, you know, just, you know, we’re getting into the swing of things or, you know, Micron has earnings next week.

8:45I actually was thinking of buying some calls yesterday. I was like starting to think about it.

8:52Yeah. Just cause like here was last quarter’s numbers, right? This was it gapped up and then like sold off and then everybody is like, you know, Micron top, you know, hardware topped, whatever. And it hasn’t done anything for a quarter. And if numbers coming good and specifically, like I think if they probably announced some sort of buyback cause they’re like printing cash hand over fist, I think this thing probably like gaps and goes, right? Cause again, like, I think people are calling their bluff. Everyone’s like peaky PS, peaky PS. And I think even if that gets pushed out a couple quarters, I think that just changes how you need to rerate things.

9:32Again, they’re printing money hand over fist at some point.

9:37That’s going to be like returned as capital to shareholders. Right. And so I think like that’s like the case with like Nvidia as well, although Nvidia needs to like invest into the stack, right? Which is kind of what we’ve seen that they’ve been doing. And that’s how they’ve been like, you need to point cash, which I think is good for like longer term shareholder returns. But I, you know, like I think in an environment like this, probably the most bang for their buck that Micron could get is probably announcing some sort of like accelerated share repurchase program or maybe a dividend. But I think like a share repurchase program probably is, is better, I would think. But because it costs it, it brings by pressure into the stock. But yeah, I mean, I think all eyes are on like, when is, when is the peak, right? And I think that’s for the last like quarter, since they reported everyone’s like peaky PS, peaky PS, you know, there’s competition coming, this is the best they’ll ever be. And so like, you know, I think it’ll determine the next direction, the next gap, in terms of where Micron goes. But I’m like, I like it probably be like a small position that I would like YOLO, like short dated calls off the,

10:43you know, I actually you know what I was thinking of, like, I think I might buy, I might split the position into, and I might buy on chain calls through hyper call and put on a perps position on one of the perps platforms and just see how do a side by side comparison of the two as a hedge or just compare like a straight direct comparison, like both a straight direct comparison because like, I think it’s, again, like I personally like options in the sense that I put on the position. And like, I can hold it till expiration, and I’m either right or wrong, depending on like how much the move is. What my issue is with perps is if I get too levered, I can get like wicked out and then it goes right. And so then like, I just like, I want to see a side by side comparison kind of like talk to the I’m going to talk to the trade on x, and see like, which one is more profitable if I’m right and which one do I lose less if I’m wrong, right. And so, you know, we’ll see. I think it’ll be I think that’ll be interesting because like I think for the first time, like you can do all of this on chain. So like I don’t like in the past, like I’m going to do all this on chain, whereas in the past, I’d like, you know, obviously,

11:55obviously options, I would do that in my interactive broker’s account and perps I would do through crypto. So I think it’d be interesting. I think like this will determine, you know, the next move of where like the AI trade goes short term. And then we have earning season in two weeks. You know, how’s the position has he hasn’t changed, like he’s still going along.

12:18So Leopold had the only one I he put on like these massive call options, like literally, I think it was like right here, right, right before all the AI guys were were like, you know, regulate us. And I know the Micron call strikes were I think for like early October expiration, the thousand dollar strike. So he’s probably he’s probably about break even, I think, at this point, but like yesterday, he was probably like up. But yeah, I mean, he’s he’s been right directionally.

12:52But I think the real question is like, he’s now in a race against time, right? Because like, these things expire, I think, in like two or three weeks. So he basically is, it seems like he’s made just make you wouldn’t, you wouldn’t take this. But my thing is like, he wouldn’t take this on knowing there are earnings between then and his strike price, right? Like he’s he’s well, oh, for sure. Like, there’s no way like there’s there’s also some premium in the options because of that, right? Because you know that there’s going to be a gap event one way or the other. But like, again, like he probably he has better information on what’s happening in AI than you and me. And we will, we got to we got to marry somebody that’s in the C suite and one of these AI companies and get that that sweet, sweet information flow that Leopold has.

13:40Who knows his wife might be a like a sleep talker, that might be the whole the whole lever, the whole edge case here is that she just talks in his sleep. And that is how he’s so good.

13:52And that’s how he’s doing it, right? Who knows? I would watch that movie.

13:56Um, um, look, I guess my question here is like, as someone who’s not under like a full on like bonds expert, and probably at this point, kind of just sitting on his hands on the AI trade, where you’re you’re going to place these calls? Are you are you feeling uneasy? Are you feeling like this should be like an exciting moment? I’m just I want to like, understand your temperament to this like, kind of important moment. I feel like, listen, and like, I think there’s probably a good segue to get into metas announcements yesterday. But I just think that this is like the call we’ve been making on the show for the last couple of months, couple of weeks, right is like, AI agents is going to cause an explosion of demand for inference, as people are going to go from what’s the weather, or write this email to buy this, right? Do this, right? Even like, I think to create this too, like I messaged you last night, that was a like, mouth wide open gasp of holy crap, I will spend hundreds of dollars on this every month now, because it just things out to taking me 20 hours in 10 minutes. Right? Yeah.

15:17And so like, yeah, I just feel so I feel comfortable with the positions that I have on. And I’m like, I’m, I’m indefinitely hold this because I also have with the with the options that I have, I have a long, a long time till expiration, right? And then like, again, if the data changes, if the information changes after they report, and I feel like, oh, this, you know, there might be more risks than, you know, I can either cut down risk, or I can take the positions off or whatever. And at that point, it’s not really about, like, I think in those types of scenarios, it’s not like, oh, like, let me, you know, if it’s down 5%, I’m like, oh, if it goes down 3%, I’ll get out, whatever. It’s like, I think personally, in those things, like, there’s new information, if I’m down, like, get out, right? Like, whatever I lost, I lost, and then like, just manage risk of losing more, right? And so it’s like, you kind of get out, like, whenever, what, at whatever price you can, if the information changes, I’m going to take a small position on short dated calls, because even though the longer term trend could be right, which is where my longer dated calls fall, the short term could be like, you know, gap up,

16:27sell off, or gap down, and like, starts to rally. But then like, if I like, if I’m long calls into the into the number, and it sells off, like, you know, like, those are zeros, for the most part, right? It’s like, unless I’m like, oh, this, the market’s wrong, this thing is actually going to be a buy down, and it goes from like, red to green, then, you know, I’ll probably, I’ll probably be buying some into that. But yeah, like, I like the short dated calls are going to be more speculative, because I don’t really, it really depends on like positioning, right? So like, kind of going into it, we’re going to have another show before they report, I think they report next Wednesday. Yep. So I’ll have like a better idea, a better sense of what positions like going into the number as of right now, I feel like, from my high level view, I feel like positioning can’t be that strong, considering what it’s like on the chart. And a lot of there’s been a lot of bears that have been very vocal, very included, right? As well as like, a bunch of other, you know, Wall Street guys that are like, Oh, we’re at peak margins, peak earnings. And then like, I’ll decide it’s like, you know, I’ll size it, it’ll be like

17:31small, but like, try to, you know, to make, you know, some multiples of whatever I’m risking.

17:37And if I’m wrong, like, obviously, like, I lose probably, at least on the option side, I would lose like, you know, at least 80% of the premium, if not 100, right? And so size it according, right? And that’s kind of how I’m looking into it. So I’ll probably be doing that as like the speculative bet. But like, long term, I’m still comfortable in the other stuff. And again, my thesis is subject to change, depending on new information that comes out in the earnings report.

18:17And I think that’s going to be coming out of whatever cave they’ve been sleeping in and saying, Hey, we want to play at the big boys table. Not only on AI, not only on agentic stuff with Muse, but also on the hardware side, I think creating some absolutely beautiful wearables on the glasses side of the chair higher. Zuck has a new movie coming out, it even seems like it feels like the running the early playbook back again here. On top of that, Zuck also is just getting absolute hate across the board.

18:58And there’s like this huge pushback on him. What’s your what’s the hate that he’s been getting?

19:05There’s a lot of hate about how he has already taken advantage of America’s youth, put addictive mechanics in front of them already. And you really want a lovable character like Muse now interacting with your kid, and for your kid to be wearing something that he’s created.

19:23They’ve crushed on the UI and the UX side, I will give them that like, no, no hate there.

19:30I do think that he has this like lurking skeleton in the closet of like, what have you done before?

19:36Where have you drawn the line? I really haven’t. And now you have a lot of this is, I think, politically fueled as well. So it’s funny, because like, I think the I saw a lot of praise on the timeline last night for the stuff that they talked about, which we’ll get into in a second.

19:58I also think they spent big on that praise, though, I think a lot of that paid.

20:02The the only thing that I saw that was negative was a video of him playing beer pong, where he very clearly leaned his elbow way over the line. And I was like, Oh, that’s like, nah, that’s not good. Right? That’s not good. Like, you’re, you’re clearly breaking the rules while you’re playing beer pong. I haven’t played beer pong in 1520 years at this point.

20:261520 years is the last time you played beer pong.

20:28Yeah, yeah, dude, I mean, I don’t drink anymore. So like, what what reason do I have to play beer pong? So anyway, that was kind of like the only negative stuff I saw. And like, listen, I think, to Zuck’s credit, whoever he hired as his PR team, a couple years ago, has done an incredible job because he went from like, and like, to his credit, and also to Dario and Sam’s missed credit, like, you guys are so bad that you’re making Zuck look like the good guy. Right. And so yeah, like, it just like, I always, you know, even like this entire rebrand, you know, Bates Zuck, and you know, like, Chad Zuck, that he’s been doing for the last couple years, that I think pretty much started probably, I think, when he realized that Trump was going to win, right, like after Elon came out and was like, I’m supporting Trump, and I’m sure Zuck probably has the most data on what without a doubt, without a doubt on planet Earth. So it’s almost like he was like, oh, Trump is going to win, you know, hire PR firm, change my image, and you know, be more like right wing than left wing. Because like, up until that point, you know, Facebook was also part of like, the censoring scandal of like, censoring people during COVID,

21:53and all that stuff, right. And so it’s like, people have like, forgotten about it. And, you know, like, he’s like a chameleon, right? Like, it’s like, but all these like, we even just saw this with Brian Armstrong, you know, pondering to Hunter Biden on the timeline. And I saw a lot of people pushing back and be like, why is Brian Armstrong coddling Hunter Biden on the timeline right after he runs the scam and a rug? Well, because mid like, the elections are on the corner. And they all these guys are like, well, if you know, if the democrats take over office, I want to be on their good side. And I want to have it in. And I want to be to pull you know, a couple cards on my backpack and be like, remember that time? Oh, yeah, we were friendly, like, I need this favor versus like, and everybody’s going to be doing this.

22:41Um, I don’t do you do you think because that that would imply that all the tech CEOs pondered to politics. But I would say more than ever, tech CEOs are running America more and more. It’s this weird. It’s this weird dynamic. So I think that like, if you look, let’s say, probably throughout history, but even more so in the last let’s say 125 ish years, maybe since like 1900 ish, when I like, I think like in 1907, I think there was like a humongous bank panic, that basically like JP Morgan, like save the financials like the like the actual john Pierpont Morgan, like save the financial system, right? In 1907. So there was like a big bank run. And maybe it might have been like the late 1800s. And I think something that the finance guys realized at that point, and that was basically like what led probably to the creation of the Federal Reserve, is that they could almost be like this very intertwined entities that like could pull strings like from the shadows, right? And like, there’s probably instances of this happening with the Rothschilds in Europe throughout like, you know, the 1500 1600s, I don’t know exactly, but we see it, I think more and more in the United States, where these guys are like,

24:11yeah, it doesn’t necessarily matter who’s in power, the financial system success is so intertwined to everything in America that like, and we saw this, you know, with 2008, where there was like no option, but to bail out the financial system. And so like, at some point, it’s like, it’s like that, that, that like famous quote that people say, it’s like, if I owe the bank, like, you know, $10,000, that’s my problem. But if I owe the bank, like $10 billion, that’s the bank’s problem, right? And so you take that obviously to your multiples of that. And that’s kind of like what happens in 2008. And so I think what like the tech, you know, the tech elite have realized over the last 20 years with their rise of prominence, and definitely, I’d say, influence, right? Because like, like, Mark Zuckerberg, anybody that owns a social media platform can influence sentiment. And we’ve seen this with TikTok, right? Of like, we’ve discussed this on the show a bunch of times where if you look at TikTok in China, right, is a very different feed than TikTok in America. Yeah. And like, you know, you can make, you know, people have made these arguments of like, yeah, like, TikTok is like, cause brain rot and has ruined the youth,

25:31and their expectations of what life should be like, all because of the content that they’re consuming, right? So you take that on a grander basis, right? Like, you can influence people’s thoughts and their feelings towards certain things, right? Like you go, it’s really interesting, I think, to go on the threads feed versus like the x feed on the same topic. And just like, they’re totally like polar opposites in terms of reactions to the same, same topic. And so then, like, I think these guys in, in Silicon Valley have realized that like, they’re very influential, it doesn’t necessarily matter who’s in power. And they’re learning what I think, like the finance guys realized 100 something years ago. And also, it’s like, I’m sure they also realized it, but they also didn’t have enough influence in order to do it up until now. And they realized that, you know, they understand the tech, they might not have all of the money, you have to go to the finance guys to finance a lot of these visions, the data center build outs, all the robots, all this stuff, that money needs to come from somewhere, but they now have like a seat at the table. And they’re, they’re like, I think we kind of saw Peter Thiel, I think,

26:40realized this really early, right? Like, I think he was, I think more politically active, maybe like 10 or 15 years ago, then kind of realized he can pull like almost like a George Soros for his stuff and be like more or like what the Koch brothers did, right? Be more behind the scenes with super influential and then have other guys be the face of it. And so like, Elon is one, and I’m sure there’s like a lot of, a lot of right wing influencers that people call like, Teal’s guys or whatever. And it’s like the same, the same playbook, right? And like, they have money, they have billions of dollars. And it’s like, I think when you have that much money, you’re also like, all right, well, the next step is influence. And how do I maintain influence, right? And I think we’re seeing that, you know, obviously, all the AI labs are more public facing. To, you know, Zuck’s credit, I will say like, even though I personally think that there’s like, you know, he’s just like not trustworthy, because he’ll go from Oh, yeah, like, we’re gonna censor everybody to like, yeah, like, you know, we should be censorship free.

27:43And like, you know, based Zuck, and you know, guys wearing oversized t shirts and, you know, get lost in the name. Yeah, right. You know, like all that stuff. If I’m a shareholder of meta, it’s like, dude, he’s doing his fiduciary responsibility, right? He needs to make sure the company grows under any administration. And you know, there’s, there’s value accrual to shareholders. And he’s kind of doing what needs to be done, right? And if it’s like Trump’s in office right now, and then, you know, there, whoever, if Dems are in office next, he’s gonna have to play nice with both sides of the aisle, because that’s what’s good for business, right?

28:19So, so yeah, that was like, I guess, a long, a long way, like, of saying that these guys are gonna, they’re gonna play both sides of the aisle, right? And we’re seeing that not just in AI, but also in crypto, which has become like super, polarizing. And yeah, super political, which it shouldn’t be right, like, it should both sides of the aisle should want it.

28:42Because it is ultimately good for the everyday citizen in terms of being able to control their destiny and not be part of the system and, and have to be like, let’s say slaves to the system.

28:54But yeah, like, that’s like the state of the market and, and where we’re in, right? So, I think it’s, it’s gonna be interesting over the next six weeks, leading into the midterms, what people are doing. And then once, let’s say there’s any, once there’s like an inclination of what’s going to happen, then like, I think people will like take their stances, right? Because like, you don’t want to like, take your stance to support the side that loses. Because then like, once they lose, you’re, you’re kind of up. Yeah. Well, look, I do want to pull this back to like, where meta stands today, which is they they’re, they’re playing on the tech side at their top game that we’ve seen in a long time. And they’re executing well. Obviously, Xock is going to position the company in the best position, whether no matter what president is is in office. I’m impressed. I think that meta is highly undervalued for them actually taking over a large portion of the wearables market, as well as taking over a large portion of the consumer agentic market. And as I mentioned last show, I have a huge thesis around memory machines and memory banks.

30:09Being one of the most powerful and used areas within AI, and no other company has that memory bank, just like Facebook does. I made a note back to Facebook, basically training in one of the most insane sciops I’ve ever seen.

30:29When people are, do you remember when people are posting like, this is what I looked like as a kid, and this is what I look like at like 80 years old. And everybody was like, oh my god, you’re just giving Facebook all this training data. That is like one one millionth of you know, the data sets that they’ve built over what games are you playing? What are you liking? What are you engaging with? You know, who knows a lot about like browser history, and other other like third party data that they’ve gotten from from you doing use cases. They know you better than you know yourself at this point. And I think to have a company that is leaning this hard in to to this technology shift plus executing well on on the on the physical side, we’re going to see them probably continue to ship and continue to take market share away from some of these other labs, as well as some of these other companies like Apple, who has been a laggard in the physical space. Elon right now, totally outside of the physical space, you don’t see him doing anything.

31:32It’s just, you know, besides the car side, and the spaceship side. Right. Well, well, like you’re talking about the consumer physicals, right? So it’s like, I think what Meta has done, that’s very interesting. And we saw it. I don’t want to say it’s the combination, because I’m sure there’s a lot of other stuff that’s coming out. But one is like your little pocket assistant, your muse on this little device, keychain device, which I think is very cool. And it’s like, people are like, oh, it’s going to be the modern day Tamagotchi.

32:00I’ll probably buy it, right? If I had to guess, I think it’s coming out before Christmas, probably.

32:04So it’ll probably be like the next labubu where everyone’s hanging it everywhere. Although, like, I do wonder, like, you know, like somebody steals it, does that mean they can like access all your shit? Like, I don’t know, I’m sure there’s like some sort of security feature.

32:19That’s one. And then what I thought was even cooler than that was the glasses that they announced that are coming out, I think in like spring of next year in 2027, where they’re very AR like, they’re obviously like, listen, Meta has been working on hardware for like, you know, since they bought Oculus, right? So it’s probably like 10 plus years in the making.

32:44Oculus has gotten smaller. And then also they’ve had like the Meta Ray-Ban glasses for the last couple of years. And those are like when I see AR glasses in the wild, they’re only it’s only Meta. Like I haven’t seen I know there’ve been like a couple startups and obviously Snap came out with their thing. The Snap ones like are just too big and clunky. Like, they just don’t look cool. Snap had their event not that long ago, I think it was like last week that another event for the glasses that Alex Earl there. But as I’ve told you, I’ve used my being in a lot of these like influencer chats and knowing a lot of the people running these influencer agencies, I use that as a waiting on. If I see a bunch of posts, I can understand did this company just spend like $10 million? Can you share my screen real quick? I have a long term chart for Snap. It’s just but Snap Snap feels like from their event, it feels like they brought in a bunch of big name influencers, and a bunch of hot girls, and they had all these people post and talk it up. And at least while I was watching, I was like, this is not compared to what’s out there. This is not competitive in any way. Clearly, the market feels the same way. Clearly, your past comments about Evan using this as his personal piggy bank

34:07was like, are not going anywhere. Like, the chart says everything, right? Like, Snap has Snap is like, oh, I think Snap is like, has sick DAUs, right? Like, there’s anybody like under the age of 21, like, is on Snap. I don’t use Snap. But like, I know, like every the youth loves Snap.

34:28You would think otherwise, looking at this chart, right? And that comes down to what I repeatedly said, right? Of like, Evan Spiegel just uses his personal piggy bank, pays himself a shit ton.

34:40And I think it’s just like stock options that lead to dilution. And until that changes, like, there’s no reason for anybody to own this, right? No, even if they do come out with like, the sickest thing. And I know, like, I saw a couple of accounts on X that were just like, bull posting Snap into this event. I’m like, dude, like, first off, you need to fix the form factor. And I think meta just came out and just was like, yeah, dude, Snap is like DOA. Like, if I’m like, oh, I can wait like six months, and I can get this Snap thing, because like the Facebook glasses, I think they’re coming out at like 1300 bucks. Like, I’m, I’m not cheap.

35:16I’m a day one buyer of that. Like, I will buy that on day one. I’ll buy that. I find that I’m more excited about that than I am about the little muse in my pocket, right? Because I’m just like, ah, like I can talk to AI on my phone. I don’t necessarily need like, a whole nother device to interact with my AI. But to submit to metas credit, like this has been a long time in the making, right? And I think, whereas, like you said, I think Elon has been focused more on, let’s say like the industrial use cases long term, met has been really focused on the consumer retail. And it seems so far to be playing dividends in the sense that, you know, meta came out with news, what, a week and a half ago, right at this point. And I think it’s like, I think I saw yesterday, he’s like number one on the charts, right, like in terms of like downloads. And people are like, oh, it just it just works. Actually, I was on the phone with a buddy of mine this morning before we got on, where he was like complaining about like how he wanted to use AI for something. I’m like, dude, just download meta, just download Muse, and give it a shot. I’m like, it’s supposed to be like, the most AI like the most consumer friendly non tech, he’s like not

36:31a tech guy. I’m like, I it’s not for me, because I kind of want sovereignty over my data and be able to like plug models in. But like, he doesn’t, he doesn’t care. So it’s just like, he just wants something that’s like, oh, I want to do this. I want it to do it. I’m like, try, try Muse. I I’ve heard multiple people say really good things about it. And I just think, you know, obviously, because of what meta has done, they’re just a consumer facing brand. And so because of that, I think they’re in a good spot, right? The chart clearly shows that, you know, it’s odd, it’s not at all time highs, but it’s probably I think it’s like 52 week highs, right? It’s pushing it. And it’s like almost the exact opposite of what the Snapchat looks like, the Snapchat looks like, right? Yeah. Wow. I mean, literally, up until like up until a couple weeks ago, right? A couple months ago, people were just really concerned about is there an ROI on that capex? I think meta is kind of starting to show you that there is some sort of ROI on that capex.

37:33And because of that, to your point, like meta probably re rates, right? And it is in the process of re rating is well, unfortunately, well into the way of re rating. Yeah.

37:44Can it go much higher? Of course, it can. I think you have to also step back and understand we have a very, very intense political season ahead of us. We know Facebook is going to operate, you know, they’re a cash machine during political season. This will be our first election with widespread AI. And it will be very interesting to see how, and I’ll step back, I think a lot of people go and they think, Oh, how are all the campaigns going to use AI?

38:17And you actually said you would keep AI completely out of your campaign if you’re running for president. I’m yeah, because I was like, well, I was like, think about all the spend that was has is done on like Facebook ads. Now think about each of these campaign campaigns, how much they’re going to spend on AI. And they’re going to just be like, hey, every single, you know, campaign manager, every single one of our intern, everybody’s running AI, we have like set things and like, they’re just churning out, you know, statements or advertising or tweets or polling or whatever it is, like they’re just there, it’s a fire hose of output.

39:00That’s a lot of spend. But I’m also thinking about in in the world where you have an election happening, what, how does that change the consumer behavior of, okay, I’m Joe from Kansas, I’m not sure who to vote for. I go to muse, and I’m like, Hey, muse, like I’m, you know, this was said, is this true? And what like, is that going to have a huge dynamic? Are you going to see in the world of voting where people are curious about certain topics, they hyper use AI, and that leads us into another agentic area? And does it, I don’t know, I just think we’re going to see an explosion of use and explosion evaluation of AI during a political season. I think that’s the catalyst that people might be I think that’s valid. I hadn’t I hadn’t thought about that. I don’t know if I said that people wouldn’t use AI, because I’m pretty sure it’s just like so cheap to, to put content. I think your pushback was on the risk of having it in a campaign of well, I think like, let’s say the face, right? So the candidate that’s running definitely won’t use it.

40:09But they’ll probably be paying operatives to like, just like, yes, run whatever stuff they want. But like, I think, to your point, the added point of I’m going to be using AI to verify if what I’m seeing is real or not, I think that’s, I think it’s pretty valid. And if that’s the case, then probably metas q4 numbers, q3 numbers and q4. Because it starts October 1 q4 numbers are going to be like, blowouts, right? Because I like I think pretty much for usually like all election seasons, because so much money gets spent on targeting, right? Like geo specific targeting on like Facebook ads, I’ve met I’ve met a couple people that have been in that, in that world, and they tell me how like just so much spent like, I won’t be targeted because I’m not in a like swing state county. But if you’re like a swing state county, the amount of money that gets spent on a on a voter in there is like you just get a non dated with that because they know that like my vote doesn’t matter because I’m not there. But like, in that county, if you’re like in that demo, that could be a swings, a swing voter, like it’s all you’re going to see probably for the next six weeks, right? So this is so much targeted spend. Yeah, interesting. It’s going to be it’s

41:46going to be very interesting. I’m sure the gray areas that we’re not thinking about right now don’t like to care about that. But remember, it’s going to be, it’s going to be the gray areas that that are related to the divided groups. And then obviously, I think that there’s a lot of I feel like I still trust Elon more than anybody just because I think Elon only wants to get to Mars.

42:23Like that’s it. He’s just like, I need to do everything I can in order to get to Mars, like in his lifetime. Right? Like that’s what he wants to do. Right? I feel like the other AI lab founder CEOs are like, I want more power. Right? And like, you never want to give the person, like if history is taught as anything, if movies is taught as anything is like, you never want to give power to the person that wants power. You want to give power to the person that doesn’t want it. Right? Like, that’s like literally a tale is old this time. Right? The person that doesn’t want it is the person that deserves it. And so for that reason, you know, I still, I still would be like, yeah, I believe like what Elon is working towards. I feel like, not necessarily that he has my best interests at heart. I think he just is like, I know, he’s like, I know this is what I need in order to achieve my goals. And I’m not playing this to run the world. He’s like, I just I want to get to Mars. Right? Like, I like I think that I’d rather trust that than like, zuck who flip flops, Dario, who thinks we’re all too stupid to decide the fate of humanity or the fate of like what we should do. And Sam is also like another guy

43:34that’s like, they’re just all really unlikable. They’re really untrustworthy, really unlikable.

43:38Straight out of like every villain movie of every AI take over the world apocalypse disaster. Right?

43:47I think the one thing that we can agree on here completely, though, is in as we start to see this like power grab as we start to see this election, all the powers shift, AI is going to probably come out on top. But the one the one like black swan in there is who is put in office? How is AI treated after a shift of power? Because we have stable ground underneath us right now, right? Like, we understand our environment that we’re playing in, we wake up every morning, we know who we have an office. It’s a very different environment if we have a huge shift in how these things are treated. If the political environment makes a 180 on us, that that could unwind all the the spend into AI that we see. So I do think to me, like, I think the biggest tail risk and I brought it up a couple weeks ago, is that you see the populace left and the populace right, starting to align in that they both sides don’t like AI. Like, I think Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon were at the same event, like anti AI event. And these guys were polar opposites, you know, going into Trump’s first election. I don’t keep up that closely with Steve Bannon’s politics. But like, you know, he’s more on the right side of things, right? Like he’s more on the right wing side of

45:11things. And the fact that him and Bernie Sanders are 100% aligned on AI is, I think should be concerning in terms of like the rise of, you know, populism, you know, or the shifting of what populism means in America. Yeah, no, I totally agree. Look, I want to pull things back into the world of crypto right now. Obviously, AI is super exciting, and it’s not going anywhere. Love your analysis on the trade setups here. Please tweet and keep us updated on your calls and your purse position as you play the earnings for micro strategy here, or Micron, excuse me.

45:51Do you want to note, look, we’ve had Hyperliquid, if you want to pull that up on the chart, flirting with $100. We’ve had Pumpfun, flirting at its current price point, everything getting pulled back. We even had Solana up at about the $20 or $120 point, things have pulled back.

46:15My take here is look, same thing that’s affecting the rest of the equities market, bonds are not good for anybody. We still have the headwind of the SEC not doing what we need them to do, or Congress not doing what we need them to do. Dare I say, into weakness here, I think we’re seeing the market showing its hand of, okay, we know that best one’s going to have to do something. We’re probably going to see things move higher in the midterm here. I’m a buyer into some of this weakness. I think a lot of people are getting spooked out here. I’m not overly concerned by a day of red numbers. And I do think that, I think we have a directionality that’s starting to break out across this asset class.

47:13So I tend to agree with you. I think this is interesting to bid this and maybe give it to the low of the day, the low today and maybe put on a trade there. Interestingly enough, I traded near a little bit small position, just because it’s been strong and it’s still strong.

47:33This compared to Bitcoin is just so much stronger. My biggest caution is this, the gold chart.

47:39The fact that gold is at the lows of the day makes me be like, what’s going on here? Why is there this disconnect? It’s the one asset not conforming to this thesis I’m presenting here of things are going to be going higher. I don’t know why that would be, but you could also make the argument that gold is just being a laggard. But on this move, gold led. And gold, I feel like generally in liquidity events, gold leads. I remember in 2008, gold was, in 2009, when we bottomed after Lehman, gold ran really hard. And so I just think that around liquidity, gold is a little bit of a canary in the coal mine. Now granted, I feel like over the last couple of years, maybe sometimes crypto has been a little bit more of the canary in the coal mine of liquidity moves. But I think to me, it’s just something to watch for. I wouldn’t be totally like, buy Bitcoin into every pullback until I start seeing gold get stronger. If gold gets above like 4400, then it’s like, okay, now I do think now granted, the gold chart over the last two years is very different than the Bitcoin chart. So gold had this huge run, while Bitcoin had this huge sell off. They’re almost diametrically opposed into what they look like. So yeah, so I just think that you just need to be cautious in that sense, but I’d rather

49:16bid than not bid on Bitcoin. Because it’s also, it’s like, if again, I think to me, what happened in August was the fact that Besant made these moves that you generally see on a massive pullback like that, he made these moves like here. You know what I mean? Like here, like this is where the move was made. Like the S&P is like flirting with all time highs, not like, oh my God, we had a 20% pullback and I need to stick save the market. That’s where you usually see those acts of like strong arming. It’s happening here so close to the highest. So that means like they don’t want the pain trade, right? And so if they don’t want the pain trade, that means like any pullback, like 3% pullback, 5% pullback, they’re going to go in there. And if that’s the case, then like you kind of like people are going to be bidding these liquidity beneficiaries faster rather than like slower and like letting things play out. So hosting.

50:23We will see. Like I will say the names I’m focused on right now are lighter lit, Hyperliquid, Pump, the theme here, probably revenue producing protocols. I do believe that you’re probably also going to see Ethereum here. It seems to be looking to kind of just pop a bit more than Bitcoin. I’m keeping my eyes very close on this chart. And I would say over the two, I’m bidding Ethereum a little bit more than Bitcoin. And then additionally, outside of that, haven’t touched the meme coin space. I’m still holding Quotron, which has been an ugly chart, unfortunately. A very ugly chart. I’m pulling back from like $22 million market cap this morning sitting. I don’t even want to look. What are we sitting at this morning? Oh, my god.

51:24Only down to $5.2 million. I don’t know. Sorry.

51:31I think in general, like on chain has been pretty weak with like people are just seeing the majors be strong and they’re like bidding on that. But again, I just think like with these meme coins or meme points, these on chain things, like the reflexivity is so high that when they start to go, they’re going to go. So I don’t know. I just think like it’s the position you hold it. If you want to sell it, if you need liquidity, get out. But I just I’m still to me, like nothing’s changed on it. So I’m still there and strong. Like I think price movements don’t necessarily matter to me on stuff like that because you’re not paying for like 50%. You’re paying for multiple Xs on of return. Well, multiple Xs right now would get me back to previous all-time high Portval. So I’m okay with that. I also want to highlight that even FWA, we saw FWA rip off of lows. FWA was sitting down. We pull up loot here. You can pull some numbers. FWA at a low point on the 7th or 6th of October or September, Jesus, down around $8 million market cap. And then us seeing this run all the way up over the last few days up until the mid $20 million market caps, pulling back this morning to $15 million market cap. So leading off about $10

53:03million in value. Everybody keeps declaring this dead. And then it seems to find a second, third, fourth, fifth life in it. So it’s not like, I think like what they’ve been doing has been pretty genius. I think the reason why spins when they launched V2, then basically they launched and this came out before they launched V2 and we saw an increase in spins because of it. They would buy a crypto punk from Punk strategy, which is a previous project that the founder of FWA worked on where it was basically like micro strategy for crypto punks and then did it for a bunch of NFT collections. And so what they’ll do is they’ll take some of the fees by a crypto punk, back it with like half the amount of ETH of that crypto punk. So your odds of pulling it are higher. And then every 12 hours, I think drop the backing by one ETH.

54:00Right. And so then as the backing drops, that means your chances of winning it become higher.

54:06And so because a crypto punk is worth, I think at this point, $90,000 at one ETH, it’s backed by 2,500. So your odds are like so high in terms of like expected EV that it’s been leading to like spikes in spins because you can spend a hundred, 200 bucks and win a hundred thousand dollars. And so the second one, I think was one last night. I think like two ETH backing around there. And I think there’s like three more in the pool. And so like basically he’s creating this flywheel effect that not only is creating more spins for FWA, which to me was always like the number one thing, the issue of why I was like, I have been and still will pound the table on like, if you can break this thing outside of the crypto little bubble and go to gen pop, this thing I think can do like crazy numbers. But outside of doing that, he’s found a way to increase spins just by giving people this high quality asset that they want and make the odds really low. And then it’s also kind of, it’s also created a rival in a punk strategy token, which was like sitting at the lows. And I, interestingly enough, I bought punk strategy token. I, first off, I paid like the top, like a year plus ago, because like I fomowed in at the

55:24top. I was very annoyed because it was like down only since then. But then once, once this thing launched, I’m like, I could see how there could be value accrual to this long term. And so I thought it would happen faster. But now it’s like starting to run. I think it’s like up to the 3x off the lows. But right now, yeah, to two and a half x off the lows right now. Yeah. So like, but like the flywheel FWA is feeding the flywheel of punk strategy because it’s buying those tokens buying those crypto punks, putting it in, then by using those fees to buy more of those crypto punks. And that’s, I think also punk strategy bought like its first crypto punk in a while, which is great. And like the crypto punk market has been like getting reignited.

56:09I think it’s very cool and very interesting to see both these flywheels kind of feeding off each other. And credit to Adam, you know, who we had on the show about a month ago now, I think, and you know, he’s just been crushing, he’s just been shipping crushing. And like, you know, I’ve seen a couple people like a pine on things that he should do. And I’m like, that is like, one of the first things that, it’s been, that’s like four years. But like I don’t think that’s what it’s been worth. And I think it’s been pretty good. I just can’t tell you that, but he’s, he’s just, he’s currently being priced for a month and a half. And like, I mean, he’s goods, he’s still, he’s, he’s a, he’s still, he’s a big big big big guy. He’s a big big guy.

57:13I think the play, the way to make money here, wait till the backing gets down to single digit ETH. You know the spins are going to increase and you would just be looking to buy into FWA token around there and you can ride this for a 2, 3X every time this happens.

57:30I don’t think you’d be able to ride it for a 2, 3X, but like...

57:32I mean, that’s what you would have been able to do if you’d done this for the last punk that was won last night.

57:38The increase in spins is the punk backing got low, odds went up.

57:43All of the big EVM guys started spinning.

57:46It didn’t 2, 3X in the last 48 hours.

57:49Am I looking at the wrong thing?

57:52No, over the last week or so.

57:56Yeah, well there was one that spun.

57:59There was one that got picked that got won last week and then there’s another one that got won last night. So I don’t think that’s a strategy.

58:07Okay, over the last five days though.

58:10But look, I think you could say you know...

58:14I think it has more to do with the fact that when he launched V2, it led to increase in spins because people can do like their own private pools.

58:23Just like in general, it was like a big protocol upgrade.

58:27So I don’t know if you can isolate just like the crypto punk being in there leading to the price action going up. Fair enough.

58:37I’m going to keep an eye on this. I will try to take this trade and I’ll let you know how that goes.

58:44But again, on the radar, I’m watching it.

58:48Pons haven’t been looking at kind of off my radar at this point.

58:53We still see the Robinhood ecosystem be the hot one.

59:00Anything that is stock related, hot right now.

59:04I’m still watching Uniswap.

59:06I think Uni has continued to be a fascinating trade as they continue to gain more and more use and notably Uniswap getting back to a local all time high in recent days.

59:23And I say all time high in air quotes because obviously it’s not truly an all time high.

59:31But up to $9 just back in August, middle of August, we were down to $3.

59:38So a 3x and Uni led completely by Robinhood Chain and their adoption and V4 hooks becoming one of the biggest metas in the space.

59:50I think we’re going to continue to see this play out.

59:53I think you’re going to see more EVM chains getting more notoriety.

59:57And Ink Chain, something that we’ve both had our eyes on, especially with us owning Quotrons.

1:00:04I believe we’re going to see other, there’s been rumblings of other L1s and L2s and L3s launching for some big companies, mainly stablecoin related.

1:00:18All of those are going to settle on Uniswap.

1:00:20I think you’re going to see a lot of hooks being built in to all these things.

1:00:25And so, again, my same call that I made back in August, Uniswap is part of the pipes and infrastructure, the pipes and sewers that are going to make the crypto ecosystem go round. So additionally watching that, especially if they get some guidance here on what they can and can’t do on buybacks as well as their token.

1:00:48Look, I’m excited.

1:00:50As you can tell, anything that is making money, want to own it right now.

1:00:54I think that is the safest asset in crypto to own.

1:00:58Am I missing anything else that makes money right now?

1:01:02That should be on my radar. I know when Syrup is one.

1:01:06I think Nier has been pretty strong lately.

1:01:12Right. And so I think that’s they’ve been crushing it.

1:01:17And I think they have like some sort of, you know, they’re at the intersection, I guess, of privacy, AI and revenue.

1:01:24And apologies for the sound.

1:01:27I have no idea how to turn it off.

1:01:28The but yeah, I think that like, yeah, the near near is probably one of those.

1:01:35It’s been very strong on the chart. So I look to trade around that.

1:01:39Like, I think on the trading side, I think that Uniswap is interesting near is interesting and ETH as well, like where you can kind of trade them, lever it on perps and trade that way if you want to trade them.

1:01:52Yeah, totally agree.

1:01:55But yeah, overall, we had a great show.

1:01:59And I think we’ll probably have if the last few weekends have been any indication of things to watch out for.

1:02:10I’m sure X is going to lose their shit over something and probably going to be something AI related and we’ll see.

1:02:16And we’ll be back on Tuesday.

1:02:18We’ve continued to see the play be sitting your hands till Sunday, bid Sunday, reap the rewards Monday.

1:02:28I feel like this is with the weakness we see today, probably tomorrow, a little bit of a bounce, but I feel like we see some bleeding continue until probably next week.

1:02:40And I probably would take that stance.

1:02:43Well, I think it just everything is just really comes down to what are rates doing.

1:02:49And if rates aren’t backing off, then that will hit all risk assets.

1:02:57So it truly will.

1:02:59Again, risk assets want lower rates.

1:03:04But I feel like most of our viewers understand that at this point.

1:03:06Hopefully, hopefully you do.

1:03:09Everybody, thank you for tuning in. What a fantastic show.

1:03:12We’ll be back next Tuesday.

1:03:15Watching some football over the weekend.

1:03:17Virginia Tech going for four. Oh, dude.

1:03:21What one other thing, my my fantasy football team run by Grokbot is 2-0.

1:03:26I’m also 2-0. I think I think you showed you shared.

1:03:30You changed your team name, I think, to troll everybody.

1:03:32I think I might change my team name to also troll everybody, because I haven’t gotten any comments, but like I’m waiting for people like this is unfair or blah, blah, blah.

1:03:40I still have no idea who anyone on my team is besides Lamar Jackson.

1:03:45And like I was with my buddy last night and he was like, oh, who’s on your team?

1:03:49Like, I have no idea. I was like, I literally had because he’s like, yeah, I’ve been chatting with AI to like make the picks. I’m like, I literally just told it manage my team.

1:03:57So we’ll see how it does.

1:03:59So the the less of a troll, but I have stopped using Fable completely, all completely. And now we’re Opus 5.5 max.

1:04:08Because I think I’m getting 95% of the quality for maybe 40% off the token cost.

1:04:16And it is faster.

1:04:19It is a little bit more.

1:04:22It doesn’t plan quite as much, but I feel like I’m able to put my thumb on the scale and be like, look, you need to sit back and plan this out completely, back test it, and then you can start building things out.

1:04:34I think if you come at it after using Fable and understand and watch like actual Fable’s thought process and execution process, you can push Opus 5.5 in the direction you want. So I renamed my team from Fable 5.5 max effort to Opus or Fable 5.1 to Opus 5.5 max effort.

1:04:57We are 2 and 0. We are projected to finish the season in second place right now.

1:05:02And it now has access to, there’s a group chat for the team.

1:05:09It was reading the group chat last night and asked me for some context on one of the people about who he was and how he acted.

1:05:18I told them that he is a little bit of a loose cannon and it submitted a trade.

1:05:24And it had a whole text conversation with him this morning that I was not even aware of.

1:05:29And I believe this trade is going to go through.

1:05:32It basically convinced him that it’s good for both of us and he doesn’t need this quarterback. And yeah, again, I’ve done nothing.

1:05:41I’m just letting this happen. But I am the pariah in the league at this point.

1:05:48Nobody wants to work with me.

1:05:50And I let AI know that.

1:05:51I was like, hey, it’s known that you’re running the team.

1:05:55You need to come into every situation, every trade understanding this.

1:05:59And it basically trained on my voice so that every message it sends now is it sounds like it’s me and it puts in grammatical errors, everything.

1:06:11And if it needs context, it will ask me about somebody so that it’s like, oh wait, this is Hunter actually sending me something and not Claude.

1:06:20Mind boggling.

1:06:22All right. I love it. I love it.

1:06:25Great to see you.

1:06:27Again, great show.

1:06:29Appreciate everybody tuning in.

1:06:31Looks like we’re going to continue to see things trend a little lower here, hype gain a little bit of strength into the end of the show.

1:06:38Let us know if you have any questions, any topics you want us to cover.

1:06:41We’ll be back 10 30 a.m.

1:06:43Next Tuesday. G. One thing before we bounce, find us on all your favorite messaging platforms or sorry, streaming platforms, YouTube, Spotify, Apple podcast, X, like subscribe.

1:07:00I’ve been starting to mess around with AI agents to kind of like cut stuff up and clip them and post them and stuff like that. So we’re just messing around with that.

1:07:11So it’ll be a fun experiment. Maybe we can talk about that next week. Of course. Let’s jump into it. Thanks everybody. We’ll catch you on the next one. Cheers.