AI Slowdown, Fed Rate Decision & Clarity Act | Market & Trading Updates

0:54What is up, everybody? Welcome back to another episode of Full Port. We have a lot to go over today.

1:00A lot of drama throughout the industry, throughout the financial sector, as we see AI being urgently slowed down by the very CEOs running these labs, as well as drama around the Clarity Act.

1:17We have a lot going on with new launches. We have collections that are getting bought into that we didn’t see as many holders.

1:27And we also have the opportunity of buying, I think, some great names and discounts if you’re playing for the long term.

1:37G, how are you doing? How was your weekend? Welcome back and happy Tuesday.

1:41I’m good, yeah. Welcome back. It was a very eventful weekend. I was, I spent like, so Saturday I was a little disconnected from the phone throughout most of the day.

1:54And then in the evening, I came back and checked X and I was like, what the F just happened?

2:02And so, yeah, I think it’s been, I think that’s number one topic that we should start off with is, you know, the AI slowed down, right?

2:11So last week, let’s go over the order of events. Last week, we talked about the whistleblower that came out on Anthropic.

2:21And we were, you know, we were like, oh, he’s an industry plant. And I think even, even as time has gone by, it does seem more and more likely that this was like an industry plant type of situation and he’s an op.

2:36And so I still stick by that. But then Saturday morning, you know, instead of, you know, I think anybody, I had listened, I think I had just listened to the all in pod where they were also discussing the industry plant and everything that happened there.

2:52And then right after I listened to that, Dario comes out and on all in, they were basically saying how, you know, basically like the CEO, like the weird thing about this whole thing is that.

3:03The CEO is agreeing. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, like usually a, a whistleblower is telling you stuff that the company doesn’t want you to know.

3:13But the weird thing about all of this is like, he was weirdly in agreement, right?

3:18Like his boss at Anthropic, like retweeted it and was like, yes, I actually think it’s greater than 10%. Right.

3:25And so then on Saturday, you would think that Dario would come out and try to assuage fears.

3:31And then he comes out with this, you know, massive thing on like, you know, we need to regulate us and we need a third party.

3:38That is, again, like, again, like, it feels so like sciopey.

3:44It feels so much.

3:47It kind of feels like COVID all over again, where they’re telling us, this is what’s going to happen.

3:52You have to trust us, trust us, blah, blah, blah.

3:54And then like, I think the people or the committee, the independent committee that Anthropic wants to regulate them, it like owns like $8 billion worth of Anthropic stock.

4:05So they’re not really that independent.

4:07So it’s just like, it’s just very weird.

4:10Right. And so then that comes out and then Sam Altman comes out and agrees with him.

4:15And then, and this to me was the most surprising of everything was Elon comes out and agrees with him.

4:20Right. And this was like Saturday.

4:25Elon agreeing was where I was like, okay, like some of, some of the theories and like conspiracies around this.

4:31I completely was like, I don’t know about it, but when he came out, um, it felt like he was just kind of playing into it almost as if like, all right, I’m going to call like the BS on you guys.

4:45Cause I feel like you’re doing this for the wrong reasons.

4:47I’m going to come out and do it because I think it, like it felt more genuine from him.

4:52I don’t know why do I explain it.

4:54Um, but I have my doubts about the whole thing until Elon came out.

4:58I just don’t trust the guys.

5:00Yeah, no, I mean, listen, I don’t, I don’t know.

5:01I definitely don’t trust the other guys. And for me, the, the real wrench in everything was the fact that Elon came out and agreed with them.

5:08But then you also have guys like, I think Satya from Microsoft was kind of like, no slow down.

5:15Zuck was like, no slow down.

5:17And then like, no slow down.

5:18Jensen was definitely no slow down.

5:20And then, um, then like, also I saw there are rumors that Google may have hit RSI last week.

5:28Right. And so, so, so remember how I was like, oh, Google will be like a competing lab.

5:33And we were all kind of joking, uh, like, no, like they’re completely out of the running.

5:38Like they’re not, like, it was almost like funny.

5:42Like, no, they’re just out. Like they’re way behind. They’re like, so what do they do? Did they just come out of nowhere? Or like, well, like the weird thing is, right.

5:51Like they had so many people that have left, uh, Google, Google, deep mind and their AI division leaving for anthropic and open AI that I feel like everybody was like, oh, games over Google, not even in contention.

6:06And then all of a sudden, I think, you know, I guess it happened in the middle of the week last week, but then it really started picking up steam on Saturday where there were just like a lot of hints online where, you know, people, oh, so for those who don’t know, RSI is recursive self-improvement.

6:20So that’s basically like the beginnings of AGI and ASI where like just the, the models improve so much upon themselves that it just like, it’s so rapid that they start pulling away with it. And so, yeah, like I spent all of Saturday trying to digest this and obviously everybody on Twitter is like, this is terrible for the AI trade.

6:44And I was like, all right, cool.

6:46I, I expect weakness on Monday.

6:48And then I was kind of like, well, let’s let, let’s play devil’s advocate here.

6:55Right. And so one was the other interesting thing was starting in the middle of last week, there was a big options buyer of all AI names in the market.

7:07And it turns out that that was Leopold putting positions back on and buying options on like the AI trade that he currently had on.

7:16And he was, he had to have been kind of aggressive about it because people were noticing it.

7:23You know, he could have, he could have been less aggressive about it and probably not.

7:27And he made a conscious decision to be aggressive of it, which I think you have to take as a signal here. So let’s take a step back, right?

7:36His wife is the, what is, what is she?

7:40The COO or no, I’m blowing, I’m blowing a blank of, of what her actual position is, but she is like very well connected within the anthropic organization.

7:53And I feel like part of what Leopold’s edge is, is that he knows exactly what’s going on. Right. And he’s a really smart guy. And so I think he probably knew this news was coming because there’s no way Dario wrote this like Friday night after the close and decided he was going to post it Saturday morning.

8:16And so he was like, oh, I think this is going to be really positive.

8:19And so he was very aggressive last week and trying to buy options.

8:23Right. And so then I’m like, okay, well, why would he think it’d be very positive?

8:27And so if you think what, like, and again, he’s a, he’s a really smart guy.

8:32He’s smarter than me for sure. The guy graduated from Columbia at 18 years old.

8:37You know, like the blow up, let’s, let’s put the blow up aside for a minute.

8:40I think that’s just like, no, just, you know, just no experience in terms of public markets.

8:47And maybe this is also a, a signal of, of that inexperience as well, where he gets this information and he’s like, I have to put this position on aggressively before the weekend, because I think this is market moving news that’s going to happen next week.

9:03So then it’s like, okay, so then why would he think that?

9:06And so then if you think about these model, these frontier labs, if they’re sitting there and they’re like, well, we’re going to slow down on the frontier and we’re going to cut spending on the new frontier models, that means they’re probably going to use that compute to serve inference to people like you and me, which is a good margin business, right?

9:27Like I think it came out over the weekend or it came out yesterday that Anthropics margins on, on inference is 80, over 80%, right?

9:37So now if let’s say half their chips, I don’t know the exact thing, but let’s say it was half the chips was used to serve customers and half of it was used to train.

9:46Now all like, let’s say, uh, I think people were saying like 20% of it is used to, um, throttle and like, you know, gut check the models.

9:56And then that’s like an extra 20 to 30% you have.

10:00That they can now serve and make money on into an IPO, which is, I think, what investors would want to see.

10:07So it’s like, okay, I could see how maybe he was like, oh, this is max bullish. I should be putting these positions on before.

10:13And so then, like, maybe the inexperience comes in where it’s like, oh, well, you know, people are like, oh, this is a slowdown in the CapEx trade.

10:21A lot of things are going to slow down. So these valuations need to slow down. And then these things start to implode, right?

10:28So that’s like, kind of, and I’m going to throw one more, like, thing, macro thing that I wasn’t really, I wasn’t thinking about, but I saw a couple of people talk about it, was, apparently, you know, the, there may have been some leaning from Besson and the Trump administration to lower the pace of CapEx. And I don’t know how much I believe this, but like, again, this is like macro and I could see this maybe making sense, but I don’t know this kind of like above my pay grade, but it’s worth like thinking about was that because government bond yields have started going up, it means that they don’t have enough buyers, right?

11:16You know, prices have gone down, which means yields have gone up. They are trying to secure buyers. The problem is the types of people that would buy U.S. government debt are also generally the types of people that will buy Google, Meta, Amazon.

11:31Like these are all like triple A companies as good, if not maybe better than government bonds. And the fact that they have like real cash flows from businesses that generate so much cash that these things are as good, as good as gold.

11:45And so there may have been some leanings from Besset being like, Hey, look, we need to get rates down lower. And we need these buyers to come by U.S. treasuries instead of your, your long-term bonds. And I, I, again, I don’t know.

12:04Yeah, this one, I don’t know. I don’t know if I, I could buy into that one fully.

12:08But like, I, I wouldn’t rule it out. And I just think that again, in the world of trading, like you just have to, you have to take every scenario into account. So again, I was just throwing that out because I read that and I’m like, all right, that’s interesting. I hadn’t thought about that.

12:22That’s something I’m going to keep my eye on. But like, that was pretty much what happened on Saturday.

12:26And so, you know, I think everybody, the, the gut reaction was, Oh, this is gonna be negative for the AI trade. And, you know, every, like, I think pretty much all the AI, the, the entire AI CapEx trade gapped down between three and 15%. It closed, it closed off the lows. It basically opened at the lows and it rallied.

12:50Um, if I was trading, I would have been like, I did think about, like, should I just buy this? But I’m like, I just have so much other work to do. I’m like, I can’t sit there monitoring a position in case it doesn’t bounce right off the open. So, um, but I was, I was looking at it and I was, I didn’t do anything.

13:07I considered at one point, like over the weekend, I was like, all right, do I just cut exposure? Cause it’s like, is the trade, is the CapEx trade over? And if it’s a CapEx, if the CapEx, if the AI CapEx trade is over, then you have to cut the risk down.

13:20So I, I did consider cutting some of it down. I ultimately decided I’m going to hold onto it for now. Um, yesterday it bounced today. It looks like we’re, you know, we, we retested the highs on a couple of these things.

13:34It looks like, and, um, we’re not at lows, but like, we’re not, we’re not incredibly strong. So like I’m bringing up, uh, I don’t know if you could share my chart, uh, my charts real quick. I’ll just share a couple, a couple, um, stocks really quick.

13:49So Micron, um, here, it’s kind of like hanging out a little bit above yesterday’s high. It broke below that downtrend, but you know, we can, the cool thing about trend lines is you can just adjust them to whatever fits your narrative.

14:03Uh, NBIS again, it’s hanging out below yesterday’s low below yesterday’s high. Um, kind of like in, I’m personally kind of like in a wait and see, um, here, like, you know, same thing with here, you know, all, all these things.

14:21So we’ll, we’ll see. I think like, so my, my, here’s my take on, on stuff and this could be way off base, but I immediately went and thought this affects anybody whose business is likely on next generation compute.

14:42And I feel like if we’re going to see a slowdown, this will affect, uh, chip makers far more than it will memory. I think if we, even if we don’t see frontier labs pushing like the newest model and going for, you know, bigger context, et cetera, we’re still going to see, uh, the, like us, the consumer side and the, and the enterprise side still being like, Hey, I still need this.

15:07I still need the technology. You guys might want to slow down on where your training, uh, compute goes, but we still will see the memory trade.

15:18Um, and even the metal trade that supplies that be very, very strongly push. Um, especially as I know IPO is going to happen at some point here, uh, even though they were like, Oh, we might delay it.

15:31But I do think this really only affects NVIDIA in my eyes at, at a larger scale. Um, now you could see some people saying like, Hey, we just want, we want the, all the compute we can get right now.

15:44But, um, so, okay, wait, I want to like pause you there for a second. Cause one thing that we did leave out was that I think on Saturday afternoon or Sunday morning, Trump also tweeted.

15:57There is no slow down. Like we’re not Trump, Trump called Jensen at, uh, while Jensen was on the all in podcast on stage and basically said, whoever’s pushing this narrative, which I don’t get this part.

16:12He was like, whoever’s pushing this slow down narrative and that we need to stop. He’s like, I don’t know who they’re aligned with.

16:18Uh, and I think it was Saturday before the Dario, uh, post, but Trump is like, I think it came out after.

16:27Yeah. Cause Trump is like, I don’t, I don’t know if this is China and I don’t know if this is politically aligned, but these are, these are, this is dumb.

16:35This is so dumb.

16:36I want to talk about that too. And so like, let’s take a step back from capital markets for a second.

16:42And take, take, take the, the chart off the screen. Cause we’re about to go in a little bit of conspiracy corner here.

16:48Um, if you take a look at the, uh, so first off I was listening to, um, I want to listen to the Jensen.

16:56Uh, it’s already up on like the pod. So I’m on, I’m going to listen to that probably like right after the show, but I was listening to, uh, Gwen, Gwyneth, uh, from SpaceX.

17:06Um, who’s like the, I guess Elon’s right-hand woman at SpaceX. And then Elon called in and they, you know, she was basically saying on stage yesterday at the all in summit that they’re like, they are so compute constrained.

17:19And this is what we keep hearing from everybody else. Like, like, even if there was a slowdown, there’s still so much demand that outpaces supply.

17:27She’s talking about, you know, the time it takes to get a generator, uh, is three years and we need those generators today. Right.

17:34And so that’s like to get a generator to install in a data center that you then need to turn on for compute. Right. So it’s like three years. So like, you’re talking about that, that, um, those chips wouldn’t go online for at least maybe what, three and a half years from today.

17:52And there’s a shit ton of demand for them today. So that, that I thought was interesting. Um, again, I think we’re just going to keep on hearing that even on Saturday after Dario put up that essay.

18:05I think I read something like Anthropic secured, like $500 billion worth of compute, like chips or something. Um, like, like over the course of the week. So like, here they are crying that the sky is falling yet at the same time, massively investing in it. Right. And so then it’s like, okay, so then what do these guys want?

18:25I think we’ve all, again, and again, I think like, this was a really interesting exercise for me. Like, I just thought it was very fun. Like, I’m like, I don’t know what this means for capital markets and how things are going to react in the immediate term, but still just trying to game theory it out.

18:41And so, uh, you look and I saw Kamala Harris and Barack Obama, obviously Bernie Sanders came out right away, but pretty much all the den operatives were like, this is, and I think, um, yesterday, right. Being like, yeah, AI is the devil. We need to stop this. So then, okay. Take a look at everything that’s happened over the course of the past week.

19:04You get the whistle, the whistleblower, uh, you get every, um, every AI CEO saying the same thing. And then you have everybody in the democratic party. All these guys are all saying the same thing less than two months before the midterms.

19:20This is a, like, this is like, this reminds me so much of like anything that became a political, uh, issue over the last five years that it just popped up out of nowhere. And then the media just ran with it for eight to 10 weeks to spread whatever it is that they wanted. We already know that data centers are there. I think, I think I’ve heard they’re, they’re pulling worse than like Epstein, then war that like, it’s literally like the worst polling thing.

19:49Like if you’re pro data center as a politician, you’re DOA. Right. And so now you have this thing happening right before midterms, you know, we’re all going to be.

19:59Inundated with ads, I think, no matter where you are. And so I just think, like, this is all a death touch now of, like, it clearly, we need, the technology is a matter of national security.

20:13And I want to, like, whether you like AI or don’t, it is technology that has military and defense implications. It just does.

20:24And so I would assume a lot of the Republican class who kind of has kept making this comparison of, like, data centers are modern oil, that are the modern, you know, if you want to get into something that’s always going to be needed and becomes a new commodity, it’s data.

20:40And it’s compute. And obviously, energy is a big part of that.

20:45But now they’re, if you think about it, you could weaponize that and make it so that the public sees that as a bad thing, sell them on this idea of already, like, AI uses all this water, uses all this energy, it’s bad for the environment.

21:00And now you have people that are going to a party that has really backed the technology, could have the weaker hand as they align themselves next to it.

21:11The general public is like, oh, wait, this is very bad.

21:13I mean, you’ve already seen, I think, in some of these regional races where Republicans that were pro data center are now anti data center because they would lose the election.

21:26I think, like, in Ohio, I think in some of these, like, more purple states where that’s already happening, right?

21:32And so, yeah, that, it’s just so interesting.

21:35And so then, like, to take that one step further and, you know, it’s like not necessarily what are the implications today, but then what are the implications?

21:43It feels almost like regulatory capture is coming whether we want it or not because think about, let’s say Anthropoc goes public in the next 60 days.

22:00You’re going to have a lot, like, right now, like, there’s a lot of people that are rich on paper, but in 60 days, they’re going to be liquid rich.

22:08And so now you’re going to have people with massive, massive, massive pockets, like George Soros level pockets that can then move, like, you know, like they can form whatever PACs they want.

22:24They can, you know, fund any NGOs they want that pushes their narrative because they’re going to have a ton of liquid capital, right?

22:32And I think what a lot of the AI people, I think, understand, and rightfully so, is that what is probably more important to them than money is power and influence.

22:45And knowing that they can make, like, infinite money again because they literally created God, right?

22:53And so, like, they’d be willing to spend probably a large portion of that in order to influence things their way.

22:58So now we’re probably going to see a ton of capital going towards regulatory capture, EA-type, you know, things that maybe couldn’t be done before.

23:10Yeah, it’s just like, to me, it’s just like, wow, we might have some scary times ahead.

23:14But, yeah, in the short term.

23:17Wow, I did not go there originally, but that is an interesting play.

23:21But, like, in the short term, right, like, it’s all about politics, right?

23:24And so it’s definitely, I mean, if I’m China, I’m really happy right now.

23:31You know what I mean? Like, this is, like, the same thing that’s happened, I feel like, with social media where, dude, you go on TikTok in China and all they push is, like, science and math.

23:42Science and math and learning and education.

23:44Yeah, and you go on TikTok here and it’s brain rot.

23:48It’s brain rot. It’s literally, like, ruining our youth.

23:52And, yeah, I mean, like, this is, like, this is, like, the best way.

23:56I feel like the Russians kind of, like, developed a little bit of this playbook in, like, the 80s, 90s during the Cold War where they were, like, yeah, the best way to ruin a country, like, without attacking them is, like, ruin them from within and, like, ruin their youth and ruin, like, the next generation.

24:10And, I mean, I feel like they’ve been, I feel like our enemies have been very successful over the last 20 years.

24:17Well, it’s also, if you think about it, the best way to hinder advancement is to cause, you know, controversy or to split the, like, divide the efforts.

24:33And right now you have a nation that should be fully, like, AI and, you know, we’re pushing forward.

24:39We need this technology. And it matters. And now you have it split into two parties, essentially.

24:44And now that there’s two parties, you have half a country essentially working against the technology.

24:50And obviously there are, and don’t get me wrong, like, I’m not trying to defend, say, like, there shouldn’t be regulation.

24:56And, like, at its maximum potential, this technology is not dangerous.

25:01I think any technology could be dangerous, right?

25:03Like, there are ways to use blockchain that would be, that could be harmful, right?

25:08Like, using private money transfer.

25:12But I also, I also think that, like, when me and you sat down last October and had dinner, you based, you sold me on this, like, national security idea so strong.

25:26And that every AI company is technically backed by the U.S. government at this point, that it is really a race to the top.

25:38And China’s got to be loving this, though.

25:40They just, they have to be loving this. Yeah, I mean, I think if you want to share my screen, this post came out from David Sachs on Saturday, which I thought was probably kind of, like, the best response of, like, you guys are the frontier.

25:57So, by any reasonable metric, right?

25:59So, if you want to slow it down, slow it down.

26:02But, like, there’s no need to regulate everybody else, right?

26:05And it’s, like, if you feel like it should be slowed down, then slow down, right?

26:09It’s a free market, and, like, we’ll let the free market decide.

26:11And that’s basically what he said for the most part.

26:13You know, most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic, right?

26:19Can I throw the, like, the even, like, odder part into this?

26:23And we can hop into, obviously, other markets and conversations at some point here.

26:27But every part of this, you know, like, even this response from David right here, that’s written with AI.

26:33I mean, you can see the em dashes in there. But you know what every Anthropic is deciding to do is it is being gamed out and backtested via whatever their most powerful model is.

26:46And they’re playing a game of chess. And you know that it’s happening, the same thing’s happening at OpenAI, where they’re, like, I’m sure they’re feeding a model and being, like, hey, Dario just did this.

26:57And they just had this guy.

26:58Here are the, like, theories. How do, like, where do we move our pawn next?

27:04And Elon’s probably doing the same. And they’re all. Yeah, I mean, they’re all doing the same thing.

27:08And I quite literally, when this is all playing out, I was, like, so in my fantasy league, like I told you, it’s all automated by AI.

27:17And I love it because it’s fun. And I can still make some inputs where I’m, like, hey, my personal choice and my, you know, I have some, like, actual reasoning and my own strategy that I want to employ.

27:30And you can tell me if it’s wrong or not.

27:32But I would rather just let AI do it.

27:34I would assume every one of these companies and labs at this point are kind of doing the same thing of, like, here’s my ultimate goal.

27:40Here’s my, you know, my ethics and my thesis.

27:43I’m, like, where I’m okay going and where I don’t ever want to go, what I’m scared of and what I want.

27:49Tell me what the best decisions to make make it happen.

27:52It’s, like, it’s, like, a genie, essentially.

27:55And they’re all just playing chess of models.

27:57That’s all this is. Yeah. I mean, I mean, I thought about that, too.

28:01So it’s almost, like, what does that mean, you know, that they’re all, like, coming to the same conclusion?

28:07But, again, I just think, like, it seems like from all the other stuff that I was reading as well is that some sort of open source ban is what they want.

28:17You know, that’s, like, that’s what they’re trying to push for.

28:21But it seems like at least for now, Trump is fighting back.

28:25And, obviously, Jensen is definitely fighting back.

28:28You know, maybe Jensen is going to be, like, the hero and all.

28:31Because, also, you know Jensen’s also, he’s also doing his own version of it, right?

28:36So it’s, like, I think everybody is kind of using their AI conciliary and coming up with their strategy based on everybody else’s reactions to the board.

28:48I think it’s really interesting.

28:50Like, I was very, very much confused this weekend.

28:54I’m still a little confused of, like, where to go from here, right?

29:00Again, I think, personally, I’m going a little bit on, like, Leopold’s actions last week of he, again, he’s a really, really smart guy.

29:13And so I think the fact that he was so aggressive last week into this, I’m assuming that he knew, maybe he didn’t know exactly what was coming, but I assume he had an idea of what was coming.

29:23I, you know, he’s in the EA circle.

29:26So I’m sure a lot of these guys are in group chats together regardless, right?

29:30And so he probably read it, and, like, maybe it’s one of those things where the market’s wrong, and then, you know, when Anthropik goes public, they’re, like, yeah, we’re, like, our growth is accelerating because we have more compute now, and our margin’s going to be, like, over 90%.

29:45And people are, like, buy, buy, buy, buy.

29:48And, you know, that makes for a more successful IPO.

29:51So I don’t know.

29:53I just think it’s very interesting.

29:58Yeah. As of right now, I’m still long. I haven’t changed any of my positioning. I’m much more keen to maybe cutting half of my exposure if maybe we get a little more weakness later this week. Right now, I’m like wait and see, but I’m just waiting for new data to come out, which is kind of what I think any investor should be doing.

30:23If you feel like, all right, it’s over. Cause like that to me was like my number one question on Saturday is, is the AI CapEx trade over? And I don’t know if I have a conclusive answer just yet. It seems like it, it might be for now. Right. But I also, I just, you know, again, I hear them talk and they’re like, we are so compute constrained. We don’t have, like, we have so much demand for our compute that I’m like, all right, well.

30:49But they’re just losing so much money. Each of these labs is losing so much money. And I feel like there’s a pawn move here of like, you could lose less money by just slowing down.

31:04And also margin will go up here. Like margin goes up. If you’re not pushing forward, margins go up as your, you have more compute and you have more efficient models and you can, um, man, like I, I really think it, I think this comes, it’s a large part of this is a revenue and cost and profit move with everybody thinking about IPO.

31:33Because again, all this money is, it’s all make believe right now. Uh, a large part of this is certainly wanting to, or at least pressure to, uh, realize some gains here. Um, but also, you know, we’ll, we’ll know more, I think over the coming days, just from the actions of these labs.

31:53And, uh, I certainly think the political side is going to get stirred up this week. Um, obviously the political side has been a big part of the news here, uh, the last few days with the clarity act, uh, as well as, uh, the actions happening over in the middle East.

32:13Um, I know people are calling and saying oil likely going back up towards one 20, um, as the conflict over there seems to just becoming an unsolvable mess. Um, and clarity act, uh, likely also, we, we’ve seen like the whiplash of like Bitcoin and Ethereum pumped up a little bit, uh, over the weekend and into yesterday with, uh, the assumption that, you know, clarity act actually might not be dead.

32:41And then into this morning, it’s like, all right. Uh, it seems like there’s just a few people that are going to block this no matter what. Um, and now you can see crypto is getting hit, uh, across the board, uh, with some sell off here. Um, I, well, I think the clarity act is just doomed at this point. I I’m so, I’ve lost so much confidence. I really wasn’t hoping for, uh, something to happen, but I just think, I don’t think it’s going to happen.

33:09I, I, I, I think you have, we’re too close to the midterms.

33:15Yeah. I mean, if you look at odds over the last week on clarity, it’s back at 12%. It’s lower than it was.

33:25Yeah. Yeah. So here you can see the, a month, you know, uh, it spiked up earlier this week, September, I guess Monday, yesterday, yesterday morning.

33:36It was, it was Sunday. It was like Sunday into Monday. Um, and then immediately started selling off. First off, I want to commend you on, that was a great segue. That was incredible. Like while you were doing it, I knew it was coming. And I was like, man, what a great segue.

33:53Right. But yeah, no. So, but yeah, no, I, I agree with you. I think that like for crypto, um, the clarity act, people were starting to get bulled up on the clarity act.

34:03Uh, that would be positive. Hopefully we get some crypto regulation. I saw, I think, um, I saw Mike Novogratz post something last night, kind of as like a Hail Mary, like, you know, let’s, let’s get this, let’s get this done.

34:18And then I read some from somebody else basically saying that if we don’t get this passed, we’re probably not getting crypto regulation for like a really long time. Um, and that probably after, I guess, depending on who wins the next presidential election, you know, crypto might be like the pariah again.

34:38Right. Kind of like what we were seeing during the Biden administration where, you know, um, anything really, you know, anything related to crypto, not great.

34:48So I think it’s probably what’s happening there, even though the odds weren’t that high, I think people were starting to get ahead of themselves.

34:56Uh, and then also, uh, obviously, uh, I think crypto has been getting de-risked a little bit because of, uh, um, the Fed hike that’s expected, I think tomorrow.

35:08Right. And so the, yeah, so like that probably isn’t good, probably short-term, you know, weakness at the very least.

35:16Um, but I mean, you look at where rates are, you look at where oil is, I feel like the Trump administration probably needs to do something right on both the bond front and, um, the war front.

35:32Like I, I even kind of read, you know, a headline again, I don’t know how true this is, is that basically like, like, like the administration is looking for like any exit from the war.

35:42Right. Cause it’s like, especially going into a contentious midterm election where you’re already are on the wrong side of the, um, data center debate.

35:51Like the next hot topic is the war in Iran and like, how can you like save face in some way, shape or form?

35:58Um, you know, there’s the chat, there’s a meeting with Xi at the end of the month where I assume the two major topics are going to be the war in Iran and the data center, um, and the AI slowdown debate.

36:11And like realistically, and I was literally just listening to us right before we got on where Elon said, he was like kind of explaining his nuance in terms of his response, uh, to Dario.

36:22And he was basically like any slowdown needs to have China on board.

36:27Right. And so like, I do think, I think somebody at deep seek said that they were slowing down or they wanted to slow down or whatever.

36:34So the fact that maybe somebody at deep seek said the same, maybe there’s some sort of rumblings from China as well.

36:41So that if there is some semblance, so Elon kind of like elaborated, I guess, on his Twitter post of saying how it should be something where like, it’s almost like peer reviewed, right.

36:53Where like everybody can peer review everybody else’s models to make sure it’s safe.

36:58Um, I don’t know exactly what that looks like, but you know, he basically said that if somebody tries to distill the model, it’s in the logs and you would immediately know.

37:06So like, you know, it would be pretty trustworthy to peer review stuff, but he’s, he basically said that unless China agrees to it, um, it’s a moot point.

37:16So I think probably everybody is trying to contact the administration before this meeting with Xi, try to see what’s going on there.

37:26Um, and again, like the AI trade, like it affects the macro, which affects crypto.

37:30Right. And so, you know, crypto has been, uh, I think it’s been weak today.

37:35Um, since I feel like this, uh, let me pull up a chart of, of Bitcoin really quick.

37:42It’s like at the lows, right.

37:44It’s at like, uh, it’s at support, um, holding in, but I do think that maybe we could get, you know, some more weakness here.

37:53And, you know, we had like, but also like, you have to realize this up move was driven by macro, not by clarity act, right?

38:03This, so that was definitely not clarity.

38:05I a hundred percent. Clarity act was maybe like here.

38:11No, no, no.

38:14It’s a little, it’s this little move on yesterday.

38:18No clarity. There are no clarity act rumblings until Sunday.

38:22This was, this was the jobs report on Friday and then clarity act was here.

38:27Correct. Yes. Yesterday’s move on Bitcoin was the clarity act stuff, which was what three, not even 3%, 2% maybe.

38:35Yeah. Um, so like, I don’t know. I think that like people’s expectations got a little ahead of themselves, but like, ultimately I think the trade is still, we’re going to like, we’re going to print money.

38:49Right. It’s like, the question is like, when this, and okay.

38:53So I’m very rarely a, like, let’s throw a short on, I think right now from a risk reward perspective, I can’t, unless there is a white swan event.

39:07And so like, when you think about like, what are the possible white swan events, which is, you know, kind of an oxymoron of like knowing what’s going to happen.

39:15But will the clarity, would the clarity act pass?

39:19I think that is completely off the table is like a 0% chance at this point.

39:24Would the war in Iran stop?

39:26Nope. That’s definitely not happening. Um, are we going to see, why are you so, why are you so certain that’s not happening?

39:34I, I don’t, I can’t fathom a non end of the, like, like a spectrum.

39:44So like spectrum move here that would happen.

39:48And, and I’m saying like short term, like this week, like what do I think is going to happen?

39:51I just think with like, everything that we know that is happening here, um, and that we could.

39:57We’ll reasonably logically assume we’re likely going to see continued pullbacks. The only thing is rate decision. That is the only thing that could be like, well, didn’t see that coming.

40:13Yeah, so I think that like, I don’t know, to give Trump, I don’t know what I just did here, to give Trump some credit, right, is like this chart probably scares them more than anything in the world, right?

40:25The stock market down. And so like, if the stock market’s down 1%, right, like he’s like, on truth social, trying to, you know, strong arm it higher. And he looks at that, right? So I think he understands that, or he feels that how the stock market does is how his approval rating is and how he’ll be viewed.

40:50And I don’t know, I do think he probably, at this point, it’s probably like, all right, the war is lasting too long. Let’s get the price of oil down, especially heading into midterms. Let’s get the price of oil down.

41:02I also know that, you know, if we like get a truce or whatever it is, some sort of resolution in the Middle East, it’s positive for asset prices.

41:12So like, I think that that’s probably the upside risk. But I mean, I see, I also like, if I were to put on a short, not that I’m advocating for it, but like, I guess you could short Bitcoin and give it to like above 80 if that was the trade you wanted to put on.

41:26Yeah. But again, like, I just think that like, this to me is like the canary in the coal mine of like, we’re gonna be printing money sooner rather than later. Like, how’s how’s gold doing? Where’s gold? Here we go. You know, like this was the gold up move. It’s the gold has also had a pullback. But, you know, at some point, it’s like a coiled spring, probably as well. Right. So I think gold and Bitcoin are.

41:55I mean, I guess it is a good, like, the that’s the canary in the coal mine, we are going to print money, that that doubt comes in. But it ultimately, we will have to print money here.

42:10Yeah, I mean, the question is, like, you scenarios, I think I’ve said it a couple times is like, in liquidity scenarios, right? You sell what you can, not what you want. Right. And so gold, you know, these hard assets will probably have stronger bids, but they will be sold.

42:29Like, I remember in, in during the financial crisis, like, when Lehman went under, like gold got hit pretty hard, the gold then bounced hardest out of like, all the asset classes, right?

42:41Okay, so we’re, we’re just seeing a sell off into liquidity, people are selling. And then these just, again, the strongest names here when we’re like, whoever’s throwing the most strength.

42:54Yeah, like hard assets, right? Scarce assets that you can’t make more of, right? Like you can’t, you can print, you can print infinite dollars, you know, with the press, the pressing of a button.

43:04But you obviously can’t make more Bitcoin, any of these hard assets, like they all start to go higher. The question is, what happens between now and then, right? Is Bitcoin 5% lower, 10% lower, 20% lower? Your guess is as good as mine, right? That’s kind of like, how everything plays out. And like, you have to determine your position.

43:25So like, I don’t think like a short here is like, the worst position. I just like, you’re just, I think the problem is like, you’re shorting Bitcoin down so much.

43:35But like, if it’s like a short term trade, then, then yeah, I was, I was speaking short term right now.

43:40Yeah. I mean, look, we saw very similar things happening in the meme coin market. And I think they’re still continuing to play out here, which is people are consolidating anything that is not a B or A tier and is getting completely destroyed right now.

43:58And you just see people rotating into harder assets across the board or into cash.

44:05And, you know, you can kind of see it across the bottom of the screen as these have come across. Obviously, majors like Bitcoin, ETH, and SOL are all down between two and a half and 4% right now.

44:17But even your riskier plays like pump here, we’re still seeing those take a little hit on the head, because I think there are a lot of people that are like, hey, I’m up, I’m up big right now. I’ve got, I’ve got my gains.

44:31We aren’t sure what’s going to happen with regulation. I will note pump unlocks around the corner for a lot of people.

44:38So, you know, do you want to make sure that that’s on. And I think I think that unlock had started in August at the investor level, but I believe employee stuff.

44:55I’ve heard rumblings about that. I still think pump right now is a good buy at a certain price or at a certain macro condition where you just got to recognize their printing capital.

45:11Their number one risk right now is the, I think we’re seeing day after day, people care less about what chain something is on.

45:22We’re seeing products come out that are allowing people to launch tokens across three chains at once. And that’d be a shared liquidity pool cross chain and a shared market cap share chain.

45:33That was the, that was the, that was like the, that, that token, that rug across three chains at the same time. Right.

45:40Like, yeah, it was the first cross chain rug I’ve ever seen, but like, you can see, you can see that there is a move right now strongly in the crypto market on solving the last.

45:55And I call it like the last frontier of consumer problems, which is, uh, easy deposit.

46:01So Apple pay as well as ACH, uh, instant, uh, USDC deposit, um, as well as chain capital.

46:12Um, we’ve seen this with cross venue. So like we, at like loot, we’re trying to solve this for perps, um, where we’re building out services that allow you to trade any perp venue with a singular USDC.

46:25Um, and this is mainly across like, Hey, I want this asset, but it’s only on trade X, Y, Z, or I want, uh, a cheaper funding rate.

46:35Cause I’m going to do a basis trade, or I’m going to do, um, a long-term trade.

46:40And I just want to have exposure at the best rate. Where would I put that on?

46:45Um, we’re seeing this also happen on the meme side where a lot of people are like, I don’t really care.

46:51I just want this because it’s being talked about and it has attention.

46:56Um, so I definitely want to put that on people’s radar that that is something.

47:02Additionally, uh, we’re seeing a move towards a lot of people on the commodity side.

47:09Obviously people are buying stock tokenized stocks, but the only attention that seems to be getting any attention in the alternative asset side right now is anything that is paired to an equity.

47:20Um, so all memes, everything seems to be paired to an equity.

47:24Um, and it’s not only on Robinhood.

47:27Now we’re seeing this happen on finance. We’re seeing this happen on base.

47:30Um, obviously Robinhood right now is kind of the echo, the, uh, the epicenter of all this, but that ecosystem, I think is going to start to lose some of its like uniqueness.

47:41As you see other chains like in chain, who, again, we’ve talked a ton about them because of Quotron’s.

47:47And even though the, we see Quotron prices down right now, the announcements out of Inc chain around their tokenized equities and their partnerships with them taking a hundred million dollars from NASDAQ, their X stocks.

48:00You know, that every other chain right now is like, we need RWAs, we need tokenized equities, and we need to be positioned in a way that people can trade whatever they want here.

48:11And then it becomes really kind of a race to the bottom of like, who has the, who has the best fees and the best offering.

48:17Um, and then all the trading venues right now are trying to solve for, we really don’t care what chain, we just want our users to be able to hit buy and get the best, the best.

48:26Yeah, well, I think, I think ultimately it, who has the best distribution, right?

48:32Like, I think that’s kind of like in, you know, kind of why has FOMO been so good is they have a great UI and they have the best distribution.

48:42You know what I mean? Like they’ve, they’ve been crushing it, right? On being able to convert people from seeing an ad or a video or whatever to signing up.

48:50Right. And so I think that, um, to your point, I think that the fact, like, you know, apps like FOMO, like loot, like pump fun are making it easier for people to speculate on these tokens.

49:05And then it doesn’t really matter what chain they’re on.

49:08Right. They just want like access to, to whatever is moving.

49:12Right. And so if, if that gets abstracted away, then it becomes easier to speculate on more and more things.

49:18Right. So, yeah, I, I, you know, I think.

49:22And I, and I really do think that’s the end game.

49:24If you kind of take the direction that the AI trade is going, the same thing is happening on the blockchain and consumer trading side, which is everybody, uh, is going to want to speculate on everything.

49:41And a lot of that is fueled by this idea of like, all right, well, what else is there to do in a world that is just AI?

49:48Um, like where, where are you getting your dopamine hit?

49:51Where are you getting your additional return?

49:53So, uh, you, I got an additional concern, um, when, um, when.

49:56Um, when, uh, you, you know, means, I have to admit it. Um, when, um. Um, when. You know, when. You, I’m, I, I’m going to say. Thank you. Anybody can go do a job. Anybody can create a product or business overnight. Where is the exponential upside? Because that is where attention is going to go.

50:10I think there’s just a human innate nature to want more. And we’re seeing that come into the trading space. It’s why trading is cool all of a sudden, right?

50:18Because people, instead of it being like, oh, I can blow up and become famous on Instagram. Like that used to be like every kid’s dream. They’re like, that’s the exponential upside is become famous or to become a professional soccer player, football player.

50:33You’re seeing this kind of trickle into trading now where it’s like, that’s the exponential upside. That’s how to become an outlier. That’s how to get the 0.0001% lifestyle. I could hit the greatest trade.

50:44I think, I guess like my question to you is, do you think that’s really what it is? Or is that just us in our echo chamber here?

50:53No, I think from, I think stepping back and be like, if I wasn’t in the industry where, what is like feeling people right now, even outside of the industry that I talk to, it is like, how do I, how do I get ahead right now?

51:10That is a driving nature of like, how do I, how do I get the greatest life for myself? And I think trading has become so accessible, so easy. So like our echo chamber was so pulled off that it’s now kind of become so easy to get involved in it that anybody can do it.

51:29I’ve got, I mean, I have friends that have never touched crypto and now this is their first cycle in and they’re, I mean, they’re throwing thousand dollar clips and I have friends that are up 60, $70,000 that they’re like, all right, I’m, I’m in. And they know about the memes. They know about the technology. They know they’re like, they’re watching the Clarity Act.

51:47I’m going to, this week, I’m going to do my own personal DD and try to find people. Cause I think my issue is that I’m just so deep in the weeds on this, that most of the people I talk to are traders. So, but like, I really would like to, to talk to people that are not right. So I’m going to do my own personal, my own personal surveys on this and let you know what I think.

52:13You know, look, and I could be, I could be way over indexed on this. Again, I do run a trading company. So that is like quite literally all I do. The devil’s advocate here is the, it’s a very similar user demographic slash user avatar that I’m describing.

52:32And I’ve contradicted myself by saying my research on the AI side from fantasy football, as well as other tasks has been, every one of those consumers has been like, I’m not that stupid. You’re dumb. It’s a bad technology. I don’t want to get involved. Obviously there’s a little less financial directness, right?

52:52It’s like a secondary effect of using AI is making more money. But that’s a technology adoption where trading is a technology adoption of like, Hey, I want to buy, you know, pre IPO stocks.

53:06Um, what is the demand look like for that?

53:10We’ll have to see clarity act is, is certainly going to affect this where I think a lot of these people also, um, there’s, there’s still kind of like a scared approach of like the consumer, not knowing if what they’re touching is going to take all their money or not.

53:25Or is it, you know, how is it viewed by the government, IRS, SEC, et cetera?

53:34Yeah. It’s why it’s also why I think pump like pumps a good example of this. It’s why I think pump isn’t trading at like a $20 billion market cap valuation right now is there’s scared at the institutional level as well.

53:49You do have capital that has, it’s just not flowing into some of these names because of no clarity act. People don’t know.

53:56Well, I guess also isn’t so, I mean, I don’t know. I, with the amount, I just think like, I feel like there’s just like so much selling that’s going on that we don’t know about if like they’re doing these daily buybacks, buy and burns for like seven figures and the token’s not going anywhere.

54:15I don’t know. It’s just like weird. The price action doesn’t make sense to me in the sense that, uh, even if there wasn’t necessarily institutional capital, I feel like there’d be a good amount of people there’d be, there’s a good amount of like buybacks.

54:26Buy pressure. Maybe it’s not enough. I don’t know. I just like, I have no idea.

54:30It’s very weird. Uh, when I see like charts like that, where I’m like, this is very bullish and like the chart doesn’t really go up. It doesn’t, you know what I mean? Like, I mean, granted it just had a nice run, but like, I don’t know. It’s just like, it’s been weak for the last, it’s been weaker than expected for the last like year or whenever the, whenever it went live a year and a half.

54:51Do you have any games that you think have charts that are underperforming where they should be? Cause I know, and obviously I think we’ve talked about, uh, towel a bit on the show that being a laggard to the AI trade and decentralized AI and compute.

55:08Um, yeah. I mean, so we saw this breakup towards that breakout line a bit, but this was this, um, this breakout was somebody pairing towel on Solana with butt tensor.

55:23So it was a butt tensor meme coin, uh, that drove a lot of this demand.

55:30You hate to see, you hate to see that the breakout was caused by a meme coin.

55:35Yeah. So, uh, but yeah, I mean, listen, I think that, um, I think that again, one of the things I like the most about the bit tensor ecosystem is that const reborn, um, is very active.

55:53I think he takes people’s feedback. He’s a very active founder. He’s mission driven. It doesn’t seem like he’s driven by money per se, or is his primary motivator.

56:03And so that to me, I’m like, dude, I’m going to like, he keeps on shipping, right? Like, it’s not like one of those projects that we’ve seen that’s raised, whatever, a hundred, $200 million from VCs.

56:13Their whole point is to get to ICO. Then they get to ICO and it’s kind of like game over. Like he’s, he’s in the trenches, he’s shipping.

56:22There’s things that are being built on bit tensor subnets that, you know, are hoping to scale, you know, like they’re hoping to scale multi-billion dollar businesses.

56:30And so I think that to me, it’s still a bet that like, I’m willing to make. Uh, and so I’m long there. Yeah. I mean, I think like a lot of the stuff that I’ve been like focused on more has been like on chain stuff, obviously, Quotrons.

56:47Quotrons are down. You know, I, I feel like this is something we have to discuss. Obviously I’m a big holder. You’re a big holder. Um, price is down 66% almost from all time high, uh, hovering down.

57:00It’s been kind of juggling between seven and $8 million market cap right now on the token side. Uh, we had the floor at like 4.5 ETH, uh, almost 5 ETH. I think at one point, um, floor is now down to 2.3 ETH.

57:16$5,600. Um, I, I guess the good part about this is unique owners has gone up from what it was like 16, 17%. It’s up to 22% now. Um, you only have, uh, 4.5% listed, which actually has grown, uh, significantly. Um, it was down like 130 only listed down. It’s up another 60 listed. Um, so that’s grown from three, about 3% up to 4.5% in the last 24 hours. Um, I, I think this is, I don’t know. I’m curious to get your take and I can give you my take afterwards. Cause I think mine’s a little bit more of like, no news is bad news. Right. And in a, okay.

58:02I think first off, like, I think people need to get away from this whole, I need news every single day. I mean, that’s just not the way the world works. I like, and if people want to sell on that, that’s cool. I’m, I’m personally very happy for people to sell because I earn fees on every sale. Right. So as a NFT holder.

58:23So you just made $10,000 on, uh, on fees just by holding.

58:27Yeah. Last week. And so like that to me, like, to me, it’s just like, I think I see the vision there. I, like I said, my, my bull case on this is that tokenized equities is going to be a huge market.

58:41And, you know, we’re at the beginning of it. I think I read something from block works yesterday, how tokenized equities is up 30 X year over year, 30 X year over year. And that’s like, and that, that puts it only at 300 billion, I think in terms of no, not 300, but 30 billion in turn. And I think that’s in terms of volume, maybe. I think that might be volume. I don’t think it’s AUM. I think that’s too high for it to be AUM, but I think it might be in terms of volume. And that number is going to be much, much higher than what it is today. And so I think that like Quotrons is a play on that, you know, convexity of that.

59:21A hundred percent platform. So like, you know, people that want to sell because there’s no news announcement in 24 hours. Cool. Like, like my opinion is like, go for it, man. Like, please sell. Because again, as a Quotrons holder, I earned those fees.

59:37And I think that people in today’s trading environment are very, very used to, you know, rotating very quickly. And it’s like, cool. If you want to rotate very quickly, that’s your prerogative, whatever. But I do think that there are certain projects that you want to hold. And I think this is one of them, right?

59:56So it’s, um, So that’s kind of like my opinion on it. And if people want to sell, sell. I do think people that have longer than a five-minute time horizon are going to do way better than the people that don’t.

1:00:11Yeah, I think this is one of the few trades that I’ve just kind of diamond handed. I mean, I think I’m down like six figures in P&L at this point, which is unrealized P&L, which I feel like normally I would have been a little bit more upset.

1:00:30But from knowing that this is a centralized exchange with its own chain, with CTFC licensing, with a hundred million dollar investment from the NASDAQ, with rumors around Hyperliquid, with rumors around other decentralized perp innovations coming, has X stuff?

1:00:51Like, if you kind of lay it all out, it’s like, all right, if this can’t hold a, you know, 50 to a hundred million dollar market cap combined across NFTs and token, then there is just no play in the real revenue, real company, real asset class playbook.

1:01:12And you’re much better just closing your eyes and going and playing the vaporware trade, which I don’t think on a long time horizon plays out.

1:01:21Obviously, the macro here affecting crypto, Clarity Act affecting some things here.

1:01:29But yeah, I think long term, I would rather take a flyer on Kraken than anonymous dev launching a meme coin.

1:01:37Right. So like, I mean, also to that point is, if, you know, Cochon’s is what, 50, 60% from all time highs, but you take a look at a lot of other tokens, they’re doing much worse in that same time period.

1:01:50And so, you know, I think like everything’s cyclical. And again, I just, I personally like putting my money into projects where I see long term potential and it’s not just, oh, this is like the rotation trade.

1:02:07And I’m, I’m, I’m, I’m, I’m long this thing into the catalyst that it gets followed by Vlad.

1:02:15Like that to me is not like the type of trading I like to do, but that’s like the trading that has been working.

1:02:23And so I get it. People do that trade and whatever, but that’s not just, that’s just not me.

1:02:29I’d rather be able to hold some, like for me, what I find the best use of my time and why I’m very interested in Cochon’s is like, I spend the majority of my day, like trying to get people to like do something on the Cochon’s ecosystem.

1:02:44Right. And I’m just like, Hey, you should do something here. Right. And just like talking to builders.

1:02:48But like, again, that takes time. Right. Like I know of like three or four cool projects from like builders that like I like that are long that want to launch on Cochon’s, but like it takes time. Right.

1:03:02Like if you want to build, like you can, you can fork something and copy pasta very quickly. You can do that in 24 hours, but if you’re building something new, it takes time.

1:03:12So if you don’t get that news and you’re impatient and you want to floor it so you can go catch some meme coin that you think is going to outperform it in that time, like that’s cool.

1:03:23I find that I generally out underperform in those scenarios where I sell one token to catch another token.

1:03:29It’s like, dude, like I have my thesis. I have my, my capital that I risked in it, you know, and it is what it is. Right.

1:03:38And so I don’t know. I just think that like, again, you, you, people have to learn to be patient.

1:03:43I think there’s like another, there’s another project that launched yesterday that somebody was telling me, I think sucked a lot of liquidity out of Robinhood chain in general was the standard reserve.

1:03:55Right. It launched last night. Ohm like mechanics.

1:04:00Um, I was, I was, I was on the white list for it. Uh, so I minted one, but then like the auction, the Dutch auction for both the charters.

1:04:08So basically I’ll, I’ll give like a high level overview. So basically it’s, um, I, I, I get it a little bit.

1:04:15Like, it’s more like you need to understand the game behind it. Right. And so, uh, basically you can buy a charter.

1:04:22So the, the, the, the goal of it is to create the central bank of crypto that, and it’s programmatic. Right.

1:04:28And so, um, it has these game mechanics of like burning, um, like to, to increase and reduce supply, uh, of what it’s backed by and stuff like that.

1:04:38And I think that’s like a later part of the game. Um, but like, if people want to understand that you can literally just plug in the website to your favorite AI and have it, you know, Eli five it for you.

1:04:49But the way, um, let’s say the first part of the game was operated was there was a thousand charters and the charters in NFT.

1:04:58If you own a charter, you can, uh, buy up to 10 branches per charter. Um, so the charters were auctioned. Uh, some people were given a white list to get in.

1:05:11And then there was a Dutch auction for the rest of them that started at 1.25 ETH and would finish at 0.15 ETH.

1:05:18Over the course of like 30 minutes, it sold out in about 15 seconds, I think 30 seconds, whatever, under a minute for sure at 1.25 ETH.

1:05:26And then it started trading and then bank branches.

1:05:29I think you can only, they only auction a hundred bank branches a day. And, um, each branch gets a percentage of revenue share that the product that no, sorry, doesn’t get a percentage of revenue share.

1:05:43Each branch gets their pro rata of 700,000 standard reserve tokens that gets emitted every day.

1:05:53So as more branches are auctioned, then if you only, you know, hold one branch, you start getting diluted over time, right?

1:06:01So you earn a certain amount the first day and then that amount goes down over the course of time.

1:06:07And so the branches sold out, um, I think in like under five minutes, um, as well.

1:06:14And so then, you know, the token, um, went up to, I think it started at like, I think a little under 2 million.

1:06:22And I think it peaked last night at around 40 something million.

1:06:25I think right now it’s trading at 30 ish, 33 million.

1:06:29Um, and this is like an Ohm, an Ohm fork, an Ohm like fork, a lot of Ohm mechanics on there.

1:06:38Um, there was a lot of hype around it because, uh, OX beans is, you know, a DeFi OG, like really good dev.

1:06:47People were hyped around it. And also, like, I will say like the launch went off flawlessly.

1:06:52Everybody’s been saying the same thing there. And so I think like, there was no, there was no, um, technical difficulties whatsoever.

1:07:02Um, you know, the, all the phases went as planned, maybe a couple minutes delayed here and there, but I think that’s like no big deal in the world of crypto.

1:07:10And I just think like the experience has been very, very good.

1:07:14Uh, and I don’t think there was any body either.

1:07:17Right. Cause there was like some sort of like CBBA came out.

1:07:19It was like, we tried to bought it. Didn’t we just bought on the open market.

1:07:23There you go. Right. And so like, you know, I think that, um, again, like that shows you like, it’s a, you know, it’s a quality project, a quality dev, and it probably like picks up steam from here.

1:07:35And again, this is one of those things. It’s like a three, three, three type game.

1:07:40Um, but I think there’s also mechanics for like the exit tax that kind of makes it expensive to exit, um, that I don’t think Ohm had.

1:07:49Right. And so I don’t know, I, I’m, I’m playing the game.

1:07:53I decide I’m just trying to figure out if I want to like buy the token on the market or not or whatever, but I just think it’s interesting.

1:08:02And so I think we, like, I personally want to see more stuff like this.

1:08:05This, this to me is like way more interesting than buying, um, mean coin that, you know, your catalyst is the CEO interacts with it or Vlad interact.

1:08:16Like to me, like those, I don’t know. I, I don’t like that type of stuff.

1:08:19I think this to me more longer type hold.

1:08:22So like, I’m, I’m looking at this, I’m going to be looking at it over the course of the day, trying to decide what I want to do.

1:08:29If I want to add to it, if I do, this is a game.

1:08:31At the end of the day, this is a game. This is not like a, everything’s a game.

1:08:35I mean, everything’s a game in crypto, right?

1:08:37Like it’s like, what is the game theory behind it?

1:08:39Right. And so what they ultimately want to do.

1:08:42And again, I haven’t read enough into the docs to know the long-term vision of it, but like they kind of want, it seems like they want to create some sort of stable coin that has a treasury backing where, um, if you own one of the charters, you’re, you kind of have like a vote in what’s going on and you’re like backing this stuff.

1:09:02So I don’t know, we’re going to see how it goes out, right?

1:09:05Like, I think like a lot of these, um, iterations of things that, um, went viral in the past is like, you know, there’s, there’s like key learnings from it and they tweak it and they’re like, maybe this works.

1:09:18And then maybe that works and maybe that works.

1:09:21And so, um, yeah, I mean, this, this thing could run.

1:09:25I mean, I don’t know, like also like, you know, net net, which is also an, an own fork, you know, went from, you know, under a million to, I don’t know what to top that 70 million or something.

1:09:36Right. And so like, it’s doing its own version of that.

1:09:38And I think this is like its own version of, uh, an own fork as well.

1:09:42And I’m sure we’re going to see plenty more. So like, I don’t, I don’t doubt that this is the last version of it, but like people, I mean, own went really high, but like also went very low.

1:09:53So it, yeah, ultimately, right.

1:09:55Like there were some mechanics in it that caused it, you know, to.

1:09:58To end really poorly. But I think people, like, again, I didn’t participate in OM personally. So I don’t really know the mechanics of why it failed. But, you know, these are a bunch of people had participated in it. And their forks and their versions of it, you know, they’re taking their learnings from OM.

1:10:17Like, there are things of it that obviously work because, you know, people were, like, buying in and stuff like that. But then it’s like, how do you help the downside volatility on things? And I think that’s what people are trying to solve. So, I don’t know, I think it’s interesting. Like, to me, again, I find this more interesting than buying a meme coin, right?

1:10:39And, but, like, again, like, I’m not, if I, if I buy more, at this point in time, it won’t be that much more, right? Like, I won’t be, like, putting six figures into it. It’d be, like, a trade that, you know, maybe, of course, a couple X’s on it. So, but yeah, like, I think that, like, again, like, my Quotrons, I, I’m not, I’m, like, literally sitting comfy in spot.

1:11:02The only thing I really look at is how much I’m making off the NFTs and what can I do personally to help increase volumes on, on Quotrons pools, right? And that, like, you know, like, for my new iPhone.

1:11:18Right, there you go. Right. And so, like, but, like, but that’s the thing, too, right? Like, you as a big holder, and that’s what I think is kind of, like, the power of, of Quotrons is, like, there’s a really good network of people that are involved that, like, somebody hits me up, and, you know, I’m, like, hey, have you, like, are you Q-pilled yet? And then if they’re not, you know, I’ll call with them. I try to Q-pill them.

1:11:39And, you know, I’ve done that now with a couple developers that, one of them, like, they want to build, like, a game on top of it, and, like, they’re good, like, game builders outside of crypto.

1:11:50And I’m, like, all right, cool. Like, you know, let’s do it. And, like, hopefully you make, you have good game mechanics. I think that’s one of the things that crypto has missed over the last couple years.

1:12:01Um, is that, you know, like, good, like, people are, like, oh, we’re going to make, like, the next, whatever, AAA game. And it’s, like, yeah, well, you’re not a game dev. So, like, it’s, it’s very hard to do it.

1:12:13Exactly. You know how to make games, whether it’s a casual game or AAA game, you’re definitely at a much more structural advantage. So, yeah, I, those are, like, my things, like, but, again, like, everything, I think, on-chain is subject to macro conditions.

1:12:30And we’re going to see, you know, what happens in terms of risk. If Bitcoin sells off, then, obviously, on-chain will sell off a little bit. And then, at the very least, maybe a lot of it. But, you know, at the very least, I think, like, we’re probably close to a bottom, right?

1:12:46So, you kind of want to be positioning in risk in terms of, you know, catching, like, the science will be very clear. It’ll be clear when we’ve bottomed. It’ll be clear when things are moving the other direction.

1:12:58I wouldn’t try to time the bottom, per se. I think that’s the one thing. Since doing the show, I’ve stopped thinking about absolutes and, like, hey, you get one entry point.

1:13:09And it’s more, like, as conditions change, like, should I be buying over a period of time here? Or should I be holding here? Or should I be selling over to the next, like, into the strength?

1:13:20And I think right now is, like, you got to be either in the hold or, like, hey, I, like, think, you know, the bottom is going to happen.

1:13:27And I’m going to start deploying capital. But, obviously, I’ll not, not in one, one bid.

1:13:33Right.

1:13:35Wow. So. Well, we’ll see. We will know. Conditions are certainly going to change over the next few days.

1:13:42We’re going to see more drama. We’re going to have, certainly, the labs are going to come out and speak more on what they’ve said over the last 96 hours.

1:13:53We’ll have Fed conversation here on rates, on Outlook, and we’ll likely know for a fact that the Clarity Act is fully dead for this year, I would say.

1:14:07It’s kind of clear that it’s dead, but I think we’ll have more confirmation as the week goes on.

1:14:14Seems that more information is flowing out every day on why it is dead and going to stay dead.

1:14:19But, look, as always, you know, you said this early on the show.

1:14:25Do we need to have patience? Have some patience for the next two days until we’re back on Thursday at 10 a.m.

1:14:3310.30 a.m. 10.30 a.m.

1:14:36Make sure you are following the full port X account.

1:14:40We’re posting clips as well as myself, Hunter Orell, and G Money NFT on X.

1:14:45And also, if you don’t catch us live, follow us on YouTube.

1:14:49We’re also on Spotify under Full Port Show.

1:14:54Yeah, so we’ve been trying to post stuff there.

1:14:56And if you have any ideas, suggestions, feel free to reach out to us.

1:15:00We’re always open to them. We’re going to – we need to – look, I love doing the show.

1:15:05We’ve got to talk about doing three days a week maybe here.

1:15:07I feel like we miss so much.

1:15:10I feel like we miss a lot, man. There’s a lot of things that I’m like, damn, if we could – if I could speak about this on Friday.

1:15:17I don’t know. We’ll talk about this offline.

1:15:22But, yeah, no, look, appreciate everybody jumping on.

1:15:25AI Trade, keep your attention there.

1:15:27And we’ll be back in two days.

1:15:30I appreciate you guys tuning in.

1:15:32Cheers, guys. Peace. Peace.