Robinhood Drama Market News and Trading Updates
The calls
Every call on the show8 calls
7:40HOODLong“The two companies that I can praise and I can be like, yes, they’re crushing it, are Kraken, and it is Robinhood.”$115.20−4.5%
“The two companies that I can praise and I can be like, yes, they’re crushing it, are Kraken, and it is Robinhood.”
Robinhood is aggressively leaning into tokenized equities and is named as one of the two early standouts.
26:30NBISLong“I still you know, like I still I’m still long it right.… I drew I think on this chart, the reverse head and shoulders that’s still like forming.”$228.51−4.5%
“I still you know, like I still I’m still long it right.… I drew I think on this chart, the reverse head and shoulders that’s still like forming.”
Still long Nebius after a small pullback, since the chart shows a forming reverse head and shoulders.
30:03GOLDLong“Gold is hovering above 4000 still.… it looks like it’s forming a base here. You want it to get long. Probably use that low from last week”$4,354−3.9%
“Gold is hovering above 4000 still.… it looks like it’s forming a base here. You want it to get long. Probably use that low from last week”
Gold pulled back but is forming a base above 4000, so a long entry near last week's low is suggested.
42:57METALong“I’m more bullish I think on meta long term than I am on Google”$654.16+11.4%
“I’m more bullish I think on meta long term than I am on Google”
Meta has the best proprietary data set, a large user base and Zuckerberg leaning in, which gives it an AI distribution edge.
42:57GOOGLAvoid“All the people leaving at Google for the last couple months is like super negative, right? Like it’s just like they’re not they’re not in the hunt.”$330.79−6.7%
“All the people leaving at Google for the last couple months is like super negative, right? Like it’s just like they’re not they’re not in the hunt.”
Talent departures suggest Google has fallen behind in the AI race, so the host prefers Meta.
43:13SPACEXLong“Why have I gotten more bullish on SpaceX over the last couple of weeks is because it, you know, they’re in the hunt.”$149.89+9.3%
“Why have I gotten more bullish on SpaceX over the last couple of weeks is because it, you know, they’re in the hunt.”
SpaceX is in the AI race with energy, and Elon Musk is seen as the best in the world at atoms.
48:23FWALong“I’d like to buy some. I’d like to add to the position here I’m definitely not looking to sell.”$0.0122+7.5%
“I’d like to buy some. I’d like to add to the position here I’m definitely not looking to sell.”
The FWA team keeps shipping, with v2, builder fee sharing and a lowering punk backing that drives spins, and the market cap is down about 66% to $12M.
53:15PUMPLong“This is I mean, this is why I see Pump fun winning on the long term.”$0.00383+49.6%
“This is I mean, this is why I see Pump fun winning on the long term.”
Speculation platforms with volume and marketing win in a gambling supercycle, and Pump.fun fits that.
Also came up
21:51ANTHROPICMention“I know anthropic really wants, you know, to get a good price on its IPO”$984.33
“I know anthropic really wants, you know, to get a good price on its IPO”
The discussion of the AI IPO season covers Anthropic's IPO pricing and its AI-risk messaging, with no trade call.
26:41NVDAMention“I think NVIDIA to me, you know, it’s pulling back. This was like the post earnings low.”$218.30
“I think NVIDIA to me, you know, it’s pulling back. This was like the post earnings low.”
NVIDIA is pulling back on antitrust news around its Groq acquisition, which is seen as likely a nothing burger.
44:22PONSMention“Pons, which we covered in the last show was right around the $820 million market cap.… As of this morning, though, that name is down significantly.”$0.5586
“Pons, which we covered in the last show was right around the $820 million market cap.… As of this morning, though, that name is down significantly.”
Pons popped near $1B and then fell to about $560M, which is used as an example of taking profit early.
45:08LITMention“We have lighter which was a big mover that coming down significantly overnight”$4.56
“We have lighter which was a big mover that coming down significantly overnight”
Lighter fell sharply overnight in a broad market-wide pullback.
47:13CARDSMention“Oh wow, cards is. This was like, I was looking at this this morning… they announced that I think the buyback”$0.1168
“Oh wow, cards is. This was like, I was looking at this this morning… they announced that I think the buyback”
Cards popped on a buyback announcement but made new lows, likely due to token unlocks and investor selling.
Pulled from the episode automatically and priced by Indeix at the moment it was said. Not investment advice.
Transcript
What is up, everybody? Welcome back to another episode of Full Port.
I’m so happy to be here today. We’ve got a lot to cover.
I’m here with my favorite co-host in the entire world, gmoney.
We’ve got some big things to talk about today.
Our goal, if you’re watching this show, is to help you make money, to navigate these markets, whether it’s equities, crypto, options, perps, Pokemon cards, flipping birdhouses.
If there’s a market out there, you should be able to trade it, and we should be able to help you navigate and make money in that market.
I think that’s the goal here. We’re fired up about it.
Gee, I got to say something. As I was going to tweet out that we were live, I see news on my timeline that gets me rather excited here.
And this is going to have to be the big topic on the show.
I see that we have NASDAQ investing in Kraken, which has been a rumored thing over the last two weeks, with NASDAQ, Hyperliquid, and Kraken all being part of this rumor mill where Hyperliquid is looking for licensing and US residency among some exchange with the licensing.
Kraken happens to have those licenses.
And then NASDAQ today announcing investment into Kraken.
This is big. This is big news. It’s also big news for my bags.
I will be very transparent about that. And it makes me very excited.
Look, we’re just seeing the legalization of tokenized equities, of crypto, all of this moving forward and forward and forward every day.
And you got to be prepared for what comes next.
And it looks like Kraken is setting up to be a winner here.
So, yeah, so obviously, the news seems to be really great.
I think that I’ve had this thought now for a while.
And I think this is why, especially since learning more about what Quotron is working on, I’ve become more bullish on it.
I do think that the next massive market, let’s call it trillion dollar market, in crypto is tokenized equities.
And I think what we’re starting to see is what happened with the tokenized dollar, with stablecoins, is now starting to happen with equities where everybody wants to be that platform layer.
And so I think people are playing for keeps.
I think we’ve seen a lot of them out there.
I think Kraken is the biggest or the second biggest in terms of AUM, in terms of assets issued.
I think the fact that NASDAQ is investing within them is super bullish, I think, in terms of their platform.
And as fellow Quotron’s holders, it’s probably super bullish for us too.
So I don’t know what that means, obviously, for on-chain.
But I feel like it’s a good thing.
And so exciting stuff there.
I think, yeah, again, I think this to me is a sector, I know for the last couple of months people have been talking about the ARWA supercycle.
And I think tokenized equities is front and center in terms of that.
And I think you’re starting to see that Robinhood has obviously the brand on the equity side, and they’ve been really leaning into that.
But as we’ve seen with Solana, Base, everybody’s doing their own version or spin of it.
Because xStocks is also on Solana.
I think it’s the biggest issuer of tokenized stocks on Solana.
And then I think Backpack is second behind them.
But like I said, this is a massive, massive, massive tamp.
And so that’s why I think everybody’s trying to attack it.
And even I was reading earlier this week, how I think the SEC has come out with some sort of commentary of something to the tune.
I don’t understand the exact implications of it, but maybe transfer agents being able to offer tokenized stock.
And you don’t have to necessarily have a broker deal license in order to do it.
Which means, and I think Arc is one of the people that are trying to do it.
I think with securitized maybe, I think that’s what the rumor is.
And there’s people think that maybe BlackRock gets into this game.
But again, I think people understand how important this is because this is probably going to play out exactly the way stablecoins played out.
And so I think there’s a massive opportunity set.
And I think, again, talking to the Quotrons bag, to me, this is kind of the stuff that makes me bullish on it, is that you’re going to be getting this massive push by the largest institutions on the planet.
Because even when you think about who are technically the biggest stablecoin winners over the last decade, it’s probably Tether, Circle.
I mean, those are the two that I can think of off the top of my head that were the biggest winners in terms of stablecoins.
And they came out of nowhere. They were crypto-native.
Now they’re institutional because they’re so big.
But I think a lot of these institutions are seeing what happened with stablecoins and being like, hey, we don’t want to leave this out.
Because also, they’re late to the game on perps.
They’re catching up on perps.
And they’re like, hey, well, tokenized equities is a big thing.
It’s going to be a big thing on a go-forward basis.
So they want to be involved.
So I think it’s interesting times ahead, for sure.
It’s going to be very competitive.
Very, very competitive.
And it will come down to a few things.
The analysis that I think everybody has to be looking at is, one, obviously the licensing and the partners that you have into those products.
So obviously, Hyperliquid is the dominant player in the tokenized equity space.
But I think in addition to that, it is going to come down to who is willing to probably push the envelope and be creative and try to be the disruptor.
And if you see that company taking the risk, doing things that no other company has done or is probably willing to do, I believe that is where you’re going to see the winner emerge.
And so early on here in this part of the cycle, I think the two standouts, the two companies that I can praise and I can be like, yes, they’re crushing it, are Kraken, and it is Robinhood.
Both of them seem to just be like, hey, we’re going to do whatever it takes.
We’re going to get our hands dirty.
We’re not going to be worried to listen to the crypto guys.
Nor are we going to be worried to jump into tokenized equities and really go run with it.
Like we saw the drama with AMC and Robinhood.
I believe that you probably have Coinbase and other exchanges and other chains that were like, hey, we don’t want to stir the pot. Robinhood seems to be like, look, we’re lawyered up.
We’ve got great general counsel and we’re happy to educate you for free.
Listen, I’m sure they all have really expensive high price lawyers.
They’re all multi-billion dollar companies.
So I don’t doubt that they’re all kind of getting the same type of counsel.
But yeah, to your point is I do think that there’s been a lot of money to be made in, let’s say, the gray areas of regulation of like, hey, this is not totally kosher, you know, maybe it’s maybe you’ll be there in a couple of years or it’s towing the line or whatever.
And, you know, if you wait for it to be totally kosher, like the opportunity set has passed you by, right?
Like, literally, if you were waiting for US regulations to issue a stablecoin, like you wouldn’t have been able to launch a stablecoin until like two years ago, right?
You know, or even like a year ago.
And obviously, that market has already been, for the most part, decided, I think, you know, people that are launching stablecoins now, I think it’s a really like uphill battle, right? Because, you know, it’s like if people like if you were to be like, hey, gee, like, I want to send you like this stablecoin and like I’ve never heard of it.
I’d be like, just like transfer it over to USDC and send it to me. Right?
Because like, I don’t know what you’re sending. Right. And so I think it’s like the same type of thing with tokenized stocks.
But yeah, I think, again, I think people understand how important this market is and how big it’s going to be.
And it’s going to be fun to watch it play out. Right. And like, but to your point is like, I think a lot of what we’re seeing, what Robinhood has shown is that this experimentation on chain is really creating some sort of demand sink because people want these stocks on chain. Right.
And so, you know, we’ve been talking about it now for a couple of weeks where people are like, we’re going to cause a short squeeze on blah, blah, blah on XYZ stock. And that is like totally ridiculous. I’m not saying that it can’t happen.
It is that you need a lot more like buying three million dollars worth of a stock isn’t going to do it. Right. Like three million dollars of your size is not size.
And so like three million dollars of AMC is like whatever that is, like a hundred thousand shares. I don’t even know what is it makes me actually Kobe’s where the guy was like, do you remember the guy was like talking to Kobe?
And he’s like, yeah, like, you know, these guys are using different size and Kobe replied back to me. He’s like, I don’t think our size is the same. And the guy was like, yeah, I’m using I’m like I’m placing like hundred thousand dollar trades.
And Kobe just replied back. Yeah, dot, dot, dot. Like it was an iconic tweet at the time. Same thing right now. We’re going through the same space of like you might think somebody buying three million dollars worth of AMC tokenized stock is big.
But you got to realize for Wall Street, that is absolutely that is joke money. You are the poorest person in the room at that point.
Yeah. So, you know, like, again, I think the to me, the interesting things is and we’re seeing it happen on chain is all the cool and interesting concepts that were brought about from the summer and composability and all that stuff.
Now you can actually do it with assets that are less volatile that hold value longer. Right.
Because even though Bitcoin and Ethereum are less volatile than alts, they’re still like very, very volatile products compared to most financial instruments.
So, you know, I think the fact that you can do that, you can now do these money, Legos type of things with NVIDIA, with, you know, Apple, you know, to me, that’s really interesting.
And I think that that’s where we’re going to see a lot of cool stuff happening. You know, we were talking about it a lot on Tuesday.
Turns out, dude, turns out this that rug that crumbs project was a rug. I don’t know if you saw that.
I did see that. It did annoy me quite quite a lot to see them drop at CA. I think I think from a consumer behavior standpoint, insanely cool idea.
Yeah, I want to fund it. I think people were talking about how I think receipts might be like the legit version of it.
So I got I got to do some VD on it. But yeah, like that goes to the experimentation. Right.
And the cool stuff that people can do. Right. I buy something in Apple. I get cash back as Apple stock or Costco, whatever, whatever it is. Right.
Like you go when you spend money at that place, you’re obviously a customer. You obviously like what they’re doing.
And so why not get rewarded in stock as opposed to just cash. Right. And again, I think it’s a psychological thing.
It’s good alignment, though. Right. Like I think I think it’s if you are loyal enough to go and use a company services, you should be a stakeholder in that in that company.
And it might be very small, right. You might only get make one hundred dollars worth of cash back from shopping at the company.
But if you’re like, let’s say you do that early enough. If you had been buying the first iPhone, I’m curious on a cashback basis, if you were getting two percent cashback per purchase since the first iPhone, what that would be worth.
I’m sure it’s enough for free. I found it right. Like, yeah, it’d definitely be worth a lot.
But yeah, no, I think like but again, I think we’re going to see a lot of these concepts really start to play out.
So it’s I think it’s really exciting times for on chain. You know, we’ve been saying it now for a couple of weeks how on chain has been picking up.
Makes more sense. And yeah, excited to kind of see where the space goes to from here.
Yeah. Well, if you haven’t if you’re a viewer of the show right now, it’s probably obvious today’s pretty red across the entire market.
Most cryptocurrency names are down. We are seeing a little bit of fear into the markets. Robinhood chain getting hit quite hard following a tweet from Rich Nick who put out a tweet, very ominous tweet saying I’m hearing things and I’ve been given insider’s information and this PDF. And I don’t like what I’m seeing. And I’m very worried about what happens with Robinhood chain. Once this information comes out with the entire industry basically pushing back and saying like, hey, this is irresponsible.
We don’t love that you’re just throwing this out there.
I’m hearing that the rumor is a mixture of things. Some people saying that it is Robinhood chain in engaging in wash trading, market making, volume boosting, as well as possibly them having relationships with different trading venues to basically push their tokens.
Again, this is all rumor. But I think it’s fair to assume that none of these know everybody’s playing a very mafia game right now for attention, volume, and to have a seat at the podium.
Whether you’re a trading venue, a chain, a project, it is pretty cutthroat to be winning right now. And I’m sure whatever he’s alluding to is something in that gray area of like, what do you have to do to win in this industry right now?
So yeah, so I saw like one or two tweets on the timeline alluding to maybe like, volume manufacturing or botting or whatever. And I’m just like, yeah, well, like, I feel like every like protocol crypto has done that for the last decade.
So I don’t really know what’s what’s new here, per se, you know what I mean? So, I don’t know, if, if it’s just that, then it’s like, to me, it’s kind of like a nothing burger. But just, you know, again, I don’t know the legality of it, or any of that stuff.
But I, to me, it’s just like, standard operating procedure in terms of like crypto, right? Like, I think, you know, one of the things that I think really frustrated me when I had an IDCC, and I was talking to VCs, and I was talking to like, our community and stuff like that.
And I would tell them like, Oh, here’s our like community count. And these are like, how many people show up to a thing. And you know, it’d be maybe in like the low thousands, it’d be between like two and 3000. And then like people would be like, oh, well, like this protocol, you know, just like has like, like, I’m like, like, you know, those are not real people. Like, I, I have real humans, there are seven, there are literally 75,000 people in this entire ecosystem right now. Yeah, like, that was the joke. Yeah. And so like, that’s to me, I always found frustrating. So I’m just like, all right, cool. Like, if you want these type of fake metric porn, which people, you know, I, there was a time and a place when it worked. But then obviously, I think over the last five years, we’ve seen that you know, those things are like hype and manufacturing, and it’s fake hype for the headline grab or whatever. And so I don’t know, it’s like if, you know, you telling me if it’s if it’s Robinhood, like, promoting the increase of trading, like, I mean, I guess those are real fees earned. I don’t know, I don’t really see the big deal, like, people like real money. Right. And so, you know, I think this was also like the thing
with Solana, right? People are like, Oh, well, the fees are so low. So there’s a lot of like, wash trading going on and stuff like that. But I’m like, but still there. I mean, you can’t really argue with economic activity that’s happening. Right? And so like, these are being paid. And so you have like, you can discount it. But like, at some point, it’s like, all right, well, the fees are being generated. So, you know, you gotta, you gotta like, respect the fees. Yeah, I, you can’t fake fees. I come back to that. You actually, you can. You can fake fees, to an extent. Right? Like fees are just, and we’ve seen them before. If there’s like a kickback or rebate on the back end. Sure. Right. But like, yeah. Well, then that’s what everybody’s doing right now is like, the whole the whole thing with the whole thing with like these trading platforms that like makes me laugh. And somebody who runs a trading platform is you will see all like huge volume, huge fees being like, Oh, they’re making a million dollars a day. And then, you look at some of the wallets, you understand what the competitiveness of getting these traders onto the platforms are. And I can assure you, like the top traders on these platforms are getting 85% plus of their fees kickback. If not all of them. You know, or maybe 80% plus they’re getting like a 15 to $25,000 monthly kickback in cash. The deals are eye watering, because the platforms understand that
it’s it’s actually marketing to be higher on these charts to be higher on June analytics to be higher, to be quoted by DJ news that you know, oh, this company just flipped this other company in monthly fees or monthly volume. They’re willing to lose a quarter million dollars to get get that a marketing because they know it brings in a quarter million dollars with the fees over the next month. For those added added users who jump jump on. And so you are seeing a lot of LARP, you are seeing a lot of smoke and mirror.
stuff. But as I’ve alluded to, you will not know the real winner until I think around December, when the final real bullets are, I think, shot when you start to get into airdrop season, you start to get into kind of a more mature part of the bull cycle. And anybody that was using an unsustainable trading mechanic, where they were basically just exit liquidity slash being farmed.
They will have left at that point, and they’ll be at the new place, which is why I get so excited about Kraken and Robinhood as a general company, because you know that they’re doing things that they have to be sustainable.
And they are moving more into I think an equities and tokenized, you know, pre equities, IPO esque world that is going to bring real traditional capital, Wall Street capital into the playbook.
And I think that’s probably what has helped hype for as a traded asset, which is, it has it’s trusted people feel like they can put money into it and put money into even the token and know okay, this isn’t going to wrong or they’re not going to do something super unethical.
The same way I look at those companies and say, all right, they’re building for they want they don’t want, you know, another $15 million worth of daily volume on chain, they want billions of dollars to come in daily on chain, what are they going to do to do that.
And they’re even if the fees are lower, they know that hey, we bring Wall Street on can bring on the top trading firms, the funds, we win.
And so that’s why I’m aligned. It’s also interesting, I think, obviously you can trade Robinhood crack in I think IPO stuff.
Rumor mill, I know they have OTC OTC deals happening.
You got to be aware of the IPO season coming up, which is why I think you and I are bullish on the API, the AI trade right now, knowing that a lot of these guys are about to pump their bags, which I think that tweet that came out.
The other day with the I think was an anthropic guy.
How AI is going to kill kill off humanity. Yeah, yeah, I thought that was marketing. I was like, this is great marketing.
So here’s the thing about anthropic and open AI because I saw a headline how open AI also kind of agrees that we should be regulating these AI systems are these these models is that like it’s I don’t know, like, who the fuck is advising them? You know what I mean? And like, I get it. I know anthropic really wants, you know, to get a good price on its IPO and stuff like that.
But it’s like, dude, like Dario went from six months ago being kind of like the savior of AI to being like the most hated man.
Like he like surpasses Sam Alman. You know what I mean?
You mean like character syndrome, like you really got to be on top of it.
Main character syndrome will ruin anybody’s image at some point. I think the second you get in that position, you got to reel it in.
Like you got to be quieter. The bigger you get in the news, the quieter you got to be.
Yeah, no, I tend to agree with that. But yeah, like it’s just like they I don’t know, I read that and I’m like, all right, cool.
So there’s a 10 over a 10 percent chance that humans are extinct within a decade. And I’m just like, I’m like, all right, well, let me just like live my best life.
Well, like, because like at this point, what can you do? The cat’s out of the bag. Right.
It’s like whether it happens or not, like nobody’s slowing down. Right.
Like, because even if we like put in regulations on the U.S. side, China’s going to keep on going. So yeah, man, I don’t I don’t know.
I just I think it’s kind of like marketing and I think everybody discounts it as marketing at this point.
And people are just like, oh, yeah, like, you know, whatever. Like, I don’t know.
I just like I try to take it with a grain of salt because like nobody really knows.
And I think even trying to put like odds on it is kind of weird because like you don’t know, like, I don’t like like what do you like people didn’t even know.
People can’t even predict what’s going to happen three to six months in the future, like whether it’s AI or not.
And so then how are you going to make that prediction for five to 10 years out?
Like, it just I think it’s just I think it’s kind of like a fool’s errand. Right.
Because like nobody really knows. There’s like a billion things that can happen between here and there.
That would change the course of how this all plays out.
Well, I guess the good news is we get to live it, watch it and trade it over the coming years.
Well, I don’t know. It’s I mean, it’s it sounds like if it’s true, it’s going to be like a really difficult time.
You know, like it’s not going to be fun. It’s like you’re I mean, you’re talking about like Terminator.
Well, like if that plays out again, I’m I will be enjoying this from my large pot of land with no need for the power grid.
And yeah, I’m good. Trust me. Well, I’m so that’s an error.
I’m selling NFT. I’m selling NFT memberships to Chateau Orrell. They start at 10.
I’m going to be good. I’m good.
Twenty five K to make it in the in your house. All right. Cool. All right.
Maybe I’ll be there. But then my I think it’s all like a country club membership plan right there.
I think that’s I think it’s affordable.
It’s like but here’s the thing, right? Is like in that scenario, it’s probably like the Walking Dead type of thing.
So it’s going to be like, all right, cool. Like I got to go to Hunter’s place.
Now I got to figure out how to get there and survive that trip. And hopefully he’s still alive.
Oh, I’m like, look, I’m good. I’m so good. All right.
I mean, in that scenario, dude, like your computer is probably like trying to kill you and your microwave trying to kill you.
I don’t know. I don’t know, man. Good luck. This is Rick and Morty. Rick and Morty episode wild.
Well, on the topic of A.I., obviously, I want to jump into equities here this morning, see what’s going on.
There’s any trades. We’ll jump in the crypto, what I see moving, maybe even NFTs at some point here.
But let’s jump, I guess, directly into Nebius.
Yeah, well, I just think like in general, it’s had like a little bit of pullback over the last couple of days after we were talking about on Tuesday.
I think A.I. in general caught a bid. I still you know, like I still I’m still long it right.
Like it’s still I drew I think on this chart, the reverse head and shoulders that’s still like forming.
And so the chart still looks healthy. I think NVIDIA to me, you know, it’s pulling back.
This is this was like the post earnings low. Back to there. There was like news of antitrust with their grock acquisition.
From a couple of months ago. So I don’t know. It seems like it’s going to kind of be like a little bit of a nothing burger, but still negative headlines.
The stuff I think like what we were just talking about picking up steam in terms of like negativity on the timeline.
A.I. bad. You know, I think it it just all these things probably come together as a confluence.
The I think PPI came in a little hot and that caused like a sell off.
So, yeah, I think all eyes on the CPI tomorrow. Warren Iran picking up, you know, oil back at what is it? A hundred bucks. Right.
So, again, I think like to me, like oil is like a really tough market to trade.
So I generally stay away other than like watching it, but not great in terms of like all the messaging that we were having from the Trump administration in terms of like this thing being over.
And turns out it’s starting to escalate. And I think there was news overnight saying that this could go to the end of his term, which is obviously not the news he wants to hear.
And so, yeah, I think it’s just like, you know, a confluence of things. We have a, you know, the weekend coming up.
I don’t know. I just think that maybe people are just trying to lock in some games and stuff like that.
But again, I think, you know, now all eyes on the Fed coming up on their next meeting and seeing what they’re going to do.
And like in general, for me, like I’m like I’m comfy. Like I know it’s a good meme, but like I’m comfy in spot. Right.
I will point out Sunrise Energy, which I think I started pounding the table on it pretty much when we first started.
I started tweeting about it publicly, I think around here in this area around 12 bucks, like new all time highs last night in in Australia.
And you did. You did. First show you brought this up. You said I can see this at a 2x before the end of Q3.
And you said that I’m going to love it. Like we got to find that clip. You literally were showing this on the show.
And you’re like, yeah, I can see this at a 2x by the end of Q3.
It’s like we’re almost there. We’re almost there. Well, that would be the end of Q3. So that would be great. Wow.
So, yeah. So, you know, I think in general, what this tells me too is that, again, and one of the reasons why I like Sunrise is that they are the bottleneck to the bottleneck.
Right. So we need energy, bloom boxes and bloom energies, bloom boxes, utilize Scandium.
Sunrise has the largest outside of China, Scandium deposits in the world that they’re working on.
And that’s bullish, right? You need you need Scandium in order to make bloom boxes.
You need bloom boxes in order to make energy. You need energy in order to make inference. Right.
And so that to me has been the trade there. And I think it helps that it’s in the physical commodity sector, which is obviously caught a bid.
Gold is hovering above 4000 still. You know, I think like all my gold, you know, like it’s had a pullback, but it looks like it’s forming a base here.
You want it to get long. Probably use that low from last week and, you know, see what’s good. Right.
And so I don’t know. Like to me, it’s probably, you know, the midterms are coming up.
So people are going to start getting anxious around that, whether, you know, Trump is going to be a lame duck president on the back half of his of his of his term.
Yeah, I don’t know what the odds are at the moment in terms of that, but we should look that up.
We should wait. Let’s pull that up on loot or poly market here.
I do know I do know the prediction market space recently. And obviously, I’m pretty excited because I won the NFL that last night on on loot.
I told myself I would do whatever keyboard monkey does for the entire season.
I would not think the only the only games I will not listen to him on are anything Raven related because I think this is our season.
But I am I am one and oh, so far. Let me pull this back up here. So right now, 53 percent chance, 87 percent chance.
OK, so. All right. So it looks like the Dems are going to take the House. But I mean, it looks like the Senate is a toss up.
So I mean, I think all eyes will be on this on these races. I guess these ones, I guess.
I don’t know what the ones are. But yeah, so I think that’s interesting.
And I think that’s worth keeping an eye on. And I bet you the price of risk asset changes depending on where these these odds point to.
But I do want to bring up the convo that we had on Tuesday because I did have my fantasy draft and you said that you got a lot of feedback from people.
Apps were asking you and myself included where I was like, hey, what’s the prompt that you use?
Yep. I had total number of six people either cloud or text me and ask me, hey, I watch the show. I need can you help me?
And also to those six people, you know, you are. Thank you. I didn’t know you guys watch the show. Good to have you viewing.
Yeah, dude, it was so so they say I did my draft. I had it. And as I don’t know if anybody from the draft is actually watching this, but I they I told you like they were like, you’re not allowed to use.
I had it like as my assistant. It was a it was an auction draft, which I’d never done before.
Oh, there’s so long. I felt like it was so much longer than a normal draft because because like every time you bid, like it extends the time of the pick as opposed to just being like you have 60 seconds to make your pick.
And then you have whatever breaks for yours. Yeah. So it was like two and a half hours. I was like, dude, like get me out of here.
So anyway, I was using Grock to help me. And then like I kind of set up Grock. I’m like, all right, this is like, you know, here’s the login.
Like you run the team out and already like picked up some free agents, dropped some people. So we’ll see how it does.
I think I was like number two in terms of like projected points after the draft. But I feel like I think that’s also like such a fake stat for the most part.
Like I feel like the people that have like the strongest projected teams, I don’t know if they always win. So whatever.
I don’t think they do. But here’s I never do like fantasy football. I usually hate it. This year, I’m actually know it because it is such a I don’t even have to open up.
Like I have like the notification of like the score on my phone. But what I’m doing now is I’m doing work. I’m building loot. I’m working on the show, whatever.
And I just go to a Claude pin chat. And I’m like, yo, by the way, like here, like I want to like check on everything. Let me know. How are we doing?
Can you look through like go and run all of your tasks? If there’s an update or something that you need my input on, let me know. But for the most part, go do it.
And it’ll come back and be like, oh, like we just scanned again. We’re going to scan in 24 hours. We just dropped this guy, picked this guy off of Freewaver.
And that added three points per week projected per game. And I’m like, to me, that’s fun. It’s more of like a like I’m playing this like battle.
And I know for a fact, again, both of my leagues that I’m like very, very vocal in, I’m in like group chats. I have a I sending all the messages in those.
So all the taunting like, like in my message chat with my Baltimore, my Baltimore guys, there’s a single thing that happens in that chat.
That is me. And so I got a text this morning and they’re like, wow, like you’re really laying on Ridge last night about his team.
I was like, oh, fuck, what did what did I say? And it literally was like it was like he attacks. He’s like, he was like, oh, my God, I just checked.
My team is really ass. And I replied to it. I replied back to it. Yeah, it is. Which in a sense of other stuff.
But I was like, OK, like I like this. Like it’s just it knows it knows like how I would talk. It has my voice.
It’s fun. It feels like an extension of me that I don’t have the control. I do like I will say like I love that you’re doing that.
I did want to name my team like Astra Extra High Reasoning after kind of like exactly what you said.
But I don’t know. I only know like three people in the league. And I’m like, no, you got it.
You’ve got to lean into it because I look everybody’s calling me GPT boy in chats and like I got invited to dinner by somebody and they’re like, oh, invite GPT boy.
I thought it was I was I thought it was funny. I was like because I corrected them and I was like, it’s in its fable, not GPT.
And they were like, what the fuck does that mean? I was like, man, we’re so early. We’re so early.
I’m going to after this. I’m going to change it to Astra Extra High Reasoning.
There you go. Extra High or whatever it is. But I will say I have burned through an insane amount of credits in the last week between Lute stuff, fantasy football and then even even like things around just like personal life stuff like I’ve burned through more tokens in a week than I think the last month combined.
I just have so much going on. There’s a lot of like big deal conversation.
But this is the first time I’ve had to load up more credits in this size ever.
Well, that’s a good thing because you’re being productive.
So I did I did listen to a podcast talking about like what’s new and Astra and how I think people because I think the reaction to Astra has been so like barbell-y.
People are either like AGI is here or like this thing can’t code.
And it like there’s no there hasn’t been like an in between.
I think one of the things that I was hearing is that Astra is able to do stuff for much cheaper than the previous models.
Like the cost basis has come down a lot. So I’m interested to mess around with it a lot more.
But I think that’s the trend you’ll see. And this is just from like my my early years in A.I. when we were doing like TensorFlow like CNN models.
You will see the low end cost continue to like go down more and more.
But to the person who’s like, hey, I have the most complex tasks, the heaviest lift.
I don’t care what it costs. I just need it done the best.
And I’m like, that’s where the edge is. That will I think you’ll continue to see that price go up and you’ll continue to see demand for that go up.
The mundane, simple, light lift task that will trend towards zero.
But we’re in thropic in chat to be T or in thropic and open A.I. and all these other labs understand the real win is if I and I always come back to this example.
I mean, g money have two companies and we’re trying to do a business deal.
Both of us are telling each other we’re not using A.I. We’re going to go back to our lawyers.
In reality, both of us are just going to our models. We’re going to use the most expensive, the most capable and the most contextualized model that we can that has all of our information.
And we’re basically it’s like playing Pokemon almost. It’s like, all right, model, go get us the best contract terms and deals and negotiate with this person and you do the same thing.
I will spend and use whatever it takes to get the best deal done. So will you.
And so it just becomes this like it’s like a video game at the end of the day.
And that’s I think that’s the trend you’ll start to see sending an email or like asking somebody to like check my Slack messages that trends towards zero like that.
Those tasks will just get easier and easier.
Yeah, no, that I totally agree with.
It’s funny, I spent a lot of time over this past week, I’m visiting my parents and I’m trying to help automate some of the tasks that they do, like balancing their checkbooks.
Right. And like they’re just like so they do it by hand and stuff like that.
And so I’m just like, all right. Well, you know, setting them up on like a quick in type website.
And then, you know, I was just kind of like going through with fable with co-work being like, hey, all right, do this, like import all of their old transactions.
And then I did all of it where, you know, myself for a while, like it would take it would take me a long time to do it on my own.
But now I’m just like, all right, here’s what you need to do. All right, let’s check it. This and that.
And now, like, I think I think I’m able to cut my parents time in that it takes from maybe like 20 to 30 hours a month, probably down to like one to two hours a month in terms of like how they spend on it.
And so I don’t know, I just like I think they were going to see more and more like it’s not easy enough for them to really use it yet.
But like, it’s probably like six months away for them to just like chat with, you know, chat GPT and make okay, like this is what I want you to do.
And like it logs in to the site because that’s basically what I was doing. I was logged in to the site.
I was telling it what changes I wanted to make how to, you know, set up the accounts, ask me any questions, you know, message me when you’re done. Right.
And I think, you know, again, to that level of productivity that we’re going to see on those types of things, I was using fable five. Right.
Because I was like, I don’t want any mistakes on this, but I was like, going to send an email, I would have used whatever Opus five. Right.
Just like it doesn’t need. I don’t need Albert Einstein to send somebody an email. Right. So this is true.
I also think it leads me down the path to the companies of the best distribution as you see these models get better or best position so Google and Meta here have me pretty excited for once their models get a little bit better.
And I think that’s a long tail being a user base like Facebook where Meta has a older demographic that still has not adopted into the AI world but they’re they’ve heard so much about it when they come out with a product that will get a lot of use.
And I think that’s something that I’ve paid for, I believe that is going to convert quite well to when you have this boomer who’s just never touched AI and all of a sudden they’re into it.
And it’s helping them, helping them understand the news to them that will be life changing where they’re like, oh my god, I don’t have to scroll.
I don’t know if that’s a great thesis actually as I’m like talking through it.
Well, I think so I think Facebook, here’s the thing about because I think it’s almost this is like a little bit of like the good Alexander thesis of there’s a barbell approach to people that will be very, very productive with it.
But then most people will just be like consuming AI slop and, you know, kind of like, oh, just a little a level of escapism that happens right when you’re like I want to be entertained and whether that’s like a world of hyper gambling or a world where you just disconnect and watch AI slop videos, you know, it’s just like kind of like pick your poison. And so, yeah, I’m more bullish I think on meta long term than I am on Google I kind of feel like all the stuff all the people leaving at Google for the last couple months is like super negative, right? Like it’s just like they’re not they’re not in the hunt. And it doesn’t seem like they have the talent to get to the hunt. Right? Like, again, there’s like, why have I gotten more bullish on SpaceX over the last couple of weeks is because it, you know, they’re in the hunt.
And they have like all they have the energy they have, you know, the guy that arguably is the best guy in the world at Adams, right? Like the guy can make anything in Elon Musk. And so, and he understands what’s what’s at play here.
And it just seems like Google was at play was in the race, like six to eight months ago, and it just seems like they’re not there now. Right?
But yeah, and but it also like, to the point the opposite is like, it seems like Zuckerberg is really leaning in. He knows what needs to get done. He’s doing it. And maybe he’s not in the race at the moment in terms of like frontier models, but he also has probably like probably the best proprietary data set on the planet. So, you know, there’s a lot of value there.
No, totally agree. Totally agree.
I do want to hop into maybe the world of crypto here Pons, which we covered in the last show was right around the $820 million market cap. You saw that pop almost to a billion.
Putting a lot of pressure on that short that we had covered the $70 million short.
As of this morning, though, that name is down significantly.
That is down to just about, I believe it was down like $500 million range.
So, we have a current number $560 million here on Lute.
So significant pullback. We are seeing more names as well down we have lighter which was a big mover that coming down significantly overnight, as well as basic I mean look every every name at this point has pullback significantly.
A lot of Robinhood speculation here concerns over what this Nick tweet was and I think also a lot of people playing into CPI concern that majors and alts will get hit.
I think if you are in a position and profit. I’ve gotten texts about this, the last, the last 24 hours I’ve gotten more text than ever over people who are like, it’s over.
I have, I have, you know, I’ve lost so much money I round tripped almost six figures.
To those people if you’re listening like it’s okay you’re not alone. But I think this is probably a good example of like, if you were up big on Pons going to a billion dollars and you’re starting to sense like, if you send a screenshot.
When the second you take a screenshot I think it should be a rule that you sell 10 15% of your bag if you haven’t sold any I think that’s where you take a quarter of the bag off the table.
Because that’s like a non bias indicator that something that was not expected to happen is happening.
And you probably shouldn’t Max bag things because of all the times I’ve seen people hold all the way to the tippy top and sell.
There’s about 100 other times I’ve seen somebody round trip their bag. And so that statistically you’re just not going to be able to sell at the Pico top all in one clip.
I’m just a big, I’m a big proponent of like, swap out.
You’re going to sell sell when the euphoria is high, which is harder said than done right like it’s really hard at the moment when when the price is up 200% and 24 hours of you like, like I should take some profit here, but that’s what you need to do.
Oh wow, cards is.
This was like, I was looking at this this morning, I thought it was like, kind of interesting because they announced that I think the buyback or something officially over over here and it popped and it’s been straight for sale.
And I think, and then I was looking at the market cap and I saw the market cap is like way higher and I think that’s, that’s just because there’s been token unlocked so it’s almost like they announced that maybe they’ve been buying stuff back but it’s been like, you know, made a new low it broke that low over there.
And I was like, I’m going to help the low from back in May. But yeah, I was just like super surprised at the price action because when they when they made that announcement was like, oh, this thing will probably start running.
And it would run but again, it could be just like tokens unlocking and investors selling that are up a bunch.
What is your take on FWA that has since our last coverage has dropped about 66% down to, I believe this morning $12 million market cap.
We’ve seen this kind of yo yo between 10 and 30 has seemed to be the pattern.
I want to, I’d like to buy some. I’d like to add to the position here I’m definitely not looking to sell.
I think, you know, he made some announcements yesterday, or the day before for v2 yesterday I think it was for v2.
I think it’s all bullish things like he’s taking feedback. And, you know, even after I and this was even more bullish even after he made the v2 announcement.
Somebody said there was a the guy, I think is miles 0x miles, who built ripster or like the pack rip the you can you can put money towards a group pack rip right and then it’ll buy all those packs and rip them.
And he was like, it would be really cool if a percentage of the fees went to app builders. So then app builders didn’t need to charge a fee on top of the FWA fee right so they can kind of like, it’s almost like being paid to bring traffic.
And so he like implemented that a couple hours later and I’m like, all right, this is great because I do think, and I’m pounding the table on this.
And I mean this now for a couple weeks of now like he’s built like the infrastructure layer, and he’s built out the inventory, the way it works. Now he just needs to get more, more people spinning right and so he’s obviously thinking about it a lot, I think, every like, the punk, the punk stuff where right he buys it from punk strategy puts it in the vault and lowers the backing every hour or every couple hours until it gets spun or until it gets one, like I think people hadn’t even realized that until like yesterday, right when I was like, I saw that I’m like, Oh, this is crazy bullish.
And that was like a week ago and I don’t think people are realizing it and it’s like, yeah, like, you know, if I could win if I had like really good odds of winning a crypto punk for whatever, 100, 200 bucks, like, I’ll tell you what, if the backing gets to like one ETH, like I’m definitely going to do some spins because that’s.
Oh, is that still going?
Yeah, it keeps on going.
And so when that one sells, then they buy another one and then they do like a reverse. It’s like a reverse. Think of it as like a reverse progressive pop because your odds get better as like the longer it’s in there.
Interesting. So like, I just think like, like that, right? Like you, like if I told you that you could win a punk at one back at one ETH backing, like you’d be you’d spin like all day.
What is that right now? This is interesting. So wait, for those who aren’t aware, they bought a punk, they put a backing behind it and then they’re lowering the backing every day.
Right now it’s punk 3498. The current backing looks to be 18.3, which is about half of what the four crypto punks are right now, which is about 30.
But it’s also want to highlight that they didn’t just buy a punk. They bought a punk from the punk strategy vault, right? Punk strategy was one of his previous projects.
There’s like 40 punks in that vault. So what he’s then doing is taking a portion of the fees, buying that punk, putting it in FWA, and then lowering the backing so that you’re the longer it’s in the pool, your chances of pulling it get higher.
And so like that will ultimately the theory there is as it gets lower, more people spin, right? So that leads to more spins, which is like what you want for the flywheel.
So I think like that’s awesome. He’s thinking about this stuff. And the fact that he’s willing to give builders building on top a portion of the fees. I think that’s also awesome.
What I think somebody needs to build is FOMO for FWA, right? Like I have a lot of ideas on this. Like I’m definitely down to like, if somebody’s like, I want to build this, I’ll give them like, this is what I think you should do.
My opinion, do with that what you will. I don’t want to build it, but I know that it needs to get built. And like once that gets built, like, then it’s like you just you need like a math, you need a growth marketer that knows how to do content on like TikTok and Instagram.
And then, you know, you start seeing like the same type of numbers that FOMO sees or that courtyard sees, right? Like these are these are all like the same types of concepts. You give people a different way to gamble.
Right. And so it’s like you pick your casino game, right? Do you want to meme coin? Do you want to do slot machines? Do you want to play cards? Right. Like if they’re all like different ways of gambling. And I think if we’re going in that gambling super cycle, like you want kind of exposure to every game in the casino. Right. Yeah. This is I mean, this is why I see Pump fun winning on the long term.
It’s why I mean, like anybody who’s making something that you can speculate on and it has the volume and has the marketing understand that, you know, hey, you have to come out here, you have to hit the dopamine, you have to make something that somebody knows that you can either win big or lose on is going to is only going to grow.
We’re just seeing that that sector seem to become more and more adopted across the board. And I think Polymarket and Kalshi also understand that from like a prediction market space of like anything should be able to be speculated on in any way.
And we’re just seeing different asset classes with different methodologies of getting speculation. And so it’s either going to be the role, it’s going to be the early asset or long tail asset creation model, which Pumpfun has the binary model, which again, Polymarket has.
And then I’m sure at some point there would be a new type of market that we see come out that gets mass adoption.
Also, like Gotcha is in there, right? Because I think Gotcha is like, I think the difference between, let’s say, the previous two and got like the thing I find interesting about the Gotcha mechanics is that for me, it’s like very casual gambling, right?
The thing with mean coins and even like prediction markets is that you have to be like glued to your screen. And if you miss, even if you miss it for like a second, you could that’s the difference between like losing everything.
Well, there’s skill, there’s skill in those. There’s no skill in like that. You’re just clicking a button and hoping on, you know, VFR.
Right. But that’s also right, like casual gaming, right? And so it’s like, all right, cool. I feel like taking a gamble right now and I want that dopamine hit in the next five minutes. Cool. Take a spin.
If I win, I win. If I lose, I don’t lose like all that much, comparatively speaking. And so yeah, like there, there again, like there’s a million ways a million, a million different like gaming genres, sub genres.
And I think it’s like the same thing. You know, we’ve seen that with gambling on even on a casino floor, right? There’s slots, there’s high limit slots, there’s table games, there’s, you know, roulette, poker games, all this stuff, right?
So it’s the same type of stuff.
Yep. Now I totally understand, totally agree.
Look, coming up on the end of the show here, I do want to hop into the NFT landscape.
As I just mentioned, floor and punk sitting around 29 ETH. But some other notable ones, Pudgy Penguins continues to kind of edge lower.
We saw them at a 4 ETH floor for the last few weeks. Now they’re edging towards 3.65.
Fortnite Beyot Club doing the same thing, 6.7 ETH floor.
I was just scrolling through this. And I keep coming back to this idea of identifying these older assets that in a NFT, true NFT bull market, where older assets that might have been forgotten about come back, are there deals out there. And this had me looking at gaming and Hearst, the currency currently sitting at 0.6 ETH floor.
Chromie Squiggle sitting at 2.19 ETH floor. V friends, Gary V has been super active on the timeline way back into crypto again, those seeing at 1.3 ETH floor.
I’m looking for deals. I think I’ve observed one or two out there that have me kind of debating one of them in the photography space.
The other, let me see, the other one, and just the straight up art space.
I think it’s going to happen. I think we are going to start to see people start to pick up a lot of these assets. And while it might not be the true return where we see these go to all new all time highs, I do think we’re at a low point for, okay, we have the first bear market really come after NFTs.
The assets that are worthless, they’re at zero and are never going to come back. The assets that are going to have some demand. And I think the mechanic or the behavioral purchasing that you want to see is, I went and made money on chain.
Now I want to go buy the digital flex to represent my win. What will those assets be? And even if they don’t go all time high on that next cycle when people make their money, they will most likely be the people that were like, I always want to chromie Squiggle.
I know what they represent. They have traditional art world adoption. I want to have one too, because it’s in the moment.
I think chromies are an interesting buy here. I’m curious, do you have a take on anything in the NFT world from like a just like, hey, these are probably going to get some more attention as it heats up.
I mean, I don’t think my stance has changed on that, right? I think CryptoPunks and Chromie Squiggles and more CryptoPunks than anything else.
I think that’s the only, in my opinion, I know in crypto people throw around what’s a blue chip, what’s like higher tier, whatever. Like to me, CryptoPunks are the only blue chip asset in the NFT space.
I think if you want to be long NFTs, CryptoPunks are the number one way to do it. And yeah, I think that’s not to say that there’s other places to make money.
I think my CryptoPunks bag and my Chromie Squiggle bag are my two biggest collections that I have NFT exposure in.
And yeah, it’s like I’m not, I guess like to me, I’m just not necessarily interested unless like, again, unless maybe the narrative changes around something of like buying an older NFT collection just for the sake of buying it, just because I think other people will buy it.
I think that, bless you, I think that CryptoPunks are there. But I, you know, in terms of like when people want to display that wealth, right? I think at the highest levels, when people want to take profits, CryptoPunks are where it’s at, right?
And so yeah, I mean, I guess like I haven’t really looked, I’ve been looking more at like new NFT projects. I think like one of the things, yeah, like there’s definitely gonna be money made in some of these older ones.
But like, you know, a lot of these new NFT projects are the ones where it’s like in crypto, right? Like every cycle has new winners.
And you just, what you have to do is identify whatever those new winners are pretty early. Because that’s not to say that the other ones won’t go up, but the ones that will outperform the most are the ones that are new paradigms, right?
Which is why like I found Quotron is really interesting. It’s a new paradigm. You know, like, you know, holding an NFT and getting paid to hold that NFT is like, we’ve never seen that before. So that to me is like super interesting.
Well, like, I’m super bullish on Quotrons. Obviously, I’ve been very public about this. I hold, what, 13, 14, 15, something like that. Currently, it’s a big bag. Floor is $10,000 almost $9,000 somewhere in that range.
We see more holders, more alignment, it seems between Quotrons, Inc. and Kraken, which makes this NASDAQ investment so interesting to me.
Look, I, for any of the Quotron holders that are watching right now, my expectations, you know, my personal just from like reading the tea leaves, being somebody who minted board APAC club, somebody who’s been an early adopter, a title that I like to hold on.
I really do believe we’re about to see a meta come out for yield producing and revenue capturing NFTs that are part of an ecosystem.
I do believe that we’re probably going to see others hop on like, and I think it’s a good thing, right, to be like the early leader in a meta.
But I cannot under emphasize the fact that we have multi billion dollar names, huge companies, huge traditional finance, all kind of in the same ecosystem and aligned.
And I think that is where the question that has come and the text that has come of Hunter, you know, you’re up so big, why don’t you, why don’t you take some profit, why don’t you, you know, take some off the top here, is that, well, I don’t think we’ve really even seen the party start here when you have a NASDAQ investment to Kraken who’s about to launch a chain that has their own decentralized exchange, Perp Exchange.
And obviously is going to make a splash with something at some point here. It should get interesting. So I’m very excited.
Yeah, agreed. So we’ll see. We’ll see what happens.
We will see.
Gee, anything else you want to go over here this morning?
Like I said, I think there’s some buying opportunities, cryptos beat up a bit, CPI is going to be the one, I think, anchor in the in the sand for anybody trying to get stuff moving over the next 24 hours.
Any tips for CPI on how to play it expectations?
No, I think that, you know, if it comes in hot and not good for break cuts immediately, it comes in like good and don’t need to overthink it.
Yeah. But yeah, I believe, again, I think there’s some concern. We saw a lot of people taking full port sell positions on FOMO and pump over the last 24 hours.
Look, cash is king spot is king during a risky asset to overexpose. It never hurts to have that as USDC in the wallet.
To anybody who’s listening again, give questions, topics, guests you want to see on the show. Let us know.
We’ll be back on Tuesday, 1030 a.m. I believe Cimarron from the Sey and Monaco Foundation will be joining us.
Maybe Thursday, we’ll get on good. Alexander will get on another guest.
We’re returning to the guest episodes next week. So looking forward to that, as always.
Thank you for tuning in and we’ll catch you on the next one. Cheers, guys.